Its The Mercury, Stupid! No Wait!

9 Aug

I predicted not long ago that we’d shortly begin to witness a move away from thiomersal/mercury language from the geniuses in the mercury militia due the ongoing science refuting the hypothesis and the total rejection of the accumulated body of science so far built to support the hypothesis.

Every quarter, as long term members of this debacle will know, California DDS release a set of figures that are used to indicate how many autistic people are receiving services in that State. These numbers have been hailed at various times and by various people from the mercury militia as ‘the gold standard’ or ‘incontravertible proof’ that thiomersal causes autism as the numbers seemed to rise in the latter part of the nineties when thiomersal was around and then drop when it was removed. In actual fact, this belief came about due to a total misunderstanding of the numbers. The numbers have never dropped. All that happened at some points was that the _rate of increase_ either dipped or rose. Especially in the core cohort of 3 – 5 year olds.

For more on this see Joseph’s excellent summation.

In short, CDDS numbers continue to rise in the age group that would show a dramatic drop if thiomersal was the culprit.

The last two quarters have seen ‘rises’ in the rate of increase and where once there was excited bandying about of this ‘proof’ we now have the embarrased silence of no dogs barking.

And yet….deep in the recesses of Anti-Vaccine Central aka The Evidence of Harm Yahoo Group….someone had the bad taste to mention this recently. The response was swift, predictable and as stupid as a celebrity reality TV contestant.

Yes, and I do believe that we need to look at ALL environmental factors, and not just mercury, including other vaccine components, the antigens themselves, the cross-reactivity of various vaccines, the timing of vaccine administration, environmental sources of mercury, the overuse of antibiotics, pesticides, pitocin, ultrasound (I have noticed some listmates stating that their NT kids had just as much ultrasound exposure as their ASD child and they’re fine — careful, that’s what the parents of NT kids say about vaccines!) and electromagnetic radiation.

You factor in all of the new vaccine recommendations over the last four years and there are plenty of things that could muddy the waters here. Not to mention live attenuated virus vaccines,

But…but…didn’t these people get the message from Rick Rollens that:

Decline [in CDDS data] coincides with the phasing out of mercury from childhood vaccines.

Yes I know there wasn’t really a decline but they believed it. They touted it as fact.

How about David Kirby’s ‘Gold Standard‘>

Stay tuned. If the numbers in California and elsewhere continue to drop – and that still is a big if — the implication of thimerosal in the autism epidemic will be practically undeniable.

So, now that we know that _they never dropped_ is the opposite ‘practically undeniable’?

Let’s not forget what David Kirby told Citizen Cain:

if the total number of 3-5 year olds in the California DDS system has not declined by 2007, that would deal a severe blow to the autism-thimerosal hypothesis

What shape will that ‘severe blow’ take do you think? Will it be a full and frank admission from Mr Kirby that he maybe should’ve asked around outside of the circle of geniuses headed by Rollens regarding prevalence in CDDS data? That maybe he’s jumped the gun quite substantially? Will we see retractions from Brad Handley and Generation Rescue who might have to redefine their incredibly simplistic, premature and wilfully misleading categorisation of autism? Will we get some injection related sense out of more than a few people? Will Moms Against Mercury rename themselves? How about SafeMinds?

What does Lenny Schafer think? In recent years, the SAR has become little more than an anti-thiomersal polemic. What does he say about all this as the Moderator of the EoH group?

The fact is that if the problem is mercury and mercury has been greatly reduced in vaccines, we should see numbers either dropping, or the rate of increase dropping. Maybe the later is true, I can’t tell from this one chart alone. These reports have always come with caveats about how they are not properly controlled for a variety of factors that could affect the actuals, like the CDC recommendations for mercury flu shots or their aggressive push for early (and more) diagnosis. We (not just Christine) can’t one day point to these numbers and say: “see, they support the mercury hypothesis” when it suit us, and then later say “you really can’t trust these numbers” when they don’t.

At least a nod towards honesty. But he needs to understand why Kirby is correct to say that it is numbers dropping that’s important not changes in the rate of increase.

Slowly but surely these people are moving towards a position of wholesale anti-vaccination. Of course, its been there all along, but as the veneer of credibility the thiomersal hypothesis had when we lacked data is stripped away so is the thin veneer that reveals the depths of their ignorance.

When they finally abandon thiomersal, never forget their adamancy that it was thiomersal. Never forget that their ‘common sense’ trumped their ability to see what was under their noses. Thiomersal is a neuropoison QED, thiomersal causes autism. That’s the sort of logic that resulted in their recent spectacular own goal of the US Senate refusing point blank to put vaccine specific language in the recent Combating Autism Act. Wake up geniuses: They don’t trust you because you’re zealots. Your future is plain to see for them and me. Thiomersal to aluminium, aluminium to live virus, live virus to some other vaccine related ingredient. That’s why the ASA, CAN, Autism Speaks etc were happy to ditch the vaccine language. They want to distance themselves from you. Is it any wonder?

Welcome to EoH visitors! I see you have an amusing long thread where you all talk about how unbothered you are about me – with *lots* of contributions from various familiar faces. I would like to correct one small point you seem to have picked up: There is only one side of this that believe that the Illuminati is involved or even actually exist: That is your side. As represented by John Scudamore (owner of and Dr David Ayoub of FAIR Autism Media. Hope thats clear enough for you to grasp :o)

13 Responses to “Its The Mercury, Stupid! No Wait!”

  1. Nathzn August 9, 2006 at 13:30 #

    Good post Kev,

    It looks like the end of an Era.

    Great News, this gives a few weeks/months until orgs full take on board the next wave of Bullshit (oh I mean ‘valid’ science).

    Though as you say they are already moving away from Thiomersal

    Ah well at least we can wave this in their collective faces.

  2. Bartholomew Cubbins August 9, 2006 at 14:38 #

    Heh. Love the post.

    Since I usually daydream while I read, I was imagining you doing an “Evil Kirk / SNL” skit.

    I also loved the knife-twisting Common Sense reference.
    Maybe she can take her act to Letterman.

  3. anonimouse August 9, 2006 at 14:39 #

    The simple fact that these activist groups never endorsed vaccination (often playing the “informed choice” anti-vaccine card) should’ve told you all you needed to know.

    It took me about five seconds to figure out that Generation Rescue is not an “anti-mercury” group but an “anti-vaccine” group. Of course, J.B. will beg to differ, but I have seen nothing that makes me think Handley believes in universal vaccination.

    And as an aside – if it “was the mercury”, you’d think there would be some pretty good clinical research out there right now to substantiate that. Considering that the CDC-AAP joint statement was made in 1999 (but Cave and Holmes were treating autistics for “mercury toxicity” several years before that) it seems that 7+ years is a long time to be literally nowhere in terms of proof that mercury plays a role in autism.

  4. Joseph August 9, 2006 at 16:11 #

    Good recap. This hype-othesis is dead and burried; as the notion of an ‘epidemic’ soon will be hopefully.

  5. Joseph August 9, 2006 at 16:17 #

    Oh, and thanks for the link. I have another post where I argue in depth about all the problems with various interpretations of the CDDS data.

  6. Joseph August 9, 2006 at 19:53 #

    There’s still some discussion going on in EOHarm about the issue. For example, Paul writes:

    These things are true, aren’t they?

    No, unfortunately no.

    1) There is an autism epidemic, in the US as in the UK, and something caused it. The numbers started going up very sharply over a short period, and that period was the end of the 80’s and the beginning of the 90’s. 1988-90? This sort of implies one cause, or causes closely linked by a common factor.

    No, there isn’t. There’s an increase in the number of diagnosed cases. What happened at the beginning of the 1990s is a broadening of the concept of autism.

    2) Mercury-free vaccines became available in the US, and in the right timeframe, the number of new cases of autism went down, for several quarters in a row.

    The number of new cases never went down (except perhaps for Q3 2003). Caseload growth went down for a few quarters, then back up. There’s no clear pattern, but caseload growth should be expected to go down eventually.

    3) Mercury-containing flu vaccines came into use in the US, and became ‘recommended’ – which really means compulsory, right? And now, as I can recall posters on this saying it would, the number of new cases of autism has started going up again, in the right timeframe.

    No, recommended is not compulsory.

    4) The amount of mercury needed to make a tiny baby autistic is probably very small, isn’t it? We know how much mercury babies were and are injected with, and how much it exceeds even the published safe levels for adults. Even if a baby or its mother is being injected with mercury only from flu vaccines, that’s easily enough. Dan Olmsted pointed out that adjusted for weight, the amount of mercury an American child gets now from flu vaccines isn’t much less than it was from the other vaccines, and that was far too much.

    If that were the case, autism prevalence in young children should’ve been high in the 1970s and 80s, when the thimerosal dose per child was higher than it is now.

    5) The autism epidemic in the UK appears related to a relatively small change in the vaccination schedule: the mercury-containing DTaP was moved forward from 3 months, 5 months and 10 months, to 2 months, 3 months and 4 months. Short time? Big differences in body weight and immune system efficiency. 75mcg of mercury. Less than in the US vaccination schedule. Enough though. Also the MMR came in 1988; over the 80’s the number of vaccinations a child could be given before age 2 went from 8 to 22. Enough?

    I don’t think it appears to be related to any such thing.

  7. anonimouse August 9, 2006 at 23:05 #

    These are really funny:

    There is an autism epidemic, in the US as in the UK, and something caused it. The numbers started going up very sharply over a short period, and that period was the end of the 80’s and the beginning of the 90’s. 1988-90? This sort of implies one cause, or causes closely linked by a common factor.

    Of course, as Joseph states, Paul conveniently forgets the new DSM or the changes in law (in the U.S.) which made services for autistics more readily available, thus enticing doctors to give the diagnosis.

    3) Mercury-containing flu vaccines came into use in the US, and became ‘recommended’ – which really means compulsory, right? And now, as I can recall posters on this saying it would, the number of new cases of autism has started going up again, in the right timeframe.

    If by “compulsory” he means that virtually no pregnant women and roughly half of infants under two get the flu vaccine (and I’d surmise a big chunk of them get thimerosal-free vaccine through government programs) then he would be right.

  8. Joseph August 9, 2006 at 23:38 #

    And how about this one from Christine:

    You know, there is never going to be definitive proof of anything. Numbers
    are Numbers and there are so many varitables. Maybe a new dx place opened
    up, maybe the Autism Speaks ads are encouraging parents to get their kids
    checked out, maybe there are more kids in CA in general.

    Don’t these numbers need to be compared to the total population? Are they?
    If 10,000 new kids moved to CA in that quarter- and the numbers went up-
    that doesn’t neccessary mean the rates are going up.

    I just feel like I don’t trust ANY numbers anymore. 😦

  9. andrea August 10, 2006 at 01:37 #

    psst, you need an apostrophe in the title: It’s

  10. `.,.' August 10, 2006 at 04:57 #

    There was some sort of conversation on EoHarm about how Mark Blaxill might be a bad guy because the company he works for is in the pay of PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES. Someone came back and doubted that. But if you go on Sallie Bernard’s advertising research company’s website you can see that Sallie has been or is in the employ of Merck (that’s a PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY). So what about Lyn Redwood? and Tommy? This all shows you how deep the tentacles of the Illuminati go. If I were one of the parents, and maybe I am, I’d be asking to see Lenny’s tax returns to see if he’s getting money from GSK. I want to know who’s paying David Kirby’s bills.

  11. `.,.' August 10, 2006 at 05:15 #

    Teresa Conrick
    Elmwood Park
    Board member
    _A_dvocates for _C_hildren’s _H_ealth
    _I_mpaired by _M_ercury _P_oisoning

    I didn’t know that Teresa Conrick was a board member of _A CHIMP_. I think that’s not a real organization. See how the illuminati try to make monkeys out of the thimerosal causation thing? They have David Ayoub writing a letter to a little newspaper along with Erik Nanstiel and Karen McDonough who works with ACHAMP whining about people trying to cut back on mercury emissions. This looks like an illuminati ploy to maintain air pollution to me.

  12. clone3g August 10, 2006 at 17:24 #

    I didn’t know that Teresa Conrick was a board member of A CHIMP. I think that’s not a real organization.

    Simiantics! It’s not nice to pan troglodytes.

    From the article: “While environmental mercury exposure can be easily sidestepped by dietary restraint, mercury-laced flu vaccines are much more difficult to avoid in Illinois.”

    It’s more difficult to avoid environmental mercury than thimerosal in pediatric vaccines, unless you count the flu vaccine and the unfortunate macaca at Burbacher’s lab.

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