Generation Rescue is making a big deal out of their “study” on autism and vaccines. This was a very dishonest attempt to promote their view on autism and vaccines, no doubts about that.
While analyzing their study, I realized how much easier it is to think like someone from Generation Rescue. Rather than challenging my own conclusions, why not go the GR way and start with a conclusion and look for data–any data–to support it! This is a LOT less work, and, heck, fun too!
Let’s take a look at the question, Does the MMR vaccine cause autism? Well, GR has conveniently given us enough data to draw a conclusion! Forget the fact that the GR “data” is bunk. Remember, no critical thinking allowed for this analysis–are we not pseudoscientists? We are Gee-Ar!
Let’s look at autism prevalence by country and compare that to whether they use the MMR vaccine or not. That sounds like we should be able to come to some definite conclusions!
Here are the autism prevalence by country and whether they use the MMR shot in their schedule. (European data are here, Israel here, Japan here).
We are going to ignore the data from the United States. Why? Because it doesn’t fit our conclusions, silly. If you are going to think like GR, go all the way, I say!
Country, prevalence, MMR status:
Denmark: 1 in 2,200. MMR at 15 months
Norway: 1 in 2,000. MMR at 15 months
Iceland: 1 in 1,100. MMR at 18 months
Israel: 1 in 1,000. MMR at 12 months.
Sweden: 1 in 862. MMR at 18 months
Finland: 1 in 719. MMR at 14-18 months
France: 1 in 613. MMR at 12 months and second shot at 13-24 months
Japan: 1 in 475. No combined MMR
Wait a minute–who has the highest prevalence? Japan!!!!
Who doesn’t use the combined MMR shot? Japan!!!
Pretty conclusive, I say (as long as I have my Generation Rescue Thinking Cap on!). MMR doesn’t cause autism!
Hey LeftBrain/RightBrain–this is too tempting. It is so much easier than real blogging. As compared to real scientific research, GR research is a snap! I may just have to accept the vaccine hypothesis just to save some time!
[edit to include correction from the comments!]
Left Brain Right Brain 
Hey, that IS fun!
(Psst–I think you have a typo. Shouldn’t it be: “Wait a minute–who has the HIGHEST prevalence?”)
I think you meant the highest prevalence is in Japan, not the lowest.
A recent Israeli study (I think mentioned in one of your previous blogposts) estimated the prevalence of autism at ~1:500, btw.
Not directly related to this particular deduction, but I’m still trying to figure out how they calculated the number of mandatory vaccines per country in this sorry excuse for a study – it looks like they count each vaccine dose as one vaccine for the USA, but bunch all the doses of a given vaccine together for the other countries – to make it look like every other country in the world administers substantially fewer vaccines than the US.
You are both correct–sorry for the mistake!
estherar–the GR method of counting vaccines is by shot…sort of. So, MMR is one “vaccine” even though it contains antigens against 3 diseases.
Since the US doesn’t use the combo MMR+varicella shot, GR counts the MMRV shot in other countries as 2 vaccines.
I’ve tried counting the “vaccines” in a number of different ways and I still can’t come up with “36” for the US. I can come up with higher numbers if I count combination vaccines – like the MMR – as three, but I can’t find any way to come up with 36.
I suspect that the “scientist” (e.i. marketing expert in a lab coat) at GR mis-read the 2006 recommended vaccine schedule. There were two vaccines (meningococcus MCV4 and pneumococcus PPV) that were recommended only for children at high risk. On the printed 2006 schedule, these vaccines were surrounded by a red dashed line that may have been missed by GR in their haste to “publish”.
(see: http://www.keepkidshealthy.com/welcome/immunizations/2006_immunization_schedule.html )
Of course, the whole idea of counting “shots” instead of actual live virus strains or antigens is laughable, but that’s what we’ve come to expect.
If GR had done their homework, they would have found that the current vaccination schedule – whether it is 36, 34, 42 or 54 “shots” – has fewer antigens than the schedule back in 1989, when the process was “less commercialized” (Huh?). But let’s not let the facts get in the way of an advertising campaign.
Prometheus
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Here’s a little quiz. Which deluded idiots said the following?
#1 ‘We’ve seen just a skyrocketing autism rate. Some people are suspicious that it’s connected to the vaccines. This person included. The science right now is inconclusive, but we have to research it.’
#2 ‘We don’t know what, if any, kind of link there is between vaccines and autism – but we should find out.’
#3 ‘There’s strong evidence that indicates that it [autism] has got to do with a preservative in vaccines.’
Answers…. #1 is Barack Obama, #2 is Hillary Clinton, #3 is John McCain. Hell, what do they know?
Only #2 and #3 are actually correct quotes. #1 even has video available of him pointing to the ‘person included’, which was made freely available by his own press team.
But anyway, what do they actually know in comparison to say, Paul Offit or any randomly selected epidemiologist, autism specialist or immunologist?
Answer – quite possibly very little and likely to be obtained second hand from advisors.
Evidently, they don’t know much about autism epidemiology. They need to stick to politics.
Prometheus–I put this response in a different post originally and I’m copying it here now:
I think the 36 comes from the list on this advert by Generation Rescue.
http://tinyurl.com/GR-propaganda-1
1) Influenza (prenatal)
2) HepB (Birth dose)
3) HepB (1 month)
4) DTaP (2 months)
5) Hib (2 months)
6) IPV (2 months)
7) PCV (2 months)
8) Rotavirus (2 months)
9) HepB (4 month)
10) DTaP (4 months)
11) Hib (4 months)
12) IPV (4 months)
13) PCV (4 months)
14) Rotavirus (4 months)
15) HepB (4 month)
16) DTaP (6 months)
17) Hib (6 months)
18) IPV (6 months)
19) PCV (6 months)
20) Rotavirus (6 months)
21) HepB (6 month)
22) Influenza (6 months)
23) Hib (12 months)
24) MMR (12 months)
25) Varicella (12 months)
26) PCV (12 months)
27) Hep A (12 months)
28) DTaP (15 months)
29) Hep A (18 months)
30) Influenza (18 months)
31) Influenza (30 months)
32) Influenza (42 months)
33) MMR (48 months)
34) DTaP (48 months)
35) IPV (48 months)
36) Influenza (54 months)
Note that six vaccines are influenza. Flu shot uptake is low, but that doesn’t matter in an advertising campaign.
Note that 3 more are after 3 years, so they are beyond the time when autism would manifest.
Wrong. Have you done any research? EVERY one of those vaccines is giving to BABIES. Go to any “reputable” website that encourages immunizations and you will find these as well as the HPV vaccine which are being pushed on infants as well. 3 more are after 3 years.. what is this, a random guess? As far as the Flu shots go, they are recommending pregnant women and babies after 6 months of age get 4 shots a year ( yes, FOUR flu shots.. Influenza and H1N1) every year for the REST of their lives. Flu shot uptake is slow? Oh, Ok that is why it is sold out just about every where you go.. AND that Dr.’s and of course the CDC instill fear in masses by telling them if don’t get the flu shot they will risk death. PLEASE, I am 30 yrs old and I have NEVER had a flu shot in my life and I have only been to the hospital once with appendicitis. Wake up people and if you choose not to, please refrain form having children. Thanks.
“EVERY one of those vaccines is giving to BABIES. Go to any “reputable” website that encourages immunizations and you will find these as well as the HPV vaccine which are being pushed on infants as well.”
I don’t think 9-26 year-olds qualify as “infants”.
“3 more are after 3 years.. what is this, a random guess?”
Aside from Flu shots,
33) MMR (48 months)
34) DTaP (48 months)
35) IPV (48 months)
All three occur after 36 months – Not a random guess.
“As far as the Flu shots go, they are recommending pregnant women and babies after 6 months of age get 4 shots a year ( yes, FOUR flu shots.. Influenza and H1N1) every year for the REST of their lives.”
Uh, no. Children who’ve never had a flu shot get two doses, a month apart, after that, it’s one a year. Yeah, they’ll recommend the 2009 H1N1 vaccine for life alright. Priceless.
“Flu shot uptake is slow? Oh, Ok that is why it is sold out just about every where you go.. ”
Low, relative to the total population.
“AND that Dr.’s and of course the CDC instill fear in masses by telling them if don’t get the flu shot they will risk death. PLEASE, I am 30 yrs old and I have NEVER had a flu shot in my life and I have only been to the hospital once with appendicitis. Wake up people and if you choose not to, please refrain form having children. Thanks.”
Emily, are you a Poe?
If Emily is a Poe or not, I am always amazed by those who feel the need to comment on a ten month old post!
By the way, the MMR and varicella are only given after a child is a year old. Is that still considered an infant age? Last I saw the HPV was for age 11 and older.
I believe Emily needs some remedial parenting classes if she thinks eleven year old kids are infants. I’d hate to think what would happen when she tried to explain to her child’s fifth grade teacher that she needs to come in to breast feed her infant.
“Dr.’s and of course the CDC instill fear in masses by telling them if don’t get the flu shot they will risk death. PLEASE, I am 30 yrs old and I have NEVER had a flu shot in my life and I have only been to the hospital once with appendicitis.”
Let’s see… A few years ago, in a short period of time, 2 people were shot within walking distance of my house. But I wasn’t shot, so there couldn’t have been a serial shooter on the lose. I guess now the police will have to let the guys arrested and convicted in the shootings go.
Emily,
I wasn’t given the whooping cough vaccination as an infant. I got whooping cough and I nearly died – twice, so please take your warped logic and stick it where the sun doesn’t shine.
Perhaps whilst you’re at it you could ask yourself who the hell you think you are to tell others that if they don’t agree with your fringe views they should not be having babies!
I’m sick and tired of being criticised for being responsible and listening and understanding the peer reviewed science that says time and time again that there is no link and that you lot are talking out of your arses!
Hello friends –
Can someone tell me what a POE is? [and don’t just say I’m one!]
Thanks.
– pD
A Poe is a person pretending to hold a ridiculous position, but doing it so convincinly that it’s impossible to tell them apart from the people who actually hold that posistion.
Emily would qualify as a Poe as her pretend position is clearly in contradiction of the presented evidence yet she castigates other people for not doing their research even though it’s appearant she hasn’t done any effective and competant research herself.
Unfortunetly, the vaccine skeptic movement is full of such people. This isn’t a problem – as there are also people who are pro-vaccine that are the same – but as the consensus expert viewpoint is, or appears to be very much pro-vaccine, it’s not unreasonable to expect non-experts to provisionally accept the expert consensus unless they have significant evidence that indicates otherwise.
Thanks, Dedj, I didn’t understand the reference either. I now suppose it comes from “Poe’s Law”, which is discussed here:
http://rationalwiki.com/wiki/Poe's_Law
I suppose that essentially anyone who posts at AoA could, therefore, be a Poe.
Yes, that appears to be the chap.
I’ve just realised that, strictly speaking, my above explanation only applies to one possible ‘type’ of Poe.
It’s perfectly possible to be a Poe: a person who is parodying another viewpoint but their parody is indistinguishable from that viewpoint.
or
a Poe: a person who holds a viewpoint that is indistinguishable from a parody of that viewpoint.
As such, I’ve often wondered how many people at AoA are serious, how many are doing it for image, and how many are just poking fun at them.