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Before the MMR science, the press conference

4 Sep

As I’ve already posted not once but twice, yet one more study has been published showing yet one more time that the MMR doesn’t cause autism.

Prior to the lifting of the embargo on the study itself, there was a press conference featuring some of the study authors (Lipkin and Hornig were both in attendance) and several journalists as well as ‘freelance writer’ David Kirby.

Most of the questions concentrated on what this study showed, however someone there wanted to try and use this new study to (somewhat bizarrely) exonerate the O’Leary lab’s role in the poor science done by Wakefield and in the lab’s role in the Cedillo hearing (where it was trounced for poor science).

The whole press conference is here.

As an example, here is David’s first question.

http://webjay.org/flash/dark_player

Now thats more a set of questions than _a_ question, the initial question regarding Hannah Poling is both inaccurate and pointless. Inaccurate as, regardless of what David claims, no statement has been published by anyone that states Hannah Poling’s autism was caused by a vaccine. Pointless as this science has absolutely no bearing on her case. It has never been claimed she had measles virus in her gut.

David’s second point regarding O’Leary is fascinating. Because one of the labs used in this new paper was O’Leary’s and because the lab performed well, David seems to be claiming that that exonerates the O’Leary lab from past errors. I’m not sure how that can be true. As Stephen Bustin clearly showed during the Cedillo hearing, the errors of the O’Leary lab were twofold. The first was one of methodology. They forgot to do an RT step. Now I don’t know what that means but it was clear that it was a fairly serious (and basic) error. What it caused was the O’Leary lab to falsely identify contaminants as measles RNA. The second error was failing to pick this contamination up. So its not just a case of contamination, its a case of poor procedure.

I’m going to hazard a guess here and suggest that since the time of Bustin’s initial investigation (some years ago now) the O’Leary lab have figured out how to do an RT Step.

David’s second question followed:

http://webjay.org/flash/dark_player

So, we’re back to the very small sub-population argument. I really want to know – if the leading supporter of the vaccine hypotheses is now angling towards this ‘sub-sub’ group, what impact does that have on the autism epidemic idea? I mean, how can you have an autism epidemic generated by a very small sub-sub group?

Anyway, the answer to David’s question from the assembled scientists was ‘uh, who knows? That’s not what our study was about’. Or words to that effect.

David’s third (and fourth) questions followed. Please listen carefully to the answers which I’ve left on. You might also want to note the (somewhat amusing) deep sigh from the guy answering David as David keeps trying to make him say that MMR isn’t totally 100% safe.

http://webjay.org/flash/dark_player

And then by the time of David’s attempted fifth question, the answering team were obviously getting a bit fed up.

http://webjay.org/flash/dark_player

So that (to me) is a pretty fascinating insight into the denial that exists even at the very highest levels of the autism/vaccine hypotheses.

Just as a postscript, David asked them (totally randomly it seemed) if the best study would be one of vaccinated vs unvaccinated kids. Here is the reply. A reply grounded in real science.

http://webjay.org/flash/dark_player

New MMR study makes the NAA angry

4 Sep

Oh dear.

As I posted yesterday, MMR still doesn’t cause autism – as reported by yet another group of researchers.

And yet there was something special about this group of researchers. The lead author is Dr Mady Hornig who it seems is trying to turn over a new leaf and recapture her place as a good scientist.

As the link I supplied shows, it was not always thus and for a long time Dr Hornig was a card carrying member of the mercury militia. In fact, she was a regular speaker at conferences organised by SafeMinds and the NAA.

Which makes the press release about this new MMR study by the NAA all the more painful to read.

A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study released today claims there is no link between the MMR vaccine and autism

Thats how the NAA refers the Hornig study all the way through its press release. ‘The CDC study’. Its a little like reading the decree nisi in the lead up to a divorce you just know is going to be long and bitter.

Anyway, lets have a look at the rest of the points the NAA try to make.

…In a 2002 paper where the majority of autistic children were found to have measles in their intestines, the children examined showed a clear temporal link between MMR exposure and regression. The CDC’s attempt to replicate the 2002 study fell far short of proving the safety of the MMR vaccine.

No reference is supplied for this ‘2002 paper’ so I have no idea what to talk about here. Thats not very smart NAA. Also, as discussed yesterday in the press conference, the intent was to replicate Wakefield’s original study. In 1998. Not 2002.

The CDC study was designed to detect persistent measles virus in autistic children with GI problems. The assumption being if there is no measles virus at the long delayed time of biopsy, there is no link between autism and MMR. But NAA says this underlying assumption is wrong. The questions should have been: Do normally developing children meeting all milestones have an MMR shot, develop GI problems and then regress into autism? Do they have evidence of measles and disease in their colons compared to non-vaccinated age and sex matched controls?

Ahhh, I _see_ – so when you don’t like the answer, change the question? Nice one. The NAA are obviously South Park fans, seeing as they just introduced the Chewbacca defense.

In the current CDC study, only a small subgroup of children was the correct phenotype to study……Only 5 of 25 subjects (20%) had received MMR before the onset of GI complaints and had also had onset of GI episodes before the onset of AUT (P=0.03).” The other 20 autistic children in the study had GI problems but the pathology developed before the MMR vaccine.

This really does take the piss in an extreme way. The NAA love the 1998 study by Wakefield which had a group of 12 participants. Now they suddenly don’t like small numbers?

And really, that is besides the point. The authors took some autistic kids with GI issues and then looked to match them to a hypothesis. The fact that the only found a very, very small number who actually fit the description that the NAA would _like_ them to fit is extremely telling. The vast majority of the kids had GI issues _before administration of MMR_ . Now, what does that tell you? Its not difficult to work out.

Inflammatory bowel disease in the absence of MMR RNA does not mean that MMR shot didn’t precipitate the GI disease and didn’t precipitate autism…

Oho…is that the rumble of some goalpost shifting I can hear? I think it is.

Lets be clear. For literally a decade now, the NAA and the groups like it have been claiming that their kids had the MMR, developed gastric issues, then developed autism all as a result of the measles vaccine RNA contained in the measles component of the MMR. This is the hypothesis that the Autism Omnibus plaintiffs are arguing for right now. This study has thrown yet another large, cold bucket of reality over that nonsense. So now, thats _not_ the hypothesis?

Public confidence in the safety of vaccines is at risk until safety studies are performed that are required by law, ethics, and science….blah blah blah

Is it? If that _was_ the case then the only people who have put the public confidence of vaccines at risk are groups like the NAA. There is no way to keep saying the same thing without appearing repetitive: what you believe is wrong. The MMR vaccine does not cause autism. Shut up. Start working _for_ autism.

And is it really the case that public confidence is slipping? I recently wrote about a phone survey that had found that:

….66 percent had heard that “some parents and researchers say vaccines have side effects that may lead to autism, asthma, diabetes, attention deficit disorder and other medical problems.” About 33 percent had not heard of these concerns, and 1 percent was uncertain.

Seventy-one percent of the adults said “the benefits of immunizations outweigh the risks,” while 19 percent “have questions about the risks of immunization,” and 10 percent were uncertain or gave other responses such as “it depends upon the kind of immunization.”

So, its clear that people (in the US at least) are beginning to get some confidence back in vaccines and see the need for them. That is backed up by an article by the American Academy of Family Physicians who report:

Although the alleged link between childhood autism and the vaccine preservative thimerosal still sparks occasional controversy, the good news is that by and large, parents don’t seem to be buying into the hype. According to the latest reports available from the CDC, overall childhood immunization rates in the United States continue to steadily increase.

This is good news. Partly anyway. It is good news for herd immunity and the general level of the health of the US.

However, this is never going to be good news for autism and for autistic people whilst we have the various conspiracy theory addled groups who claim to represent the autism community continually burying their collective heads in the sand whenever yet another study comes out to show them how silly they’re being. I urge two things to happen.

1) Doctors and scientists – please don’t stop talking about this issue once vaccinations reach safe levels. Your job is only part done at that stage. You *must* continue to talk to reach new parents and the parents who can be reached from the autism community. Don’t let these kooks get the control back.

2) So-called autism advocacy groups in the US and UK. You know who you are. You’re doing nothing to help autistic people. Change your ways or shut up.

"I don't believe that"

29 Aug

To promote his new book ‘Autism’s False Prophets. Bad science, risky medicine and the search for a cure’ (Amazon UK, Amazon US, Amazon Canada) – and look for a review here very, very soon – Dr Paul Offit went on the US radio show Talk of the nation ‘Science Friday’ earlier today.

It turned into a microcosm of exactly the sort of scenario that those of us who have blogged about this for some time have come to expect. A question, a reasoned response and then a flat statement of denial.

The show began with the show host (who’s name I didn’t catch) asking why people weren’t vaccinating. Offit gave the answers we all know.

Then the show took a turn into what could’ve been a blog argument on any one of a number of blogs – including this one. A caller called Chantelle/Chantal came on the line and essentially asked Dr Offit how it could possibly be safe for a newborn to receive up to 1250micrograms of Aluminium and that there hadn’t been any studies on how Aluminium could affect a child. She said –

that is why I will not follow the CDC’s guidelines….my child will be vaccinated on my own schedule.

(Her emphasis)

Dr Offit answered with a brief overview of Aluminium’s role in a vaccine is and then told Chantal the simple truth – one that I blogged about fairly recently – there’s more Aluminium in between 50 days to a years worth of breast milk than in the entire vaccine schedule:

We live on the planet Earth. If we choose to live on the planet Earth that means we’re going to be exposed to light metals like Aluminium and heavy metals like mercury.

Chantal then seemed (I wasn’t entirely clear) to want to compare kids with kidney issues (who clearly need to be careful with Aluminium) with _all_ kids. As Dr Offit stated – that’s hardly a valid or real-world comparison.

Then the host asked a great question:

Chantal, is there anything Dr Offit could tell you that would change your mind

.

The answer: “Absolutely not”.

And there we have it. That is the rock bottom of every single argument the autism/antivax brigade peddle. Screw the science, screw the facts. I just don’t want to hear it and I will put my fingers in my ears and make ‘la-la’ noises until you go away.

Chantal then goes on to justify this ridiculous stance by saying (a la Jenny McCarthy) that there is no independent science supporting vaccine safety. This is tosh. A study this is submitted for peer review to a science journal is peer reviewed by independent experts from the relevant field all over the world. And then, the ultimate test of impartiality takes place – the science is either replicated or it isn’t. Replicated science _has to be_ by definition be independent of its author. How could it not be? If we want to see the opposite of reproducible science, then that can be arranged.

Chantal goes on to say that Dr Offit ‘makes millions’ from speaking about the safety of vaccines. A bizarre claim that I’m pretty sure is not true. He then goes on to describe the ‘high bar’ that vaccine studies must pass. Studies with tens of thousands of participants.

Next, Chantal tries the ‘too many too soon’ dogma that we’ve become recently familiar with. She claims ‘six at one time is absurd’. Dr Offit gives Chantal some facts to play with on that score too:

…the bacteria that live on their nose [a newborn], or the surface of their throat are literally in the trillions. Those bacteria have between 2,000 and 6,000 immunological components and consequently our body makes grams of antibody to combat these bacteria….The number of immunological challenges contained in vaccines is not figuratively, it is literally a drop in the ocean of what you encounter every day.

(Emphasis his, slight paraphrasing)

Chantal then got a bit snappy.

So tell me…how many studies have been done on vaccine loading, which means five or six vaccines at one time. How many?

Dr Offit’s answer:

Somewhere in the vicinity of the high hundreds to low thousands.

Chantal:

I don’t believe that.

Boom! There it is again – she simply doesn’t believe it. Screw the facts, screw the evidence, my fingers are going right back in my ears…la-la-la-la…I can’t hear you…

Dr Offit explains further that any vaccine in the US has to undergo something called a ‘concomitant use study’. These are to establish that vaccines work OK together.

You have to show that vaccine does not interfere with the immune response or the safety of existing vaccines and similarly that existing vaccines don’t interfere with the immune response or the safety of the new vaccine

Dr Offit said ‘high hundreds to low thousands’ of studies (Chantal didn’t believe that remember). A simple Google search reveals over 1,800 results for that phrase. Searching PubMed for ‘concomitant vaccine’ returns over 700.

Dr Offit closes the interview by saying he doesn’t believe all parents are as close minded as Chantal. He uses a nicer phrase than that as he’s a gentleman but that’s how I see it. Close minded to the point of obstinate stupidity.

For some people, it truly doesn’t matter what the facts are, or what the science is. They just stick their fingers in their ears.

La-la-la.

Endemic in the UK

25 Aug

Endemic:

Adj. 1. endemic – of or relating to a disease (or anything resembling a disease) constantly present to greater or lesser extent in a particular locality; “diseases endemic to the tropics”; “endemic malaria”; “food shortages and starvation are endemic in certain parts of the world”

Or, another example is measles in the UK.

How very shameful in the year 2008 that we have allowed one person to create an all-encompassing atmosphere of fear – groundless fear at that – that has allowed a disease that 10 years ago was virtually unheard of to return with such vengeance that two children have died in the past two years and many more have been hospitalised.

There are two reasons I find this shameful. Firstly, there is the fact that as an autism parent I am ‘judged’ every time I leave the house. We all are. The people who stare, the people who do double takes, the people whispering behind their hands. What are they saying now? How long will it be before the general public cotton on to the fact that measles _is_ now endemic is largely due to autism parents and the quacks they pay huge amounts of money to? As a community of parents we are divided and when people ask why that is or ‘can’t we just come together?’ on this issue, this is why.

*I cannot condone or stand by quietly whilst the autism community sinks into becoming a convenient media scapegoat. Neither can I stand by and say nothing whilst autism parents sink deeper and deeper into anti-vaccinationism and pretend that hospitalisation and death in the name of chasing a belief for which there is no proof is OK.*

The CDC’s Jane Seward (deputy director of the division of viral diseases) is interviewed today by Scientific American.

…in the 1960s, right before the vaccine was developed, it killed 400 to 500 children every year out of 500,000 reported cases at that time.

That’s a death every 1,111 reported cases. The current US measles epidemic has 163 cases. You’re nearly 15% there already.

Seward also says there were 4,000 cases of encephalitis a year resulting from measles in the 60’s and goes on to describe some of things that can follow on from encephalitis. Quite a lot of anti-vaccine believers say that encephalitis can lead to autism. Taste the irony.

Here's a story you won't see on Age of Autism

10 Jul

Not without substantial spin anyway.

The measles outbreak continues to push through the US:

The biggest U.S. outbreak of measles since 1997 has sickened 127 people in 15 states, most of whom were not vaccinated against the highly contagious viral illness, federal health officials said on Wednesday.

These are the consequences of not vaccinating.

Oh but measles is nothing right? Just a bit of a rash and then you’re done, right?

Maybe not.

A teenage boy has become the first person in the UK to die from measles for two years as cases of the disease continue to rise, Government scientists have said….The teenager, from West Yorkshire, who has not been named, had been born with a poor immune system, leaving him susceptible to infections and unlikely to have been able to be immunised. However, he would have been protected if there had been high vaccination rates in the community.

Because of the MMR scare in the late 1990s when the measles, mumps and rubella jab was linked to bowel disorders and autism, vaccinations levels have dropped below the threshold required to control the diseases.

Its really not difficult.

MMR doesn’t cause autism.
MMR helps raise herd immunity against measles, mumps and rubella.
High herd immunity means weakened members of ‘the herd’ don’t die.

Take MMR.

Enforced Vaccination

11 May

I don’t like this, I really don’t.

I know I advocate for the undoubted and scientifically established benefits of vaccination and will continue to do so, but the news that the influential Fabian Society have recommended a policy of enforced vaccination is not good.

In an article for the Fabian Society, leading public health expert Sir Sandy Macara called for child benefit to be linked with vaccination uptake.

And Labour MP Mary Creagh said children should have to prove they are vaccinated before they start school to improve uptake of MMR.

Call for vaccine opt-out penalty

I’m all up for improving the uptake of MMR, I think that is a worthy and vital goal. But is this – educationally and financially punishing children – the right way to do it? Because make no mistake, the parents won’t particularly care that their kids are home schooled. And the type of parent who doesn’t vaccinate (wealthy, white middle class) won’t miss the child benefit. But the child at the heart of these penalties may well miss scholastic education. As a home schoolers ourselves (less through choice than lack of any other option) one of the things we are keenly aware our child misses is the company of her peers in an educational setting.

For those who don’t know, the Fabian Society is a ‘middle-left’ think tank that recommends policy to Labour Party members, particularly influential whilst we have a Labour government (as we do now). They reached this recommendation apparently after:

A poll by YouGov for the Fabian Society suggested that the public would back government action on MMR to address large rises in mumps and measles’ cases. It found that 63% of the public felt that immunisation only worked if everyone was covered, and only 31%felt if was purely up to families to make the choice.

MMR press release

YouGov are a well thought-of (in terms of results accuracy) market research agency. I’ve little doubt the figures they collected are correct. I still don’t like it though. I think that something needs to be done, but this? The penalties seem targeted to ‘hit’ the kids. It also seems tantamount to admitting that attempts to utilise the excellent, freely available science that has killed the MMR hypothesis is pointless.

I’m also frankly disturbed by this quote from Fabian review author Sir Sandy Macara:

One ought to recognise that mothers have a responsibility for ensuring their children are protected.

Mothers? Not parents?

This seems ill thought out, knee-jerk-ish and guaranteed to play into the hands of the conspiracy theorists. We need to do better – much better – than this.

Age of Autism Excels Itself

4 May

It’s my opinion that the blog Age of Autism has not ever once published a post that has contributed anything to the sum of human knowledge in a general sense, nor has it ever published a post that is designed to actually help autistic people live their lives.

However, every once in awhile, it publishes a post that is so monumentally stupid that I literally think the worse of myself for wasting time reading it. And here I am actually blogging about one. Sigh.

Such a post appeared today. It is entitled ‘CDC triggers measles outbreak’. The author of this post, ex-UPI journo Dan Olmsted says:

I’m starting to think we should rename the CDC the Centers for Disease Contagion. You’ve all seen the news that there are suddenly more measles cases in the United States and the CDC is blaming it in part on the increasing reluctance of parents to vaccinate their kids.

But it’s the CDC’s fault, and no other. Getting the “measles shot” means getting the MMR, and the MMR is “the autism shot” in the minds of many, many parents.

So, let me get this straight. It is the CDC’s fault that measles is making a return across the US? I see.

Its not, for example, the fault of the non-vaccinating upper-middle class soccer-mommies and daddies, for example:

Of the 64 people infected by the measles virus, only 1 had documentation of prior vaccination. Among the other 63 case-patients were 14 infants who were too young to be vaccinated. Many of the cases among US children occurred in children whose parents claimed exemption from vaccination due to religious or personal beliefs, or in children too young to be vaccinated.

Hell, no. _That_ couldn’t be the issue, right? Its obviously the CDC’s fault. Damn them for providing the vaccines and a schedule that has led to serious measles epidemics being held at bay in the US and the UK prior to the last 10 years of utter complacency and idiocy.

And why is Dan Olmsted happy to blame the CDC?

Let me tell you one reason why I’m not shy or circumspect about squarely blaming the CDC for this — because Jon Poling, Hannah’s dad, predicted something like this, or much worse, just a few week ago

And as we all know:

Dr, Poling is the real deal, educated at Johns Hopkins, devoted both to his daughter and his patients, tempered by reality. He’s mild-mannered. He’s mainstream. He’s credible.

Riiiiight. This is the same Jon Poling who was recently described by his co-authors as ‘muddying the waters’. The same Jon Poling who’s wife has been a subscriber to the vaccine hypothesis since at least 2001. The same Jon Poling who knowingly uses incorrect epidemiology.

I’m afraid that Jon Poling is right now in the process of extricating himself from the mainstream. And also from any concept of credibility. His refusal to approve access to information that would provide more accuracy to public statements members of his clique have made about the situation is testament to a man who is not governed by any reality other than a desire to push a pre-conceived agenda.

But really, the attempt to point the finger elsewhere by Dan Olmsted is nothing more than a childish ‘It wasn’t me! Its not my fault!’ when both logic and morality show quite clearly that if people decide to eschew something that might not only save their kids lives but the lives and/or well-being of the society in which they live then the finger of responsibility can only point in one direction.

US Reports Biggest Measles Outbreak Since 2001

2 May

The biggest U.S. outbreak of measles since 2001 is unfolding in 10 states, with at least 72 people ranging from infants to the elderly becoming ill — most of them unvaccinated, U.S. health officials said on Thursday.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said none of those who caught the highly contagious viral illness has died, but at least 14 people have been hospitalized, most with pneumonia triggered by measles.

Lets hope that none of these 14 actually get any worse or (god forbid) die. Lets hope that no one else gets sick. The last time people dies of measles in the US was 1991, the year before that pesky vaccine schedule was strengthened – not that that has any bearing on the matter I’m sure.

1989 to 1991, when 55,000 people got measles and 123 died.

On this recent outbreak, the CDC said:

Of the 64 people infected by the measles virus, only 1 had documentation of prior vaccination. Among the other 63 case-patients were 14 infants who were too young to be vaccinated. Many of the cases among US children occurred in children whose parents claimed exemption from vaccination due to religious or personal beliefs, or in children too young to be vaccinated.

Anti-vaccinationists inflict the coolest things on their kids. Illness, hospitalisation, death….

I wonder if any of these things will make it onto the no doubt completely rational signs the parents attending the ‘Green our vaccines’ rally will be waving around. After all, when the organiser of the event says:

I am surely not going to tell anyone to vaccinate. But if I had another child, there’s no way in hell…….for my next kid—which I’m never going to have—there’s no way.

Then you can rest assured that this will in no way be an anti-vaccine event.

Right?

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