Comments on: AoA Circulates H1N1 Hoax

By: David N. Brown

David N. Brown — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:47:50 +0000

A little bit of followup. After more investigation, I have found that there was actually a suspension of seasonal flu vaccination. This would correspond to what Burd reports as “official suspension of regular flu vaccination”, and at THAT point it’s pretty clear that he means the regular flu vaccine. However, I still find it suspicious that he fails to be equally clear in subsequent statements. In any event, it is clearly his intent to present an alleged problem with the seasonal vaccine as good reason not to receive the H1N1 vaccine.

By: Risa

Risa — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:00:27 +0000

It was announced on the Friday (Oct. 30th) that there would be less vaccine shipped to the provinces than originally expected, and this definitely contributed to the “run” on the vaccine on Saturday. The official reason given (I leave it up to you to judge its truth) was that GSK was changing production for the next 2 week period to non-adjuvanted vaccine for pregnant women and small children (in Canada the general H1N1 vacccine contains an adjuvant—as there is inadequate data (studies) on adjuvants in pregnancy, this recommendation was made on the side of caution. Anti-vaccers will, of course, use this fact to imply there is some known risk to pregnant women—the truth is that we just don’t know. It is the first time an adjuvant has been used in a Cdn flu vaccine, though they are used in many common childhood immunizations, and from my reading I learned that adjuvants have been used in flu vaccines in Europe in tens of millions of people for more than a decade now.) The timing of this production change was particularly awful as recent data from the WHO suggested pregnant women could safely take the adjuvanted vaccine, but this was unknown at the time the order was placed. Note too that you can make more shots using adjuvant (the amount of antigen—dead virus—in 1 non-adjuvanted shot can be made into 4 shots with adjuvants), so this also explains the lower quantities being shipped (and, IMHO, at least some of why the US has such a shortage of vaccine).

I have examples on my blog of how data is being misrepresented by some arguing for the anti-vac / pro-conspiracy theory side. See especially “Last Year’s Flu season doesn’t mean what you think it does”, as well as the “Bus stop blog” and the one “another Inaccurate H1N1 blogpost and my response.” Hope it is helpful. I welcome comments made in a civilized tone—disagreement is great, I learn! But not when folks are rude or name-calling, etc. :-)

By: David N. Brown

David N. Brown — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:35:07 +0000

I had learned since writing this that there had been a vaccination stoppage. My understanding is that this was after Burd’s article was published. I had suspected that this was the result of a “run” on vaccine centers, and your information is of great interest. The possibility crossed my mind that a rumor about the vx being pulled could have contributed to this. It’s also conceivable that anti-vax groups saw what was coming and timed their releases so that unrelated developments would appear to substantiate it.

I will definitely check out your blog. One more thought: I have noticed that anti-vax commenters are showing resistance to reports that there are vaccine shortages. Undoubtedly this is because the profit-driven gov/pharma conspiracy they imagine would be too powerful and smart to be tripped up by conventional logistics problems.

By: Risa

Risa — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:08:14 +0000

I am a Canadian, and I live in the province that suspended vaccinations entirely for a few days (Alberta). This had NOTHING whatsoever to do with safety or effectiveness of the vaccine; it was due to overwhelming line-ups and a poorly planned first offering of vaccinations in my province. Most regions in Canada restricted the vaccine at first to those science (from around the world!) is showing to be a higher risk of serious complications from H1N1: e.g., asthmatics, pregnant women, etc. In Alberta, the decision was made to offer the vaccine to everyone—no prioties or sequencing. Right before vaccinations became available here (Mon. Oct 26th), there was heavy media coverage of the H1N1 death of an otherwise healthy 13 year old boy in Ontario (healthy enough to play in a hockey tournament less than 48 hours before his rapid-onset death). This spooked people into getting the shot, or at least taking it more seriously for their children, and we got crazy line-ups with folks waiting anywhere from 2-7 hours for a shot—this included lining up outside in the cold AB weather! The decision was made after Saturday’s clinics, which were so overwhelmed by line-ups that folks were being turned away before they even opened for the day (as the nurses can only do so many) to cease all vaccinations and come up with a different strategy. Vaccinations resumed a few days ago, first available to children under 5 (birth certificate needed), then pregnant women, and now it is being offered to more groups.

Alberta’s latest stats show 546 H1N1 hospitalizations and 25 deaths—and these are the lab-confirmed cases only, not the “suspected” ones. Here’s the link:

http://www.health.alberta.ca/h.....cases.html

I am of two minds on this. I have read reports saying flu kills 2000-4000 Canadians per year, and since AB has about 10% of the population, I’d expect 200-400 deaths per year from seasonal flu. 25 H1N1 deaths therefore seems low. On the other hand, the Alberta Health Services website has a “Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Response Plan” link of their page (blue button; it’ll open a pdf file):

http://www.albertahealthservices.ca/658.asp

And in that report (which I largely ignore as it is full of “best guesses” as to how many will eventually die, numbers I don’t put much stock in) at the end of the second paragraph on page 7 it says, “seasonal influenza usually results in about 17 deaths annually in Alberta.” If this is the true number, I am mystified at why everyone keeps saying H1N1 is a mild flu.

I’ve been writing about H1N1 for a while now on my blog, and doing my best to take a more even-handed approach than you’ll find in the media if you are interested.

By: David N. Brown

David N. Brown — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 04:24:32 +0000

No offense was taken. I would say, in response to your additional comments, that all evidence indicates that anti-vax activity works in cycles (with drops occurring with outbreaks of preventable disease). Urban legends also commonly go through cycles of revival. My major goal in writing about this is to provide a body of observation and theory which people can work from the next time the cycle repeats.

By: Visitor

Visitor — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 10:44:53 +0000

David,

Sorry if I was rude. I agree about the hoax, and have a lot of time for your contributions. I was probably just feeling a little testy about any sense that their website was any kind of credible source which ought to be corrected when in error. It’s plainly nothing but an anti-vax front.

On which point, I yesterday looked at the website of the Autism Society of America, expecting more of the same.

I have to say, though, that apart from their somewhat dilatory failure to update their page on the omnibus hearing (ie give the results), they seem to have kept themselves (or at least their website) on a very credible path.

I’d probably like to see more engagement with them because I think in the UK the vaccine-autism debate is finished, and in America it’s flatlining.

By: David N. Brown

David N. Brown — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:49:29 +0000

“Visitor”,
I can respect your challenge. A major reason why I find anti-vaccine groups of interest is that I can see many ways in which they draw upon older folklore and “archetypes”. I think a “folkloric” approach is the best way to account for their potential impact.

I would also like to clarify my opinion on the role of legends vs. deliberate hoaxes. Where the two overlap, I think that it is usually the legend that comes first. I have two major reasons for this: First, hoaxers in general appear to have a limited capacity for imagination and inventiveness (as seen blatantly in art forgers). Second, blaming a hoaxer does not explain why people believed in the hoax. The general lesson to be drawn is that identifying “cranks and liars” is only part of understanding the root of a problem.

By: Shanna

Shanna — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:15:18 +0000

When I said they were obese I was meaning prior to catching the swine flu. Most of the adults who have gotten really sick have had pre exiting conditions such as obesity.

I am not quite sure who should determine what is blog worthy. I personally feel that the person making the post feels it is worthy of attention or would not have taken the time to write it. If you aren’t interested in the topic, why bother taking the time to comment.

By: Visitor

Visitor — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 12:09:16 +0000

Not meaning to be rude or anything, but I’m slightly mystified as to why a loony anti-vax website’s crap is seen to be worth blogging about. As if these people should be setting our agenda, or be something we need to pay attention to.

I sometimes wonder whether autism is thought to have enough going on within it, as a field, to sustain a blog.

I mean why do we even want in our heads what the age of autism idiots think about flu vaccines? We know they are controlled by unscrupulous cranks and liars. So why bother?

By: Laurentius Rex

Laurentius Rex — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 09:52:52 +0000

Well there is a new one, I can see how obesity might arise out of swine flu if lack of appetite is not one of the symptoms, thus

Whatever is laying me low at the moment had meant that I have not been getting as much excercise lately as usual, I have not gone for my usual walks, gone swimming or to the gym in over 2 weeks now :)

BTW I have found onions very effective for absorbing the smell of paint, that does work, of course it is this ability that gives rise to the urban legend that what works for bad odours works for “miasma” too.