On the other hand, if you don’t have a point to make, please disregard the message.

Prometheus

That is a non-issue since it applies to all influenza seasons.

“Just imagine how much more vaccine might be available if more companies were willing to make influenza vaccines.”

Since a majority of the population does not use the vaccine on a recurring basis, why waste time with “Science” fiction?

“Since that horse got stuck in the gate, it definitely will not win or place and it would be a miracle if it ‘shows’ when it comes to the herd.”

The point of an analogy is to make the writer’s point more clear, not less.

The efficacy of the H1N1 vaccine is not affected by its availability. Just imagine how much more vaccine might be available if more companies were willing to make influenza vaccines.

Then ask yourself why they don’t.

Prometheus

Since that horse got stuck in the gate, it definitely will not win or place and it would be a miracle if it “shows” when it comes to the herd.

• H1N1 flu has been confirmed to have killed a certain number of people.
• This number is somewhat greater than the number that died of influenza last year.
• If we assume that H1N1 is just as contagious as last year’s influenza, then H1N1 is deadlier.
• Conversely, if we assume H1N1 is just as deadly as last year’s influenza, then it must be much more contagious since more people must be getting it.
• Either way, there is cause for concern, and if it turns out to be no deadlier, then that must mean it is much more contagious, and vaccination actually becomes more important as a means of containing the virus. Unfortunately, the current stock of vaccine is inadequate to this end, but it is wise to vaccinate care providers so they do not pass it on to those especially vulnerable.

“Most years you have better odds in Vegas that they guessed right for the prevalent strains.”

This shows poor understanding of both influenza vaccine development and gambling.

The fact is that picking the “correct” strains to make the influenza vaccine is a bit of a gamble. The group that picks the virus strains for the Northern Hemisphere vaccine looks at which strain(s) are most prevelant in the Southern Hemisphere in their winter and generally picks the top three (and vice versa for the Southern Hemisphere).

Most of the time, that works pretty well. Once in a while (such as the 2007- 2008 influenza season), a virus strain that was a minority strain in the Southern Hemisphere “comes from behind” and is a significant problem in the Northern Hemisphere.

The vaccine committees try to “better the odds” by picking three strains, but there are times when even that doesn’t cover the essential randomness of nature.

The alternative, of course, is to switch to picking four or five virus strains, but that increases the cost and time to make the vaccine without completely preventing a “come from behind” influenza “winner”.

Another alternative – favored by a vocal minority – is to throw our hands up in despair because there will always be a chance that the influenza vaccine will miss the dominant influenza strain.

As for “Vegas” – if they are giving odds on the seasonal influenza vaccine (and they may, because they’ll bet on anything in Vegas), they would base them on the past performance of the vaccine committees and add just a bit for the “house cut”. So, you wouldn’t get “better odds in Vegas” (‘cuz the house always wins).

As for the H1N1 (“Swine”) influenza vaccine – that is a single strain vaccine that you won’t get odds on in Vegas – the “fix” is in because it is directed at a single strain of the virus.

Prometheus

Most years you have better odds in Vegas that they guessed right for the prevalent strains.

Even if true—it isn’t true this year. We know exactly a strain that is prevalent.

And, still, people are fighting the vaccine.

Very telling, that. It isn’t whether the vaccine has the correct strains or not. It is simply that it is a vaccine.

Most years you have better odds in Vegas that they guessed right for the prevalent strains.

Are you another of our hit-and-run commenters?

Just in case you aren’t, you’ve never heard of a phase III study apparently?

Here’s one on a Rotavirus vaccine (not made by Dr. Offit), discussing the efficacy before the licensure.

Now, if you are talking about the influenza vaccine, true each year’s vaccine isn’t tested for efficacy. BUT, it is essentially the same vaccine as used in previous years, with only the virus strain changed.