March is the month for college basketball tournaments, “March Madness”. An autistic teen picked the winners in the first two rounds of the tournament according to the story: Autistic Teen Picks First Two NCAA Rounds Perfectly
http://www.nbcchicago.com/syndication?id=88949517&path=%2Fhome%2Ftop_stories
The odds of doing this randomly are quite high. Even experts have failed to predict the outcome so far:
ESPN estimates around 4.78 million played in their bracket challenge, but no one picked all the games correctly. The leader at ESPN’s bracket has already missed four games.
Spoiler alert–here’s the last couple paragraphs.
Alex picked Purdue to win the whole thing. That just happens to be his brother’s alma mater.
“They’re his favorite for that reason,” Diane said. Or maybe he knows something no one else does.
I have an autistic teenage son (Aspergers Syndrome),this is just another example that these people are very special and not weird,freaks, or kids to be put in institutions. It’s articles like this that show our society that we can learn from people on the autistic spectrum.
Maybe he’s following the patterns. But then, he could just have got lucky.
The chances of this story being true are not good. No one based on rosters and statistics would have picked Kansas to lose to Northern Iowa. Hunches are played, and alma maters pull at the heart strings but this kid did it by studying the teams, and using skills superior to those of NCAA selection committee and the odds makers, not only picked Kansas to lose but Gerogetown and Villanova as well.
Ian, long chances can happen. In the 1990’s a challenge was held. A stockbroker competed against a chimpanzee to pick stocks. The stockbroker used his skills, the chimpanzee threw darts at a wall with the names of stocks on it. The chimpanzee’s portfolio outperformed the stockbroker’s. Sheer blind chance but it happened. Maybe this is also just chance.
The streak is broken:
http://backporch.fanhouse.com/2010/03/26/autistic-teens-perfect-ncaa-tournament-bracket-is-no-more/
Julian, but this was not a long chance. It was a young man using his superior analytical skills to compile his perfect brackets. AS for the chimp example, which may be apocryphal, it would be as if the chimp could read and carefully aimed each dart to pick the high performing stocks.