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Porphyrins, autism and enviromental militia

4 Dec

You know those nature programs where they film sharks in a feeding frenzy? That’s what I’m reminded of when a new test or treatment appears on the radar of the mercury militia. First there’s one lone parent taking a chomp but after a few minutes there’s a whole school of them twisting, turning, biting indiscriminatingly.

Porphyrins are the New Big Thing amongst the mercury militia. Never mind that the sole paper that exists on the subject (pertaining to autism) contradicts the Holy Edicts of DAN! and also fails to note that some forms of chelation affect how Porphyrin’s are measured and further, that the lead author of the study acknowledges the substantial grey areas and unaddressed discrepancies in the paper. Full steam ahead Jeeves and don’t spare the horses.

In a nutshell, these people believe that Porphyrins can be used to give a very accurate measure of how much mercury (or other metals) are in someone’s system. They send their kids wee off to a lab in France to be analysed at €80 a pop. The French test is considered the best as they test for Precoproporphyrin which is supposed to be a specific marker of mercury. Never mind the fact that only one scientist has ever found this association.

So how’s it panning out for the mercury boys and girls? Here’s a series of quotes from the Yahoo ChelatingKids2 Email Group:

A fellow listmate had her son tested twice– once over the summer which showed he had no elevated metals, and one this fall that showed he did indeed have elevated metal levels. She has sent an email to the lab asking about the differing results and has not received a response. I believe she is still trying to contact them.

FWIW, my neighbor’s dad happens to be a porphyrin specialist here in Boston (believe it or not– how many of those are there??). He reviewed lots of info for me– Nataf’s paper, my son’s results that showed very elevated metals across the board– and said he would have rejected the paper for publication had he been asked to review it. He said that fecal, not urine, should be used to measure the porphyrin levels. I sent an email to the lab inquiring about this and also received no response.

It concerns me that if someone does one test and goes on those results, do we know that those are accurate. I hate the idea of implementing treatment on a child based on less than accurate info. It is hard to GET good info I realize on the toxicity issue but just wondering if this is reliable enough to trigger chelating a child etc.

The answer is ‘no’. Here’s another one:

I just received the results of the French porphyrin test for myself and my 7 year old NT daughter, and the results also show severe lead and mercury toxicity. My daughters numbers are worse than my ASD son!

Sadly, this parent was considering chelating her NT daughter anyway even though….

My daughter is terrified of oral capsules and blood draws after seeing what her brother goes through

I’ll bet.

What’s the cut off point when an honest desire to help someone based on love for them and sound science to underpin your decision becomes a dangerous chasing after any sort of unproven treatment no matter what the consequences might be?

The scientist and author Michael Crichton once gave a speech about environmental issues that may as well have applied to the autism/vaccine issue:

We are basing our decisions on speculation, not evidence. Proponents are pressing their views with more PR than scientific data. Indeed, we have allowed the whole issue to be politicized—red vs blue, Republican vs Democrat. This is in my view absurd. Data aren’t political. Data are data. Politics leads you in the direction of a belief. Data, if you follow them, lead you to truth.

Increasingly it seems facts aren’t necessary, because the tenets….are all about belief. It’s about whether you are going to be a sinner, or saved. Whether you are going to be one of the people on the side of salvation, or on the side of doom. Whether you are going to be one of us, or one of them.

That’s sad, worrying, dangerous. And true. When did we start to let PR driven media become more important and carry more weight than scientific fact? When papers scream headlines about the evils of mercury causing autism what is it about the apocalyptic way the story is written that catches attention? We live in a world where we think we see threats at every turn. This is a world where I cannot videotape my kids school plays any more as its considered ‘a security risk’. This is a world that now exists in biblical terms like ‘terror alerts’ and ‘axis of evil’. No one conditioned to this hysteria is going to listen to the scientists simply repeating the fact that no science supports such an assertion. That won’t give us a fix of melodrama – maybe if we portray these scientists as part of a global conspiracy that might quicken our terror-conditioned pulses a bit.

There are people who get their ‘facts’ not from scientists but from people like this man – an American DJ names Don Imus. He is, apparently, an autism advocate. He also seems to be something of a racist bigot.

If I have wishes for Christmas its that we stop listening to hyped-up media merchants like the odious Mr Imus and start listening to actual scientists regarding autism and its causes.

Jock Doubleday’s $75,000 vaccine offer

27 Nov

Jock Doubleday, author of such excellent works as ‘The Burning Time (Stories of the Modern-day Persecution of Midwives)’ and ‘Lolita Shrugged (THE MYTH OF AGE-SPECIFIC MATURITY )’ (Jock is a middle aged man by the way) is most famous in the autism community as the creator of the $75,000 vaccine offer in which he;

…offers $75,000.00 to the first medical doctor or pharmaceutical company CEO who publicly drinks a mixture of standard vaccine additives ingredients in the same amount as a six-year-old child is recommended to receive under the year-2005 guidelines of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (In the event that thimerosal has recently been removed from a particular vaccine, the thimerosal-containing version of that vaccine will be used.)

The mixture will be body weight calibrated.

Doubleday claims;

14 doctors, or persons claiming to be doctors, have contacted me about publicly drinking the vaccine additives mixture. None have followed through.

Nobody seems sure why participants have to be doctors or big pharma CEO’s and not ordinary folks like you and me. I’m also not sure why Doubleday insists on such a bizarre contract that any participant must adhere to, including psychiatric evaluation, a history of any mental health based counselling (these are probably to add to the air of drama), an email exam of 10 questions regarding vaccine theory and history, the compulsory purchase and reading of at last five altie books on anti-vaccine woo, a 20 question written exam, a certificate of good health…oh, I give up read the rest here.

To be honest, I got bored just reading that contract. And that’s only Part A. If I was a more cynical man I’d say that’s not so much of a contract as an endurance test designed to make everyone with an actual life of their own say ‘Sod this, I could be having a curry or watching Father Ted‘, both of which are activities much more interesting and enjoyable than satisfying the terms of that contract. But then the same could be said of watching paint dry.

Of course, the point of all this is that it shows how few people are willing to ‘take the challenge’. Luckily for Doubleday, someone already ‘took the challenge’ in 1996.

Clinical course of severe poisoning with thiomersal, published by the then Journal of Toxicology – Clinical Toxicology (now just called Clinical Toxicology) was the case study of a German 44 year old man who ingested 5g Thiomersal.

Lets compare that to the maximum load that US kids got before 2001.

The average US child got 187µg of Hg from all thiomersal containing shots. If we bend the rules in favour of the thiomersal (and Doubleday) theory and say that a 1 stone (14 pound) child had had that total of 187µg of Hg we can compare that to our 44 year old man who weighed 60kg (9.4 stone or 132 pounds).

Child Adult Male
187µg of Hg 2,480,000µg of Hg1
13.36µg per pound2 18,787.87µg per pound3

15g Thiomersal = 5,000,000µg of Thiomersal. 5,000,000/49.6% (Mercury in Thiomersal) = 2,480,000µg of Hg
21 stone (14 pound) child 187/14pounds = 13.36µg per pound
3 9.4 stone (132 pounds) 2,480,000/132 pounds = 18,787.87µg per pound

I think we can easily state that this man got vastly more thiomersal per pound then any child would. Even if we inflate the weight of our adult subject to 25 stone (350 pounds) he still gets 7,085.71µg per pound – over 530 times the amount. As it is, using the real figures, he’s getting over 1,400 times more thiomersal than the infant.

So what happened to our German friend? Surely he must’ve had one of the most ‘severe’ cases of autism ever seen right?

He developed gastritis, renal tubular failure, dermatitis, gingivitis, delirium, coma, polyneuropathy and respiratory failure.

Hmm. Sure doesn’t look, act, sound or quack like a duck….I’m going to go right ahead and surmise that in this man’s case, after ingesting over 1,400 times more mercury from thiomersal than an infant that he developed no signs of autism whatsoever and in fact somehow managed to avoid becoming autistic.

And the eventual outcome?

The patient recovered completely…..The decline of mercury concentration in blood, urinary mercury excretion, and renal mercury clearance were not substantially influenced by chelation therapy

It also looks like his total course of recovery took about 5 months. All neurological symptoms were resolved in 46 days. Not several (and ever increasing amounts of) years.

Put your money away Mr Doubleday – its not needed.

Just Sayin’ Part IV

18 Nov

David Kirby: Whats with the scaremongering?

17 Nov

Letter from DOJ (980kb)

Ploughing through my email which had accumulated whilst I was ill, I found that David Kirby had published a piece on the upcoming Autism Omnibus hearings in the US. Go have a read.

NB: For the uninitiated, the Autism Omnibus court hearings are going ahead in June next year. They are a joint action brought against the vaccine claims court. These are important because it will be these hearings that determine whether there is any official recognition that thiomersal/MMR causes autism. This is almost certainly not going to happen. Mainly because vaccines don’t cause autism and there is no science to suggest they do, but also because the thiomersal/autism expert witnesses would be better termed expert witlesses. Geier, Haley, Hornig, blah blah blah – the same science and the same people that recently resulted in the thiomersal/RhoGAM/Autism court case being thrown out.

Anyway, back to David Kirby. He was blogging about a recent turn of events wherein the Special Master (the person who will be overseeing the whole trial) had asked for opinions from both claimants and the DOJ on granting public access to the trial. Both duly obliged. Of course, the response the DOJ gave was immediately leapt on by David Kirby. I’ll be doing something Kirby didn’t do in his blog entry and actually looking at the letter. I’ll also be quoting from both that letter and Kirby’s post. If you want the whole letter for yourself, you can download it from the link at the top of this page.

Kirby starts off by setting the mood:

Next year, a “Special Master” in an obscure Federal court known only to a few Americans will preside over a highly sensitive judicial matter of urgent national importance. The Bush Administration wants to hold the hearings in a sealed courtroom, off limits to the press and public, with stiff “sanctions” for any outsider who attempts to gain unauthorized access to the secretive proceedings within.

Terror trials in faraway Gitmo? Good guess. But these are vaccine trials on New York Avenue, in downtown Washington, at the U.S. Court of Federal Claims.

You may not know it, but there is an official federal “vaccine court,” where some 4,750 autism-related cases have been pending for years. Claimants believe the mercury-based vaccine preservative, thimerosal, and/or the MMR vaccine, contributed to their children’s autism, and they are seeking compensation from a special vaccine injury fund administered by the federal government.

So, apparently, the DOJ wants to hold the hearings in a sealed court, off limits to press and public with stiff sanctions for any outsider who attempts to gain unauthorized access to the secretive proceedings. I have to be honest, when I read that I was on Kirby’s side. It sounds terrible. Then I remembered that David Kirby has been known to tell the odd porky on occasion. and decided to reserve judgement until I’d read the letter. Now I have.

Firstly, what is particularly odd about denying public access to these proceedings? The DOJ state quite plainly that:

…public broadcast of federal trial court proceedings appears to be without precedent. Broadcast of criminal proceedings is banned by federal rule.

It would in fact be odd if they did agree to this. If the Omnibus memebrs believe they are special cases then they need to explain why.

And a sealed court Mr Kirby? Hardly. From the letter:

…respondent agrees that some arrangements, unique in Vaccine Act proceedings should be taken to permit Omnibus claimants and their counsel to observe the trial…..[a]udio webcast of the hearing to those claimants who do not attend in person appears to be the best available method to permit them to follow the trial.

I wouldn’t call that a sealed courtroom. All the people who need to hear what’s being said, can hear what’s being said. From a technical standpoint managing audio instead of both audio and video is both easier, cheaper and more reliable.

So what about these ‘stiff sanctions for any outsider who attempts to gain unauthorized access to the secretive proceedings’…? Well, first, I wouldn’t describe a hearing that is being broadcast to every claimant and their legal team to be secretive. That’s just silly hyperbole. Secondly, I’m not sure after reading the letter exactly what stiff sanctions would be directed against people attempting to get unauthorized access. The word ‘sanctions’ is mentioned once when laying out the conditions for being amenable to an audio stream.

The order authorizing access as specified would contain provisions for sanctions, including termination of the webcast, and the closing of the courtroom in the event of disruptive behaviour, witness intimidation, unauthorized access or other inappropriate conduct.

So sanctions would come into play if the rules were being broken. Said rules include unauthorized access to the feed. In other words, anyone trying to hack the media server. An audio feed goes one way only. If David Kirby wants to cosy up in a room with John Best whilst John’s accessing his protected feed then know one is ever going to know. As far as I know PsychicWare v 1.0 never made it out the concept room. Whether or not the parents feel like talking to press during the trial is, I would think, a matter for their ethical beliefs.

Kirby continues:

The plaintiffs and their attorneys have asked for complete transparency in every aspect of the tribunal, including public disclosure of all evidence and unhindered media access to the hearings. The few autism families whose medical records will be scrutinized as legal examples are waiving their right to privacy and confidentiality, so that their stories may finally be told in an open court of law.

Well, of course they have! It’s in their best interests to turn the whole thing into an OJ Simpson style media circus as quickly as possible. I’d ask anyone who witnessed the trials of Simpson or Michael Jackson – do you think justice was served by turning these trials into a media driven frenzy? Sorry America, but from over here they both looked like a pair of debacles.

There will be public disclosure of all accepted evidence. The DOJ letter makes it clear that they also desire that the official record of the hearing exists. What the Omnibus people want is a discussion on the quackery and pseudo-science that was recently thrown out in the RhoGAM case. And they want this discussed by the media. They know that journalists aren’t as exacting as a Daubert hearing and they know that the best way to win a case in US culture these days is trial-by-media. This is exactly why the DOJ wants to place the emphasis back on actual legal and scientific proceedings. As they state in their letter:

The general rationale behind the ban is preventing witness harassment or intimidation, minimizing disruption, preserving the dignity of judicial proceedings and maintaining a trial free of extraneous influence.

Now, if anyone thinks that the wory regarding witness harassment is far fetched they should consider the absolute vilification that Mercury Militia mainstays, the NAA rained down on scientist Paul Shattuck when he stated there was no good evidence for an epidemic one way or the other. They lied about his funding sources, blew up the fact that he knew someone who’d been disciplined once to insinuate he was involved and generally made the poor man’s life hell. Members of the Yahoo group that carries the name of Kirby’s book have posted the addresses and telephone numbers of scientists who publish science that doesn’t validate their beliefs and encouraged members to harass them with email campaigns and phone calls.

I can only imagine might happen to the poor people called to witness for the DOJ if their faces were made known. If the Mercury Militia want to get up in arms about this then they need to grow up and realise that their own childish irresponsibility led them to this exact outcome.

Likewise, I’d again ask readers to think about the influence the media exerted during the Simpson and Jackson cases. Wouldn’t it be nice to have a trial that’s not run by the paparazzi? Or to put it another way – maintain a trial free of extraneous influence.

Kirby continues with the amusing sleight of hand of stating:

The government may call this privacy, but I call it secrecy. In fact, there has been a long and unseemly history of secrecy when it comes to federal data on thimerosal and autism.

This ‘long and unseemly history’ as recounted by David Kirby relates to precisely one incident where the Geier’s tried to get access to VSD data and when they couldn’t, turned to plagiarism.

Kirby again:

But some documents have already been leaked, including one published in the Los Angeles Times showing that Merck officials knew of the cumulative and alarmingly high levels of mercury in vaccines way back in 1991, but said nothing about it to anyone.

Are there other incriminating memos from Merck (or Lilly or Glaxo, etc.)? My sources indicate that there are, but we may never get to see them. And now, by barring public access to the trial, we may never get to hear them, either.

So, the first paragraph as far as I can tell has absolutely no bearing on the science needed to establish thiomersal causes autism. Neither does it have any bearing on the issue of access to a trial. The second paragraph is, I’m sorry, a joke. Your sources Mr Kirby? I’d say anyone unable to remember the difference between 2005 and 2007 is in no position to pretend sources. And your invocation of a conspiracy theory is both specious and tiresome. Is this really a journalist or just someone who enjoys a good anti-science rant?

Sorry, more Kirby:

Whether he (the Special Master) decides for the parents, or for the DOJ, his ruling will forever be considered within a vacuum, subject to intense criticism from either side, unless he agrees that all thimerosal evidence should at long last be made public.

What unmitigated twaddle Mr Kirby. His ruling will be made in full view of all the claimants who wish to be there either in person or via the audio stream. This isn’t a case of evidence being made public or not, its an attempt to legitimise ‘science’ which is poor beyond belief.

If this UK resident can pass on any advice to the US it would be – ditch media trials. Ditch scaremongering. Ditch bad science. Ditch innuendo.

From autism epidemic to silent pandemic

12 Nov

Developmental neurotoxicity of industrial chemicals (320kb).

CBS news (amongst plenty of others) recently reported on a new study published in The Lancet

Exposure to industrial chemicals may be responsible for a “silent pandemic” of brain development disorders affecting millions of children worldwide, and not enough is being done to identify the risks.

In an essay published online in the journal The Lancet, the researchers identified 202 potentially harmful industrial chemicals that may be contributing to dramatic increases in autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and other brain disorders among children.

Roughly half of the chemicals are in common use, but very few have been tested to determine their impact on brain development.

Right. So ‘very few’ of the chemicals’ have been tested to determine their impact on brain development but they are being touted as the cause of a ‘silent pandemic’? How does that work exactly?

Don’t get me wrong – these things should be looked at to determine their safety but really, this is an example of hysterical journalism. Lets take a look at what the paper itself actually says.

This is from the abstract:

Neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism, attention deficit disorder, mental retardation, and cerebral palsy….causes are mostly unknown.

And what about this ‘silent pandemic’? Well, firstly, lets make sure we’re on the same page. This essay ups the ante from ‘epidemic’ to ‘pandemic’ meaning that the ‘epidemic’ is on a large international scale. OK, so –

The underlying idea is that there is a dose-dependent continuum of toxic effects, in which clinically obvious effects have subclinical counterparts. A pandemic of subclinical neurotoxicity is therefore likely to be silent—ie, not apparent from standard health statistics.

The authors draw comparisons between this and the pioneering work which identified the issues of Lead toxicity in kids. However, they fail to note that these studies had actual data to back up their hypothesis. This is in direct contrast to this essay which has no such data. In fact, in relation to the idea of an ‘epidemic’ of autism, the authors admit that:

Some experts have reported that the prevalence of certain neurodevelopmental disorders—autism and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder, in particular—might be increasing, but there are few data to sustain that position.

So, its clear that this ‘silent pandemic’, far from being a threat is totally hypothetical. Much as the authors might like to think it has happened, it is not apparent from any data that it has. The authors of this paper certainly failed to present _any_ supporting data.

Indeed, they even (inadvertently?) seem to exonerate thiomersal as a causative agent from their own investigation:

Substantial reductions have already been achieved in mercury use and release from hospitals and incinerators. A related substance, > ethylmercury, has been widely used as a preservative in vaccines, but neurotoxic risk has not been documented.

Very true.

Altogether this is an odd paper, which claims to support the idea that chemicals might play a role in causing neurodevelopmental disorders but fails to provide any evidence for that stance whatsoever.

If I was a more cynical person, I’d say somebody was trying to add to the ‘scientific’ knowledge being accumulated for the Autism Omnibus hearings next year as well as place the idea of poisoning in the public conciousness as well.

There’s a ‘Conflict of Interest’ statement on page 10:

P Grandjean has testified on behalf of the Natural Resources Defense Council in a court case in regard to mercury pollution from a chemical plant in Maine, USA. PJ Landrigan has testified on behalf of the State of Rhode Island, USA, in a lawsuit against the manufacturers of lead-based paint.

Very laudable. However, it fails to mention something else Grandjean is involved with. He’s an expert witness in the Autism Omnibus proceedings. That puts a slightly different slant on this weird essay.

Autism, scientology and the moonies

7 Nov

Introduction

I never imagined when I started blogging about autism just how deep the rabbit hole of quackery went. It never ceases to amaze me how the relationships between some of the people deeply involved in the mercury militia start to unravel with some occasionally disturbing results.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve come across some of the most disturbing relationships yet. As the title suggests, there seem to be disturbing links between some mercury militia members and the Unification Church (the moonies) and there are definite links between established scientologists and DAN! as well as other non-DAN! mercury militia resources. Most disturbing of all is the suggestion of a relationship between The Moonies and Scientology with an apparent agenda to encourage the mercury militia and possibly even help finance or otherwise aid the legal fight some parents are undergoing with relation to vaccines and autism.

Autism and The Moonies

The most direct connection between autism and the moonies is that of Dan Olmsted. Olmsted works for UPI which the Unification Church owns. As we all know, Dan Olmsted is a more than ready exponent of the mercury militia belief system, churning out credulous and easily refuted piece after piece. Clearly the aim here is not debate but propaganda.

But still, it never occurred to me that Olmsted might be working towards a UPI agenda until very recently. Not until a second UPI journalist, Lidia Wasowicz started working on the exact same story. Then I became interested. Why have two reporters covering the exact same story from the exact same perspective but independently of each other? Is it possible that some of the senior people at UPI felt Olmsted alone wasn’t getting the job done?

After all, the Moonies make no secret of their aim with UPI (and the Washington Times which they also own):

And how independent is the once-proud UPI? As Moon noted on Nov. 30, 2000, shortly after buying the news service, “The best way to become famous will be to write articles about Rev. Moon. The media organization that employs the reporters who write such articles and publishes them will be respected around the world. UPI was purchased just as it was about to collapse, and it is being supported now. UPI can write such articles.”

Or as the Rev put it on another occasion;

…to establish “the journalism of the Kingdom of Heaven” one first needs “the wire service of the Kingdom of Heaven…”

And to what end?

“Merely reporting the facts of the news will be much too elementary,” explains Moon. A more important role of the media is “to determine how to interpret and evaluate the facts, and thus provide the direction in which the audience is guided.

Quite. Its my opinion we’re now seeing that born out with the doubling up of autism-mercury journalism on UPI these days.

The editor-in-chief at the Washington Times felt so strongly about this that:

Washington Times editorial page editor William P. Cheshire and four of his staff members resigned during Borchgrave’s tenure as editor-in-chief charging that he had allowed an executive of the Unification Church to dictate editorial policy.

Some executives of UPI as well as being Moonies are also in the Korean CIA.

But what’s the motive? Why would the moonies want to push the idea of a vaccine link to autism?

If we take a look at the sort of businesses the Moonies own and/or invest in we can see that they have very healthy interests in two interesting money makers – sea fish restaurants and homoeopathic/naturopathic medicine. One of these interests is blamed for increases in mercury and the other is big business amongst autism/biomed practitioners. I’m given to understand that the US CAM market (Complimentary/Alternative Medicine) is worth about US$28billion per annum. It would definitely be in the Moonies interests for more people to eat mercury containing sea fish and to also buy more CAM products.

But that’s pretty spurious in terms of a link. Its a ‘maybe’. Its certainly not proven.

However, the odd coincidences keep mounting up. Dan Olmsted used to work closely with fellow UPI journalist Mark Benjamin until the latter left UPI. Before he did however, Benjamin also grew interested in the vaccine/autism hypothesis.

So where did Mark Benjamin go after leaving UPI? It seems that in March of 2005, Benjamin published his first story for his new employers – Salon.com. Three short months later, RFK Jr published his misbegotten Deadly Immunity piece. Indeed, two Benjamin articles are quoted on the thiomersal links page on Salon.com

Coincidence? Maybe.

Maybe this is too: An accompanying piece to RFK Jr’s piece was Lujene Clark’s sidebar describing the work of nomercury.org and her son’s autism. Its never been clear to me how Lujene and RFK jr came together to set this up. Until now:

Believe me, Dan Olmsted gets the connection! He is builing (sic) up to a climax with this series to debunk the Kanner theory of autism….He and Mark Benjamin broke the Larium story as well as being instrumental and the driving force behind exposing the Gulf War Syndrome.

Also note the date of this post. Also about three months or so before ‘Deadly Immunity’. The common thread between RFK Jr and Lujene Clark is Mark Benjamin via Dan Olmsted. One current UPI journo and one ex-UPI journo, both coming from a background of a news agency less interested in facts than making sure the ‘right’ interpretation is placed upon events.

But this is still just conjecture. I think its interesting and worth pursuing but it was just playful fantasy until a second UPI journalist suddenly started sharing mercury-militia propaganda publishing duties with Olmsted. That’s the most suspicious thing so far, but even that isn’t _very_ suspicious.

Of much more solid and worrying connection is the one to Scientology.

Autism and Scientology

Everybody knows that Scientology has an almost rabid outlook on psychiatry and what they deem psychiatric labels. Its so bad that Xenu-lover John Travolta is allegedly hiding the fact of his son’s autism for fear of offending his masters in Scientology.

Scientologists have a natural theoretical affinity with the mercury militia and in particular the DAN! ideology. They are firmly against medication and firmly in favour of ‘detoxification’ when combined with saunas. The belief is that detoxification ‘loosens’ the toxins which are then sweated out in intense saunas. Sounds familiar right?

Just like the moonies, scientology has untold business interests in all-natural and CAM based treatments, particularly detoxification treatments. So, when you combine business interests with religious zeal you get people highly motivated to move in on people they target.

Are there any scientologists targeting autism? Oh yes. Scary but true.

There is Nancy Mullan, MD, nutritional psychiatrist and Scientology owned Safe Harbor Medical Director. She attended a conference wherein she:

…reviews one of the most critical nutritional biochemical cycles which, when faulty, can contribute to autism, schizophrenia, depression, and bipolar disorder.

I’ve also been notified by commenter ‘culvercitycynic’ that Ms Mullan is also a registered DAN! doctor.

And here’s another Scientology front: Narconon Arrowhead. The Medical Director is a man named Gerald D. Wootan – he’s also a DAN doctor. Thank you to my anonymous friend who forwarded me that info :o)

Then there is Dr. Julian Whitaker who is with the Citizens Commission on Human Rights, established by the Church of Scientology to expose what the church calls psychiatric violations of human rights and who pushes a variety of CAM treatments including chelation. Guess who he’s friends with?

a special thanks to some special people – […] Dr. Julian Whitaker, Dr.Rashid Buttar…

Then there’s scientologist David Minkoff who once attended a Defeat Autism Yesterday conference, sharing a platform with Rashid Buttar, DAN! doctor Gunnar Heuser and Erin Giffin of Amy Yasko’s practice.

Minkoff is also well regarded by teh folks on Evidence of Harm email list such as MarK Sircus who says of the Scientologist:

…a fine physician…in the chelation and toxicology field like Dr. David Minkoff…

Amazing how far Scientology has managed to insinuate itself into DAN! isn’t it? But is that the end of it? Not by a long chalk.

Scientologist husband and wife team Jean Ross and karl Loren are actively marketing Chelation to autism customers

Another scientologist recently made national television in the US.

In 2002, a schizophrenic named Jeremy Perkins visited a Scientologist doctor called Conrad Maulfair at the behest of his Scientologist mother. Maulfair told Jeremy’s mother that it wasn’t Schizophrenia but in fact high levels of arsenic and metals that were causing Jeremy’s issues. Maulfair _had_ to say this as he cannot, by virtue of his belief in Scientology, accept or diagnose a psychiatric reason to explain Jeremy. He recommended chelation. Jeremy’s mum decided on her own treatment – also not psychiatry – and then in 2003, in the grip of schizophrenia, Jeremy stabs his Scientologist mother to death.

This scientologist, Dr Conrad Maulfair, is a DAN! Doctor. His failure to correctly diagnose has now led to a death.

And here’s Hubbard and Scientology worshipper Dr Arturo M Volpe expounding the benefits of treating autistic children with Methyl B12 and FIRS (far infrared saunas) – he even quotes DAN! Doctor, Sidney Baker.

And then there’s Boyd Haley. Haley was amongst a gaggle of Scientologists making sworn depositions for an amalgam/mercury case in 2002. They lost of course but amongst the Scientologists testifying were: Raymond G. Behm and our old friend David Minkoff. Once again, Boyd Haley demonstrates the calibre of his rationality in the company he keeps and the ‘science’ they present.

There’s also significant Scientology representation amongst the law firms involved the autism/thiomersal litigation. For example, in June 2001 legal firm Baum Hedlund announced a class action lawsuit against thiomersal containing vaccine manufacturers as part of the now defunct Mercury Vaccine Alliance.

Paul Hedlund is described as;

has also been in business with several other Scientologist lawyers, including fellow Slatkin investor George “Skip” Murgatroyd. He and Michael Baum were also both investors with Scientologist ponzi artist Reed Slatkin.

And Michael Baum is described as;

….a former staffer with the Church of Scientology’s Guardian Office (the Church’s secret service operation that preceded the Office of Special Affairs) and is an Unindicted Co-conspirator for his work on Operation Snow White, the domestic espionage case which sent eleven Scientologists to prison, including L Ron Hubbard’s wife.

Its clear to see that Scientology has its claws well into the mercury/thiomersal/chelation/autism community. What that community decides to do about that is a matter for their conscience.

Scientology and Recovery

Last year, Generation Rescue launched a full page advert thanking scientists for their work in establishing a thiomersal/autism connection. Embarrassingly, most of the quoted scientists co-signed a letter stating that their work had essentially been misrepresented.

The background of the advert used the image of a young boy called Baxter Berle who the advert stated was recovered from autism. KNBC News in the US presented a report which contained the following:

So, the school district first diagnosed Baxter and then later removed his diagnosis. What school did Baxter Berle attend at that time? Baxter Berle attended a school called ‘The Learning Castle’ which is alleged to be an elementary ‘feeder’ school for the Renaissance Academy with which it shares a campus (there seem to be about seven separate units on campus all feeding the Renaissance Academy). Here’s a little bit of information about the Director of the Renaissance Academy, Ann Hazen;

Renaissance Academy is truly bringing education back to life through the use of a full academic program, athletics, the Arts, a warm and caring staff coupled with the brilliant study and educational philosophies of humanitarian L. Ron Hubbard.

Yup, they’re Scientologists too. Here’s Ms Hazen’s personal site and here’s a Scientology official website featuring Ms Hazen.

The Moonies And Scientologists – In It Together?

There seem to be disturbing signs of a pact between the Moonies and Scientologists to further their agendas jointly. bear in mind they seem to have mutual interests so it would make sense.

The Council for National Policy was a group started in 1981 by a man called Tim Lahaye. It brought together powerful members of both the Moonie and Scientology groups. From the link;

Beverly LaHaye, as was previously noted, is the wife of Tim LaHaye. She also was and still may be part of the CNP, and also founder of Concerned Women for America. She joined forces with Citizens Council on Human Rights, a group affiliated with Scientology, and Gary Bauer’s Family Research Council, which has benefited as well from Rev. Moon organizations and money. This all under the umbrella of social change and “Christian family values” in America. Mrs. LaHaye and Bauer appeared and spoke together in a 1995 rally against psychiatric practices on children. The question is, regardless of a good cause, is it necessary for these evangelical leaders to join forces with Moon, Scientology and the Intelligence community? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to recognize that many groups use charitable giving/participation, patriotic associations and demonstrations of community or national good will to obfuscate their true objectives and agenda, or to conceal and deflect attention from their wrong-doing……LaHayes group, the Council for National Policy, is just one example of evangelical organizations being filled with Intelligence officers, Moon representatives and Scientology members.

Another ‘front’ group was called ‘Americans Preserving Religious Liberty’ (APRL) which was established in 1982. Renowned sociologist Dr Anson Shupe Jr;

….was cognizant of APRL’s ties with Scientology, stating in a 1984 publication that “[b]oth Scientology and the Unification Church were extremely active” in the organization…

So we can see that Scientologists and Moonies have acted together in the past. Whether they are again or not is not a settled question but I hope someone with more resources than me can follow these things up. Autism shouldn’t be associated with cults.

Selling autism

4 Nov

It’s no secret that the Pat Sullivan’s are probably not career rocket scientists – they sell dietary supplements among other things on the internet. They probably lack understanding of even some very basic aspects of autism in my opinion but they seem to have remained benign and polite for the most part. No matter – I’m not a career rocket scientist either. I’d also like to state that I like both Pats. They always make an effort to go to the source which I find admirable.

Which is why I was disappointed by a couple of recent posts on the Sullivan blog.

Pat Jr. posting recently took issue with a post from Autism Diva which described a mercury mum as saying:

Dr Quig [Vice President, Scientific Support for Doctor’s Data Inc. lab] who sees zillion Doctors Data reports had some interesting comments: like TD-DMPS is not transdermal because it doesn’t trans the dermal! Suppositories and IV are generally more effective. He mentioned that none of these really penetrate the blood brain barrier.

Pat got in touch with Buttar to ask him about this. Apparently Buttar was pissed off in the extreme about it. Then Pat found out Buttar spoke to Doctors Data who profusely apologised and explained that:

Dr. Quig was merely saying that TD-DMPS is not good for challenge testing, something that Dr. Buttar fully agrees with. TD-DMPS is a therapeutic chelator that has the advantage of being able to remove metals slowly. But it’s the least effective for challenge tests

Uh – so? Quite aside from the point that the whole issue of challenge testing is fraught with bullshit, Quig never referred to how good or speedy a chelator TD-DMPS was, he said it didn’t work at all. Two very different things.

I’ve recently been having an email exchange with someone who was at one time very close to Dr Buttar’s practice. This person had some very interesting things to tell me about the way Buttar allegedly does business. Maybe Pat or Kevin Champagne could ask Dr Buttar personally just how much his clinic pays for the initial DNA testing he insists all new patients undergo? My source claims that he charges between $200 – _$900_ for these tests. My source further claims that these test kits are provided to Buttar’s clinic _free of charge_ from the test labs. If that’s true, then that’s a hell of a markup. Not illegal by any means but certainly very, very questionable ethical behaviour.

I was then saddened and disappointed to see the Sullivan’s start to market actively to their site visitors:

Now, I have been very, VERY careful not to ever advertise Jigsaw products to the autism community because I felt like it would give my opponents the ability to marginalize my arguments.

Possibly, but much as I like them, I’ve never found the Sullivan’s arguments to be critically thought through or scientifically supported. Possibly in an entry I’ve not read there is something.

Following that, is a paragraph about how a blogger who went to an autism conference listed a bunch of dietary supplements that, by a remarkable coincidence the Sullivan’s also just happen to sell – and are helpfully more than happy to list with clickable links to information and direct purchasing options.

Pat Jr. continues:

“So I guess this breaks my silence on marketing to the autistic community. Sorry.”

That made me a little cross. To the “autistic community”? It’s obvious that at least one Sullivan is maybe either a careless writer or apparently doesn’t understand the difference between “the autistic community” (that would be made up of autistic people), and “the autism community” (the larger community that includes parents of autistic children with money to spend or legally able to incur debt).

Sorry? What no, “we want to earn your business,” or “your satisfaction is our goal.”? All they can offer is a, “You’re a target, sorry”? Of course their motives are irrelevant. They are in business to make money. They’ll probably treat their “marketing targets” according to a business plan. In reality, their intentions say absolutely nothing about whether or not the vitamins, herbs, and lab tests they apparently re-sell do anything (or nothing) for for autism, the autistic community, or the autism community.

In fact, the reason we got involved in the autism debate to begin with was because of the near perfect parallel Pat experienced. It’s also the reason we started the Jigsaw Health Foundation with the sole purpose of providing financial assistance for mercury amalgam removal.

Is Jigsaw health going to contribute to the “autistic community” in some real way? There are
probably schools in your country that could use funding assistance and many families who need in-home education services or other assistance. There are probably autistic adults who need living or employment support services. There might even be valuable autism reasearch somewhere over there. Wouldn’t that contribution be more valid than removing peoples fillings?

As I say, I like the Sullivan’s (even though it states in my ‘evil neurodiverse’ contract I shouldn’t) but I found this glib explanation of Buttar’s skin cream and the follow up targeted sales-speak a little much.

Too far – attacks on autistic people

30 Oct

The level of debate continues to sink from the mercury militia. In various places over the web this past week or so, parents who believe vaccines caused their kids autism sunk about as low as you can get. They attacked autistic people – the same ‘sort’ of person their child is. And why? Because they don’t agree with what either they are saying or their parents or saying.

AutismWeb Forums

Over on Autism Web forums, Amanda was vitriolically attacked by two of the less stable members – sashasmom and respect (hilariously ironic username). She was attacked because she essentially suggested that death-threatening angry responses utilised by parents are not a good way to progress. This prompted sashasmom to question her autism and deride her sexuality to the point where the moderator edited part of sashasmom’s post.

It led ‘respect’ to label her input as ‘drivel’.

The hysteria on display here is incredible. If someone says something you disagree with its entirely possible to disagree with the idea and remain respectful. The notion that these two posters (both not autistic) know more about the experience of autism than Amanda as they have implied throughout her tenure on AutismWeb forums is both pathetic and laughable. Their voices are simply echo’s of ex-AutismWeb member Srinath, who called another autistic member a retard.

I personally find it deeply worrying that these people consider themselves part of any autism community.

But of course, however low one person can stoop, we all know another man from New Hampshire who can stoop lower.

John Best at AWARES

John has developed what seems to be an unhealthy interest in my daughter. I find it incredibly disturbing. More so than I can possibly convey in writing. I don’t give a stuff if he or his crowd insult me personally, I’m a big boy – but time after time he has seen fit to abuse my daughter. Who can forget his charming comparison of my daughter to a trained monkey:

My wife bought too many bananas so I’ll send some for your daughter

which came about as a result of me detailing her progress (the crime being of course that she’s progressing without chelation/ALA/megadose vitamins or HBOT).

Well now he’s stooped even lower. This years AWARES conference is well under way. John has apparently changed his stance from last year where he stated that AWARES was a made up conference solely to trap him (John has a little problem with ego and reality) and decided to attend again this year.

This time though he joined up with the username ‘Megan Leitch’ and made numerous posts abusing autistic members of the conference and pushing chelation as the only cure. When I was made aware of this, I contacted the conference administrator and after satisfying himself that what I was saying was true, he deleted all posts from that user and deleted the account.

What sort of utter coward _assumes the identity_ of a six year old autistic girl? I am in two minds at whether to follow up on this legally. I’m not sure what constitutes identity theft in a legal sense but I intend to find out. But of course this goes far beyond identify theft. To anyone with an ounce of morality, posting in the name of a child to further your own agenda is so tasteless that I don’t think there are adjectives to describe this particular act. Assuming the identity of an autistic child because you don’t like the child’s father or what he has to say is…..disturbing….

John has demonstrated moral ambivalence of many occasions, including telephone threats to women:

Lisa; Should I have Tim call you again to teach you some basics about autism that you’re incapable of understanding?

And a general dislike of women, whom he considers less intelligent than men:

Women will never be more intelligent than men although they may be smarter than men who won’t stand up for themselves.

Although it seems his wife came close to acting intelligently until John brow-beat her into submission:

I also have a wife who took two years of prodding before I could begin chelation. I finally started in May. We were also close to divorce…

And John’s approach to parenting his kids, seems to reflect his moral ambivalence to other children:

50mg 0f seroquel has worked for my son since age 5. It takes a while to knock him out but he is always tough to wake up after 8 or 9 hours of sleep. We use benadryl or waldryl(half the cost) once in a while to help knock him out sooner. We have now had two years of sleeping every night after three years of virtually no sleep. Good Luck

Seroquel is an antipsychotic neurole[ptic similar to Risperdal that:

..is indicated for the treatment of acute manic episodes associated with bipolar I disorder and the treatment of schizophrenia.

On Josephs blog post I linked to above, John got into a protracted debate with Jannalou who takes medication for ADD and told her that the medication was causing suicidal thoughts and constipation. Apparently, John has never read the fact sheet on Seroquel which states that it can cause suicidal feelings and constipation. It further states:

The safety and effectiveness of SEROQUEL in pediatric patients have not been established.

No matter how I feel about John, I would _never, ever_ stoop to assuming the identity of his son or making comparisons between his children and animals.

I see John is trying to ‘recruit’ Maria Lujan on her new blog – this is the same person of whom he once said:

I don’t believe Maria Lujan is real, nor do I beleive Not Mercury is real. I think they are just identities that your side conjured up

(Source above).

Thankfully, Maria is far too intelligent to be taken in by a low brow thug like John Best. John however, is not intelligent enough to remember the fact that he abused someone before trying to wheedle his way into their life.

There is something very, very wrong with a person who would assume the identity of a six year old girl. I can’t imagine anyone other than John’s most recent crop of neophytes thinking otherwise. In fact, I don’t event think all of them would like it.

John likes to call people who don’t chelate child abusers. I wouldn’t call John a child abuser but I’ll leave you to formulate your own descriptions of a man who feels no qualms at abusing the identities of children.

TV might cause autism?

24 Oct

The blogosphere and certain Yahoo groups are _outraged_ by the idea that a study from Cornell University alleges that TV might have a role to play in autism.

The idea is pretty stupid. Basically, the Cornell guys are saying that because there’s autism in places where there’s lots of rainfall and because when its raining kids watch TV that autism has a link to TV. In fact, that piece of thinking goes beyond ‘pretty stupid’ and inhabits the landscape of ‘hilariously inept’. To give them their due they stop short of claiming a causative connection but they claim its a major piece of the puzzle.

We are not saying we have found the cause of autism, we’re saying we have found a critical piece of evidence

Guys – you _so_ haven’t.

Anyway, the merits of this study aren’t the focus of this post (hilarious as the study is, I couldn’t do better than Joseph’s takedown ). What’s interested me over the last few days are the outraged splutterings coming from a certain section of the autism community.

As they have dumbed down this society over the past generation and people took the history of science courses as opposed to pharmacology/pharmacology, all sorts of insane theories and mischief can emanate from a population of social/mental dingbats whose primary source of production is television shows as opposed to hard goods.

H Coleman, Evidence of Harm Yahoo Group.

First and foremost this is a perfect example of what happens when economists that know nothing of a medical condition try to find some statistical relationship between their beloved data and a condition.

The authors of this study made no effort to explain how TV watching could trigger chronic intestinal inflammation, toxic levels of heavy metals, inability to sleep, hard and bloated abdomens, food allergies or intolerances, and much more.

Kendra Pettengill, EoH Yahoo regular

I could go on but I think you get the idea. In a nutshell, the mercury militia are _not happy_ that TV has been linked to autism. Most of them are not happy because the study is totally ridiculous. On that I agree with them. Some of them are unhappy because they think its a study trying to put the blame back on parents in a bettlehiem-esqe manner. I think thats an overreaction but I can see what they’re saying.

However, a lot are unhappy because it refuses to recognise mercury as being ‘in the mix’. Thats as hilarious, predictable and sad as the study in question.

But I’m _still_ not making my point. My point is this. OK, this TV study is junk but here’s a question for you my mercury obsessed cherubs – what scientific merit does your vaccine/thiomersal/MMR theory have that elevates it above this TV study? I’m going to go right ahead and assert that the vaccine theory has no more causative evidence behind it than this joke of a study.

Both hypothesis have, at their core, an implausible correlation with a couple of self-congratulatory scientists dabbling with numbers that they want to twist to fit their theories. And that’s it. _No_ clinical evidence, no decent epidemiological evidence and a mainstream science community sniggering openly. What this TV theory needs is a bunch of credulous people to form pretentious sounding groups – SAFE TVINDS maybe or Notelly.org, then they can part-fund some crappy science to support the original crappy science, write books, organise marches on Hollywood instead of the CDC, get harvested by a whole new crop of quacks etc etc.

In all seriousness: mercury boys and girls – how you see the TV theory (a mixture of borderline tolerable amusement and offence to science) is exactly how the rest of the world see’s you.

Mark Geier, David Geier and the VSD

10 Oct

Introduction

One of the many anecdotal lynch pins of the Mercury Militia is the fabled story of what happened when the Geier’s attempted to study the VSD database.

Please bear in mind that to the Militia this story carries a *lot* of weight. It is one of the few supporting crutches left under the hypothesis that since thiomersal was removed from vaccines autism cases have gone down. Educational data has failed them. CDDS data has failed them. The Geier’s paper using VAERS (a non starter if they’d only thought about it) was so bad it couldn’t be published in a proper science journal and so this VSD story is all that’s left.

This story is enshrined in the hallowed pages of Evidence of Harm although the source of the story is unclear. Here’s the Militia version.

What The Geier’s Said

The VSD is the Vaccine Safety Database. This database carries raw data related to vaccine safety. The Geier’s were allowed access to this data, together with their computer expert Vale Kernik who would run the statistical programming tool in the SAS language that the CDC’s VSD uses. SAS is a widely used solution for statistical analysis.

The VSD’s Wikipedia page says that:

Only two outside researchers, Mark Geier and David Geier, have thus far gained access to the raw data. They faced formidable obstacles before being allowed into the CDC computer center, and then resistance from staff and software malfunctions once inside. Nevertheless, they reportedly found highly elevated risks for autism among children in the highest mercury exposure group. The Geiers study on the VSD, “A two-phased population epidemiological study of the safety of thimerosal-containing vaccines: a follow-up analysis” was published in the Medical Science Monitor in 2004 volume 11(4):CR160-CR170.

NB: This page has been edited by a member of the Geier household – against Wikipedia recommendations.

Evidence of Harm (the Kirby book) deals with the same event:

In late July the CDC informed the Geiers that the requested data set had been assembled. After paying a processing fee of $3,200, the Geiers were given two dates in August to come and run their studies. But there was another entirely unexpected wrinkle. Just two days before their appointment, a CDC technician called to make sure they were fluent in the programming language SAS, which is used in the VSD database. The Geiers had never heard of it before. “You must not be epidemiologists,” the technician said, “They all speak SAS.” If that were true it was news to the Geiers……Reluctantly they cancelled the appointment. It took two weeks to find someone who could run SAS…..They got new dates in October 2003… the dad, Vale Krenik, flew in from Texas. The were met by a woman who introduced herself and said she would be their “monitor

Evidence of Harm, p280 – 282.

And then things got very surreal. Their ‘expert’ programmer (who apparently taught himself SAS in two weeks) was stymied by the most dreaded sights for programmers – a command line interface.

How on earth can this be happening?” Mark muttered shaking his head, “Once again they got us.” Silence filled the room. There would be no number crunching today. The men stared at the screen.

Sorry. I’m being facetious. Any ‘expert’ who can’t work in a command line at even a very basic level is _not_ an expert.

The weirdness continued when the CDC monitor who was due to accompany the fearless trio for the duration of their stay popped her head out the door, looked both ways, came back into the room and:

She sat down and took a deep breath. “Don’t tell anyone this,” she said in a low voice, “But I can help you.”….I’m telling you, they know,” she said conspiratorially. “There’s a big problem”…..”The autism numbers are going down,” she said, “We are watching them drop.”

This mystery CDC monitor became known as ‘Mrs Toast’. Over on the EoH Yahoo Group, it was discussed why:

There is a woman who I refer to as Mrs. Toast. She is a CDC staffer who was responsible for monitoring the Geiers when they were instructed to visit the Vaccine Safety Datalink by Congress. When she saw the Geiers datasets, she walked out into the hallway, looked both ways, and came back into the room shutting the door behind her.

The Geiers thought they had epi-evidence. Mrs. Toast told them to look at hers. She told them she was responsible for running weekly autism datasets. She was instructed to run datasets on HMO vaccination adverse outcomes to see what effect removing thimerosal from vaccines was having on the epidemic. She had an affected child and made sure that the Geiers understood that the rates were dropping each and every week.

Author David Kirby had an interview set up, flew down to Atlanta, was in a car on the way to CDC to talk to her, but CDC had found out and they were threatening for end her career if she spoke to him.

When Congressman Dave Weldon found out about her not willing to blow the whistle on CDC’s cover-up he said, “THIS WOMAN IS TOAST!” Which is were I gave her the formal name of Mrs. Toast.

Robert Bloch, EoH Yahoo Group

Hilarious right? Mrs Toast.

And so, off trudge the Geier’s with their expert (the one unable to operate DOS). _Imagine_ their surprise when they get a letter from the CDC that said:

1) The Geier’s had violated the terms of their IRB
2) They asked how to merge datasets in a contradiction of the agreed terms of use of the data
3) They were told they couldn’t and yet they tried to anyway
4) If they had managed to merge the datasets they would have increased the risk of a breach of confidentiality.
5) The research team had attempted to rename data files to make them look like part of the SAS program (by changing the file extension to ‘.sas’)

As a result of this, the Geier’s IRB (Kasier) suspended them from undertaking any more data collection at the VSD.

The Geier’s responded by hotly denying these allegations. They first state that they didn’t violate the protocol but as Kathleen says in her exhaustive look at their reply:

The Geiers here claim to have followed the design of their research protocol, yet simultaneously acknowledge that they were attempting to conduct analyses of information not encompassed by it.

More amusingly, on page two of their reply the Geier’s state:

It is impossible for the datasets given to us by CDC to be merged

And then on page three of the same letter state:

What we were attempting to accomplish was to merge the datasets given to us by CDC to build a record…

And so the situation is now that the Geier’s pet ‘expert’ couldn’t figure out SAS, they had no meaningful results and what they did have was gained under extreme deception to the point their IRB approval was suspended.

And so, they decided to go ahead and publish anyway (well, you would, wouldn’t you?) and thus A two-phased population epidemiological study of the safety of thimerosal-containing vaccines: a follow-up analysis was born in 2005 (hereafter referred to as G05).

Geier, Geier, pants on fire?

G05 made reference to the VSD data that the Geier’s couldn’t collect/collected part of/pick your belief. In this respect it was similar to a paper written by ex-CDC staff member Dr. Thomas Verstraeten which _also_ used VSD data to look at thiomersal and autism in 2000. This paper (hereafter referred to as V00) found a statistically significant correlation between thiomersal and developmental disorders.

Oh no!!!! Doesn’t this back up the Geier’s et al?

Well, it _might_ except that as Verstraeten himself states in a letter to Paediatrics:

The CDC screening study of thimerosal-containing vaccines was perceived at first as a positive study that found an association between thimerosal and some neurodevelopmental outcomes. This was the perception both independent scientists and antivaccine lobbyists had at the conclusion of the first phase of the study. It was foreseen from the very start that any positive outcome would lead to a second phase. The validity of the first-phase results needed urgent validation in view of the large potential public health impact. Did the CDC purposefully select a second phase that would contradict the first phase? Certainly not. The push to urgently perform the second phase at health maintenance organization C came entirely from myself, because I felt that *the first-phase results were too prone to potential biases* to be the basis for important public health decisions.

Because *the findings of the first phase were not replicated in the second phase*, the perception of the study changed from a positive to a neutral study. Surprisingly, however, the study is being interpreted now as negative by many, including the antivaccine lobbyists.

So, in short, the first phase of the study using a small sample size indicated there might be an issue. When the second phase was undertaken with a larger sample size, the issue disappeared. Not uncommon in the slightest. Its standard practice to conduct a small, pilot study to see if there’s any issue to study further before committing large amounts of public money to a full scale study.

But I digress – back to the Geier’s.

They knew about the V00 paper – of course they did, it would be hard not to – and as they wrote G05 then they looked at it again. Remember that the Geier’s had struggled at the CDC VSD headquarters.

As Kathleen once again unearthed, the Geier’s – with a lack of VSD data at their disposal wrote their paper. It had some odd elements to it. Here’s a table of stats from the V00 pilot study:

And here’s a table of stats from G05:

Take a look at the numbers. Aside from one category they’re identical. Further the V00 paper states:

The final number of children thus included in our cohort was 109,993.

And G05 states:

The final number of children thus included in the cohort examined was 109,993

Woah! Spooky! By some miraculous, completely bizarre accidental coincidence, the Geier’s – who had little to no data from their visit to the VSD – have the _exact same cohort numbers and divisional figures_ as a paper written 5 years earlier resulting from a pilot study that showed a now debunked association!! What are the odds of _that_ ? I wish I knew a betting man who could tell me!

And maybe my betting amigo could tell me the odds of those same two papers having over ten more virtually identical passages and/or tables of figures? Maybe the Geier’s should drop the litigation gigs and move to Vegas and live on the strip.

A Different Interpretation

So here’s what _I_ think happened. Just conjecture but persuasive I think.

First of all, this odd SAS programming language. The CDC think its common amongst stat-fans. The Geier’s say its really really rare. Google says there are over four and a half million web related resources for SAS programming. That doesn’t sound pretty rare to me.

A leading SAS expert says:

Millions of people around the world in business, science, government, and education use SAS software to work with data. SAS software runs on many operating systems, including Microsoft Windows, UNIX, OS/2, Mac, MVS, and VMS. Most features of SAS software operate the same way in these different operating systems.

Still not sounding rare. In fact its one of the few apps that runs on Win, Mac and Unix. Not a good indicator of rarity.

And as for how quickly their ‘expert’ was defeated by SAS, SAS author Rick Astor states:

Fortunately, SAS programming is not that hard to learn.

Unless of course you’re a computer expert terrified of command lines. Vale Krenik is quoted and described on this page. His job (and former jobs) is described as:

Business Manager, Strategic Supplier Manager, Global Telecom Manager

It’s true that one of these roles has a techy requirement but absolutely _none_ can be swapped with the title ‘programmer’ or ‘expert’.

I think that the Geier’s needed someone who knew computers and settled on Krenik. When it came to it, Krenik didn’t know what the hell to do with SAS. If you’re reading this Mr Krenik, the three lines of code you need to merge datasets in SAS are available. I think they panicked and tried to grab as much data as they could in a brute force attack and then change the data files appearance to try and make them look like SAS files by renaming them with a ‘.sas’ extension.

I further think that the whole Mrs Toast episode is entirely fictitious. It even reads like a bad John Grisham novel. Bloch states that Kirby had an interview set up with the nameless Mrs Toast and that she cancelled at the last minute. Frankly, I don’t believe a word of it. I wonder who set up and then cancelled this meeting? One of the Geier’s by any chance? Does anybody know?

And then there’s the magically duplicated data. The Geier’s realised their VSD data landgrab had failed utterly and so they copied the data (and hence conclusions) from the V00 paper.

I don’t believe the Geier’s have ever seen VSD data. I don’t believe ‘Mrs Toast’ exists.

Our thanks and appreciation should go to Kathleen for the painstaking research she has assembled on the Geier’s. I know mine do.

Originally posted at Left Brain/Right Brain.

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