David Kirby has been chewing away at the edge of the CDDS data since it became apparent that he’d screwed up and actually set himself (and the thiomersal hypothesis) an actual measurable target (eek!). I can’t believe there isn’t anyone in the autism community who doesn’t know about the CDDS’ data and its role from Saviour of the thiomersal hypothesis to Villan of the thiomersal hypothesis. But just in case, here’s a potted history. For (lots) more search my site for ‘cdds’ and you’ll get lots more background reading.
1) Kirby writes EoH and is spoon-fed the Rollens line that we’re in the midst of an autism epidemic and that the CDDS data proves this by going up and up and up.
2) Thiomersal is removed from its preservative role in vaccines and by Feb 2002 there is an estimated 1.9% of vaccines left containing thiomersal.
3) Geier paper indicating that CDDS data is going down following removal of thiomersal
4) Kirby crows about this, refers to CDDS data as ‘the gold standard’ of autism data
5) Transpires Geier dip is a load of bollocks – CDDS data still going up
6) Kirby says (paraphrasing) – if CDDS data not falling by 2007 its a sever blow to the thiomersal hypothesis.
7) 2007 – Happy New year
8) CDDS data still climbing
9) First quarter for 2007 in – CDDS data still climbing
10) CDDS data abandoned by Kirby/Rollens et al in favour of educational data in the hopes _this_ data will show them what they want it to
11) No one really talks about CDDS data anymore
Quite early along this line several skeptical bloggers including myself, Do’C, Interverbal, Joseph and Autism Diva all said over and over again: ‘Yeah, hi, no actually you can’t use CDDS data to prove or disprove either the autism epidemic or the role of thiomersal. Here’s the disclaimers on the CDDS website that explains why not.’
Which brings us to yesterday and a post to the Yahoo EoH group from one D.Kirby reading:
This is interesting. Calif Dept of Health Services will be presenting DDS data at IMFAR
They will report that the number of 3-5 year old cases was still rising as of Sept 2006 – thus no evidence for a major role for thimerosal in ASD was found.
But, the abstract makes a very interesting point. It says that: “Limitations of the DDS database and lack of individual exposure data prevent conclusions, based on these data, about thimerosal as a cause or modifier of autism in a specific subgroup or child.
(Emphases are mine)
I read this to mean that one cannot apply the California data to prove that a specific group or child (ie one with a genetic predisposition) was NOT harmed by thimerosal. Also, there is no way to know for sure exactly how much mercury individual children were exposed to during the period in question.
Please, someone explain to me why I am wrong, and that includes any lurkers out there who believe that the California numbers mean it is time to close the thimerosal books once and for all.
I am being serious. I really thought these numbers were probably the death knell of this hypothesis, and they may still be. But it seems that the State of California would have us interpret these numbers with a bit more caution.
The abstract is below. ALL comments welcome, and that includes skeptics. Thanks. DK
No dude, you’re not wrong. Know why? *This is exactly what we’ve been telling you for the last two/three years*
Nobody has ever claimed that the CDDS data can disprove the epidemic or the thiomersal hypothesis. What we _said_ was that you couldn’t use it to _prove_ it either.
What CDDS will be presenting is exactly what they say – that CDDS can be used to demonstrate no correlation between autism and thiomersal for a select group of individuals. That doesn’t mean thiomersal _didn’t_ cause autism or that it _did_. It means CDDS can’t show causation one way or the other. I’m so glad that’s finally filtered through.
Bear in mind the ramifications of this Mr Kirby. CDDS data cannot be used to prop up the epidemic hypothesis any more. I think you can finally see that. I hope we can expect to see you publicly putting people right on that. Maybe a post on your HuffPo blog?
And let me tell you what _really_ worries me about all this Mr Kirby. Firstly, you swallowed this whole debacle hook line and sinker. The Mercury mums and dads sold it to you and you just believed them. Aren’t you supposed to be an investigative reporter? Where was the investigation? Secondly, you and others have been using this non-connection as the _sole epidemiology_ to prop up the thiomersal and epidemic hypothesis. Now that the penny’s finally dropped where does that leave you?
I’ll close by asking you a favour Mr Kirby. You were spoonfed this idea and swallowed it whole without thought. Now you’ve guessed you were wrong. You’re being spoonfed clinical papers that are equally bad. You seem to be swallowing them whole. Please. Please go and talk to actual, real scientists about them.
More
Dad of Cameron‘s take on this.
Diva’s take on this.
Left Brain Right Brain 
Yeah, Kirby’s an investigative reporter alright.
Compare his approach to that of Dr. Grinker’s. When one wants to find support for an hypothesis, one must do their best to first try to disprove it.
This Kirby character is one sad mother——.
Any clown could have told him that the California DDS figures don’t answer the thimerosal question. They never did. However, idiot that he is, he used them (as Wakefield also did) to falsely claim that they gave measures of rising autism incidence, which they then both linked to vaccines. However, admission to the DDS network of centres could not be used for this purpose – and ever since the very first report, again and again, California said they couldn’t be used for this purpose.
So now – when the figures carry on up after thimerosal is gone from the vaccines – he takes the warning (that has always been there) and uses it to imply that California is hedging its bets.
Perhaps now’s the time to recall Kirby’s words to a conference called by Wakefield (and published at that tosser’s Thoughtful House website):
“Thank God we have a media and thank God we have parents like the ones in SafeMinds who stayed on top of this. Otherwise we would never have gotten this information. I’m not even an investigative reporter. These people just dumped documents on me and I went through them.”
Come in Mr Kirby, your time is up. You should get back to gay holiday features, which is what you do best.
So will Kirby keep swallowing or will he finally spit?
Ack, it’s just so not fair…the UK gets Brian Deer and the US gets Kirby and Olmsted.
Last year I sent out a few emails to reporters who had written about autism saying ..hey there’s another angle you might want to look at.
Time to do that again.
Gross threshold met and surpassed.
!http://www.blinne.org/photos/uncategorized/siren.gif!
Anna says: Ack, it’s just so not fair…the UK gets Brian Deer and the US gets Kirby and Olmsted.
Anna, it is worse than that. Brian Deer forced Wakefield out of the UK and foisted him on us. For revenge, we could get Olmsted to go to the UK…
Better, I think Wakefield could return to the UK and take Kirby and Olmsted with him…
Or more humanely, maybe Wakefiled will take Kirby and Olmsted with him and move to an isolated island with no vulnerable inhabitants, or maybe the South Pole could use a doctor and two sloppy, biased journalists, and they should take Blaxill with them. Blaxill seems to have fed garbazh data to both Kirby and Olmsted…. and I think Blaxill’s child was a patient of Wakers, too…
Wow, David Kirby is backpedaling on his original position while distorting the statements made by others. How very original. Next you’ll tell me he believes mercury is caused by power plants and crematoriums.
No, no, no. Not power plants and crematoria. *Plumes of industrial smoke crossing the Pacific from China.* I kid you not, that’s what Kirby said. Go ask Arthur Allen: he was an eyewitness.
Kirby spotted.
I sure hope that bike has handlebars. No I don’t.
Oh I praise you and this post. I keep up with your writings frequently to counter a mom I have had to sit with in a speech/ot waiting room for 3 years. Kirby follower to the T!!!! I always need good and quick comebacks for her. THANK YOU!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
That pic is a RIOT!!!
Oh and while we’re on jokes at the expense of David Kirby, did anyone know that there was a video game character called Kirby in the old Super Nintendo era?
A pink ball that bounces around a lot.
Sound familiar?
DING!
How ironic that some of Kirby’s powers featured him flying through space on a star, filling himself with air to float around and eating parts of the enviroment and spitting them back out at his enemies.