Its that time of year again – quarterly release from CDDS.
Joseph was very quick off the mark with an analysis. I’m going to quote the main points, shut off comments here and point you straight to the source:
As we can see, CDDS autism caseload continues to have strong growth. There’s an unexpected increase in the caseload growth this quarter (what’s usually referred to as “New Cases” by mistake). The prior tendency was for population growth to stabilize. Annual growth (calculated against the corresponding quarter the year before) has dropped a bit, but it still has a long way to go before it matches population growth in the state of California, about 1%, as would be expected in the long run. There is strong growth in the 3-5 age range, which suggests there is no drop in administrative incidence.
Just as a reminder, the 3 – 5 cohort is the cohort that David Kirby agreed was the only one worth measuring.
Despite law changes (Lanterman Act, 2003) specifically aimed at decreasing caseload growth, it’s clear administrative prevalence will continue to increase for a long time to come, perhaps one more decade. Trends in the 3-5 age range do not support an incidence drop following removal of thimerosal from vaccines. I recommend Dr. Geier’s paper be renamed to “Upward Trends in Neurological Disorders Remain Strong Following Removal of Thimerosal from Vaccines” if the paper is to be salvaged in any way.
Indeed.
Meanwhile over on the EoH group, poster Lynn asked if anyone had analysed the new stats yet. From the ringing silence, I guess we can assume they have.
Left Brain Right Brain 
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