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Reading Age of Autism Part 3 – Building the case

12 Oct

Chapter 3 of Age of Autism (Age of Acrodynia) concentrates on two things. Firstly the text discusses Pink Disease which is:

…a disease of infancy and early childhood marked by pain and swelling in, and pink coloration of, the fingers and toes and by listlessness, irritability, failure to thrive, profuse perspiration, and sometimes scarlet coloration of the cheeks and tip of the nose. It is due to absorption of mercury. Called also erythredema polyneuropathy and pink disease.

Source

OK so thats all well and good. However the _subtext_ of this chapter is a little bit more paranoiac. Oh and when I say ‘subtext’ I’m being kind. It’s really not subtle enough to be a subtext.

Point one of the subtext – establish the idea that all forms of mercury poisoning are different from each other:

Over centuries of misuse, wide variations in formulation have generated a wide variety of symptoms, symptoms disparate enough to generate consistent controversy over whether they resulted from mercury exposure or something else. Anyone who believes he or she has isolated mercury’s specific effects and pinned one on an exact dose of a particular formulation is….showing a naive and inadequately respectful grasp of the dangers of quicksilver and its progeny.

Page 94

Here Blaxill and Olmsted begin to build the case that autism is _different than any other form of mercury poisoning_ and that those of us who believe it looks nothing like mercury poisoning are ‘naive’.

However, what Blaxill and Olmsted fail to grasp- or tell the reader – is that there are symptoms common to all forms of mercury poisoning which just do not apply to autism.

Methylmercury poisoning
– impairment of the peripheral vision;
– disturbances in sensations (“pins and needles” feelings, usually in the hands, feet, and around the mouth);
– lack of coordination of movements;
– impairment of speech, hearing, walking; and
– muscle weakness.

Elemental mercury effects
– tremors;
– emotional changes (e.g., mood swings, irritability, nervousness, excessive shyness);
– insomnia;
– neuromuscular changes (such as weakness, muscle atrophy, twitching);
– headaches;
– disturbances in sensations;
– changes in nerve responses;
– performance deficits on tests of cognitive function.

Inorganic mercury
– skin rashes and dermatitis;
– mood swings;
– memory loss;
– mental disturbances; and
– muscle weakness.

Source.

None of these symptoms look anything at all like autism to me. Sorry boys, swing and a miss.

Point two of the subtext – establish the idea that all forms of mercury poisoning were unique to their times.

Pink disease was _new_ . Once again the remedy was the disease and once again the clues were there.

By attempting to establish that Pink disease was new, it will be easier later on in the text for Blaxill and Olmsted to pretend knowledge that posits _autism_ as new. Once again though, they are troubled by the fact that autism doesn’t look like mercury poisoning…or are they?

Perhaps the most affecting evidence of calomel’s tragic legacy comes from the testimony of those who suffered from Pink disease and are now adults, many of whom still suffer from severe side effects. A high profile survivor is Heather Theile of Australia. She founded the Pink Disease Support Group in 1989. She describes her life today:

n particular, I have a terrible sense of position of both my body and hands. For example, it takes me ages to line up a clothesline, the clothes and the pegs to hang out clothes. I have to have a rope hanging down from the ceiling of my car port to be able to have a guide to park the car in the correct place. I am hopeless with any locks, catches, car seat catches etc. I go to open a door, but miss the catch by inches. I drift when walking and often bump into walls and doors. I cannot cope with verbal instructions at all and have to write “everything” down. This is known as “thinking in pictures” (Temple Grandin).

Grandin is probably the most famous person in the world diagnosed with autism; Thinking in pictures is the name of her best known book.

Well Dan and Mark, Heather Theile also says:

…As you said “mercury is mercury is mercury”, and I would add, “mercury poisoning is mercury poisoning is mercury poisoning”.

Given that you’ve worked so hard to shake off that very notion in the last three chapters, would you say Heather Thiele is _really_ someone you can rely on to be objective?

The game stepped up in this last chapter. Blaxill and Olmsted are working hard to prepare the ground for their main idea – autism is both new and a new form of mercury poisoning. However so far, they’re not doing all that well.

Incidence of autism in Berkshire

30 Sep

A Reading Borough Council report has shown that the incidence of autism in a borough of Reading, Tilehurst has increased over a period of eight years (2000 – 2008) from 68 to 186, more than doubling.

Lets put these figures in context of a few things. Firstly, thiomersal. Thiomersal was removed from all UK vaccines in 2004. The average age of autism diagnosis is five and a half (PDF) in the UK. This would mean that if thiomersal caused autism, a significant drop off in autism incidence would have been reported to have been occurring during late 2009 early 2010. This was not reported. This could be because the report did not go beyond 2008 but again there’s no mention of that either and I can’t find the relevant document on the Reading Borough Council website

Secondly, the report seems quite clear to refer to diagnoses of ASD which includes PDD-NOS and Aspergers Syndrome. Kate Manton of Berkshire Autism Society says:

People are being diagnosed much earlier now than they were 10 years ago. Children at two and a half are being diagnosed, if the condition is fairly severe.

Thirty years ago [someone] who was disruptive in class but fairly bright would be called naughty.

All good points and ones which mitigate against the obvious simplistic claims that there is some sort of epidemic of autism. There may well be some sort of ‘epidemic’ of _recognition_ of autism in all its many forms but thats not the same thing at all.

I’m left wishing I could get hold of a copy of the same data that the BBC did so to that end I have requested that the BBC send me a copy of the report. Hopefully they’ll reply.

Crist backer Gary Kompothecras bullies Florida health officials

28 Sep

Crist backer Gary Kompothecras bullies Florida health officials, a story in the Miami New Times, discusses how a wealthy man is attempting to exert influence to get Dr. Mark and Mr. David Geier access to Florida Department of Health records.

Here are the first three paragraphs:

“This madness has got to stop. No more double talk. This should be a fairly straightforward study. I feel that there are hidden agendas going on and I will not stand by [and] let it continue!! I will not wait any longer,” reads an email dated August 6 from Dr. Gary Kompothecras to Dr. Julia Gill, director of the Florida Department of Health’s (DOH) Division of Disease Control.

Coming from anyone else, the blustery email threat might be easily dismissed. But “Dr. Gary,” as Kompothecras is known, is the self-styled “Rainmaker,” a Sarasota chiropractor who has raised more than $1 million over the years for Senate candidate and soon-to-be ex-governor Charlie Crist.

So it’s bound to turn heads when the man known to occasionally lend his private jet to the governor uses his political clout to try to bully Florida health officials into turning over scores of the state’s sealed immunization records. Especially when they’re for a father-son team, Dr. Mark and David Geier, infamous for injecting autistic children with Lupron, a drug used to chemically castrate prostate cancer patients and pedophiles.

Dr. David Gorski, who blogs at Science Based Medicine, was quoted:

According to Dr. David Gorski, founding fellow of the Institute for Science in Medicine and an NIH-funded cancer researcher, the Geiers’ Lupron treatment is “in essence, chemical castration in order to treat autism based on no reliable science.” Says Gorski: “The concept that [the Geiers] embraced isn’t even bad science. It’s just not science.”

As I commented on the webpage for the story, when it comes to thimerosal in vaccines and autism, the recent study in Pediatrics far surpasses anything the Geiers could accomplish with the data from Florida.

If the information I have is accurate, Mr. Kompothecras filed in the Court of Federal Claims (vaccine court) for two children. One case has been closed and the other is still pending. (correction–there appear to have been three cases opened. One has been closed)

Safeminds comments on the latest thimerosal-autism study

21 Sep

SafeMinds is an organization which has long promoted the idea that thimerosal caused an autism epidemic. They may be the single greatest force that got the idea into the public’s eye, and got research funding focused on looking at the question.

SafeMinds has shown themselves to be very resistant to the very research they called for. Studies which show a lack of association between thimerosal containing vaccines (TCV’s) and autism are always rejected by SafeMinds. They are not alone in this, groups such as Generation Rescue and the National Autism Association (NAA) have also refused to accept the science.

So it was with no surprise that I read that SafeMinds had issued a statement against the study. The statement starts by pointing out that the study was funded and performed by those with conflicts–the CDC, Abt (an organization which does contract research for groups including the CDC), and HMO’s “which receive substantial funding from vaccine manufacturers to conduct vaccine licensing research”.

If we can’t use the HMO’s to work on such project, that sort of takes away the VSD as a tool. It certainly takes away the opportunity to do anything more than passive surveillance of the VSD data. One of the strengths of the Price study was the effort to do more than just review the medical charts. They worked with the children, both cases and controls, to verify that the autism counts were accurate. I bring this up because groups like SafeMinds frequently request access to VSD data.

SafeMinds also discusses the study methodology:

The study sample did not allow an examination of an exposed versus an unexposed group, or even a high versus a low exposed group, but rather the study mostly examined the effect of timing of exposure on autism rates.

There is much wrong with the above statement. Let’s start with where they are close to correct. The study sample did not allow for a direct comparison (with good statistics) of exposed vs. unexposed. This is true. This is because there are few unexposed kids (unexposed=no thimerosal exposure in this study. Unexposed does not mean no vaccines). If you look at exhibit 9.1.4 from the technical reports by Abt associates (the detailed reports on the study), you will see about 20-30 “unexposed” children. I.e. children with no thimerosal exposure. Of those, about 3-4 (out of 1,000) had no HiB, HepB or DTP vaccine vaccine at all (MMR isn’t listed as it is not a source of thimerosal). This is in line with estimates by the CDC of how many children are unvaccinated (typically about 0.4%). (as an aside–this points out how difficult it would be to do a good study of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated children using the VSD. Seriously, with 99.6% of kids receiving at least one vaccine, you would need a huge number of kids to get the number of unvaccinated needed for good statistics).

Here is that exhibit, with the no-exposure kids circled. (click to enlarge)

It would appear to this reader that the issue of unexposed vs. exposed isn’t so much one of “study design” as the limitations of the VSD itself. There just aren’t that many autistic kids to make a good statistical comparison of unexposed vs. exposed populations.

And, it should be noted, an unexposed vs. exposed comparison wasn’t the purpose of this study. One big question posed by SafeMinds and later picked up by groups such as Generation Rescue was simple: did the increase in thimerosal exposure from vaccines in the 1990’s result in an “epidemic” of autism? This is the question this study addressed.

I am at a loss as to why SafeMinds wrote this: “….or even a high versus a low exposed group, but rather the study mostly examined the effect of timing of exposure on autism rates”. Contrary to SafeMinds’ assertion, there is a large variation on thimerosal exposure in the study subjects. One of the surprising facts from this study was the number of children receiving thimerosal-free vaccines. This, together with variations in the number of vaccines administered, led to a much larger distribution in thimerosal exposures than one would expect based on the vaccine schedule alone.

Thus, the study was not on “timing” at all. It was, as advertised, on variation of exposure of thimerosal. The question is (at least to me), does the range of exposure amount to significant number of kids having “low” levels of exposure by SafeMinds’ definition?

The answer, it turns out, is yes.

Safeminds has the following statement on their website:

[Autism] remained rare (1 in 10,000) until the rapid escalation of vaccines beginning in the late 1980’s (from 10 shots of 7 antigens in 1983 to 36 shots of 15 antigens). Vaccines are a likely candidate to explain some, if not most of the rise in autism cases and possibly other chronic childhood disorders linked to immune system malfunction.

In one of the seminal papers on the thimerosal was co-written by SafeMinds founder Lyn Redwood Autism: a novel form of mercury
poisoning. In it, the authors state:

The discovery and rise in prevalence of ASD mirrors the introduction and spread of TMS in vaccines. Autism was first described in 1943 among children born in the 1930s (123). Thimerosal was first introduced into vaccines in the 1930s (7). In studies conducted prior to 1970, autism prevalence was estimated, at 1 in 2000; in studies from 1970 to 1990 it averaged 1 in 1000 (124). This was a period of increased vaccination rates of the TMS containing DPT vaccines among children in the developed world. In the early 1990s, the prevalence of autism was found to be 1 in 500 (125), and in 2000 the CDC found 1 in 150 children affected in one community, which was consistent with reports from other areas in the country (126). In the late 1980s and early 1990s, two new TMS vaccines, the HIB and Hepatitis B, were added to the recommended schedule (7).

I know I am spending a lot of time on this point, but it is important. The idea that there is a dose-response relationship between thimerosal and the presumed risk of autism is fundamental to the arguments made by groups like SafeMinds.

A sister organization to SafeMinds, Generation Rescue, says the same thing. In their take, “This is the schedule from 1983. If it worked for kids then, why doesn’t it work for kids now?”. Generation Rescue leader and spokesperson Jenny McCarthy wrote in her book, Healing and Preventing Autism: A Complete Guide, “In 1983, we had 10 shots on the vaccine schedule and autism was one in 10,000. Today there are 36 given and autism is nearing one in 100”. I.e. if we go back to the 1983 vaccine schedule, autism rates should drop to 1 in 10,000.

The 1983 schedule, as graphically presented in expensive full page newspaper ads by Generation Rescue, included 4 DPT shots (yes, the old whole cell pertussis vaccine). Each of those shots included 25 micrograms of mercury.

It strikes this reader that the thimerosal exposure from 4 DPT shots, the amount in the 1983 schedule that supposedly only resulted in 1 in 10,000 kids having autism, should be a “low” exposure amount. If groups are going to point to 1983 as a safer schedule and point to the increases in thimerosal exposure in the 1990’s as the major sign of the “epidemic”, we should be able to take their word that the levels in 1983 were somehow safer.

Let’s look at that figure from the Price study again, shall we? I will highlight how many kids have “low exposure” (i.e. comparable to the 1983 vaccine schedule) to thimerosal. Again, click to enlarge if you wish.

By my eye, something approaching 50% of the kids in the study received the thimerosal exposure of the 1983 schedule. Certainly more than 25%. Those highlighted in red have the same thimerosal exposure as kids did in 1983, so they should have the same autism prevalence that SafeMinds and Generation Rescue claim for that time period: 1 in 10,000.

If that group has a prevalence of 1 in 10,000–or even anything significantly lower than the prevalence of those with higher thimerosal exposure– this study would have found it.

In other words, a thimerosal-induced epidemic of autism didn’t happen. Even using the logic that SafeMinds used to hypothesize it in the first place:that, somehow, the thimerosal exposures in 1983 resulted in a low autism prevalence.

Yes, this is far from rigorous. But, so is the logic that claims that increased thimerosal exposure led to an autism epidemic.

If we read further into the SafeMinds response, we see some of the confusion:

The study sample did not allow an examination of an exposed versus an unexposed group, or even a high versus a low exposed group, but rather the study mostly examined the effect of timing of exposure on autism rates. There were virtually no subjects who were unvaccinated and few who were truly less vaccinated; rather, the low exposed group was mostly just late relative to the higher exposed group, ie, those vaccinating on time.

SafeMinds seems to be assuming this is a study on the number of vaccines, not the amount of thimerosal. They also don’t appear to have read the study thoroughly enough to note that, yes, there is a large fraction who were “less vaccinated” and, more importantly to this study, a large fraction who had lower thimerosal exposures. As noted above, the low thimerosal exposures result from the fact that many of the children received thimerosal free vaccines.

It is unfortunate that SafeMinds (and other groups like them) can not adapt to science as it comes out. Science which clearly shows that many of their hypotheses were wrong.

The Respectful Insolence blog also discusses some of the failings of the SafeMinds response.

Hannah Poling and the Pediatrics thimerosal study: two “big” stories with little press response

18 Sep

Two stories which are “big” news in some segments of the online autism community are the settlement amount for Hannah Poling and the recent study showing no link between autism and thimerosal in vaccines. While these have caused a fair amount of discussion on blogs (like this one), they didn’t generate that much press coverage.

We broke the Hannah Poling award story here on LeftBrainRightBrain on September 3. The story was ignored, even by such pro autism-as-vaccine-injury blogs as the Age of Autism until September 9th, when Sharyl Attkisson (who has some connection to the people at the Age of Autism blog) wrote about it for CBS.

There are a couple of dozen entries in Google News on Hannah Poling. Few major outlets. One that did carry it is the Atlanta Journal Constitution, the home town newspaper for the Poling family. In Settlement reached in autism-vaccine case the AJC quoted Dr. John Shoffner:

Dr. John Shoffner, a neurologist and national expert who has conducted research on autism and its causes, said researchers have found no link between vaccines and autism. And he said he strongly favors vaccination.

“The preponderance of data shows that vaccines are important and safe for children to prevent preventable and sometimes life-threatening infectious diseases,” Shoffner said. “I certainly am in favor and support the CDC’s as well as the American Academy of Pediatrics’ recommendation of vaccination.”

Shoffner is a co-author of a journal article that describes Poling’s case without naming her.

Edited to add: I forgot to include this quote from the Atlanta Journal Constitution:

“It’s critical to remember that the government has never compensated, nor has it ever been ordered to compensate, any case based on a determination that autism was actually caused by vaccines,” said Martin Kramer, communications director for the Health Resources and Services Administration. The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program is part of the administration. The U.S. Court of Federal Claims decides who will be paid damages for injuries that result from vaccines, under a 1988 law that created a program.

Another so-called “big” story from the last few weeks is the study on autism and thimerosal in Pediatrics, Prenatal and Infant Exposure to Thimerosal From Vaccines and Immunoglobulins and Risk of Autism. Sometimes when an important paper comes out (that I am aware of) I watch Google News as the embargo is lifted. I did so with this paper. Nothing happened. OK, I think Disability Scoop had a story out right at midnight (this one, if I recall correctly). Heck, it wasn’t until Friday that the CDC added the study to their website (it isn’t mentioned on the main cdc.gov webpage). Even SafeMinds (who are, in cases like this SafeBet–as in, it is a safe bet they will put out a critique of the paper) didn’t respond for days.

Sure, I was interested. And, yes, these stories sparked some of the most active conversations on this blog in a while. But I am still left with the basic conclusion: the general public has already absorbed these stories. The government conceded the Hannah Poling case 2 years ago. It isn’t new. The idea that mercury in vaccines cause autism–no longer part of the front line public discussion.

I’m not the only one to make this comment. The Washington Post had this to say four days after the paper was made public:

But when the journal Pediatrics published on Monday a study that found no increased risk of autism among more than 1,000 babies who’d been exposed prenatally or in the first 20 months of life to ethylmercury from vaccines, it was met with a general shrug. Neither The Washington Post nor The New York Times even reported on it, though the Los Angeles Times did, in its Booster Shots blog.

Sure, these stories will never completely go away. The vaccine/autism story will never go completely away. But the heyday is over.

New thimerosal/autism paper – signal vs noise

13 Sep

The new thiomersal paper that Sully has blogged will be attacked by the antivaxxers in at least one key area. The area that will be attacked is – to those well schooled in the way good science operates – a standard way to improve the signal to noise ratio of the results. Or to put it another way, ensures ‘cleaner’ results.

From the paper:

…Children were excluded if they had the following medical conditions with known links to ASD traits: fragile X syndrome; tuberous sclerosis; Rett syndrome; congenital rubella syndrome; or Angelman syndrome…

So first of all why were children that fell within these groups excluded? As I said, the answer is to ensure better data. In order to get a cleaner signal, the more noise that can be eradicated the better.

In this instance, children who already have existing medical conditions known to be related to autism would produce noise. We already know what caused their autistic traits hence establishing a clear link to thiomersal would not be possible. In a very meaningful way, doing this does a large favour for antivax group. If these children were eradicated from the study and a clear link to thiomersal _had_ been established then denying the link would be very much more difficult.

However don’t expect the antivaxxers to see this. Or even if they _do_ see it, they will look away purposefully. They will use the fact that these children were excluded and say _”See? ‘They’ have to hide the autistic children!”_ .

When you see this tactic – and you will see it – see it for what it is. It’s simple noise generation to obscure the clear signal coming through. Thimerosal in vaccines doesn’t cause autism. And it never did.

Congenital Rubella Syndrome: a Novel Form of Mercury Poisoning?

13 Sep

I considered titling this: A peak into the upcoming book “Age of Autism?” as this seems to show us the sorts of arguments that will be made in that book.

One of the known environmental causes of autism is Congenital Rubella Syndrome, or CRS. This was discussed as part of a presentation to the IACC, What Causes Autism? The Case for an Environmental Contribution, by Dr. Philip Landrigan. (video is here, starting at about minute 79. Sorry it doesn’t embed).

In the question/answer session for that presentation on at about 114 minutes into the IACC meeting) Lyn Redwood of SafeMinds brought up a new argument–that CRS induced autism may be due to mercury. It turns out that in the 1950’s gamma globulin therapy was started as a means of preventing CRS. Gamma Globulin was injected into pregnant mothers who to prevent or reduce the rubella infections. This exposed the mother and fetus to mercury and should be considered the cause of the autism according to Ms. Redwood.

I must admit that when I heard this question I thought: “Well, here is one of the talking points we will hear from the upcoming book, ‘Age of Autism’, by Mark Blaxill and Dan Olmsted”. Their book appears to be an attempt to tie all of autism (and many other conditions) to mercury, including, I suspect now, CRS. There are other loose ends they will undoubtedly bring up and tie into the mercury hypothesis (like the existence of autistics who were born before thimerosal was invented. That will be interesting to read).

There is at least one big reason why CRS was possibly not linked to autism before Stella Chase’s work in the 1970’s. Congenital Rubella Syndrome causes major disability. Severe to profound mental retardation. There are big spikes in the California Department of Developmental Services data for severe and profound mental retardation corresponding to the CRS outbreaks of the 1960s. Why bring this up? Because for the first two decades after Kanner’s original paper, many people considered intellectual disability (mental retardation) and autism to be completely separate.

From Infantile autism reviewed: a decade of research, a review article written in 1981:

One of the chief problems has been how to handle the questions of mental retardation and organic brain disease, issues especially troublesome with regard to infantile autism. When Kanner (1943) first described the diagnostic features, he also remarked that the condition bore no resemblance to any known neurological condition and implied that autistic children had a basically normal intelligence. For over two decades afterwards, diagnosticians generally believed that the presence of mental retardation or neurologic signs ruled out the diagnosis of infantile autism in the Kannerian sense, even if the child met all behavioral criteria (Eisenberg 1966). Thus diagnosis was frequently one dimensional; a child was labeled as afflicted with either infantile autism or mental retardation, not both.

Or, to put it another way, what many people today call “Kanner’s Autism”, with intellectual disability and/or apraxia, is not what Kanner and most of the people of his time thought of as autism.

But, data, as they say, there’s a funny thing about evidence. Real data is worth more than all these blogger discussions. The paper out today from Pediatrics included immune globulins in their analysis and showed that mercury exposure prenatally and in infancy and found that these exposures did not increase the risk of autism.

Then again, the funny thing about evidence is that it is repeatable. Two previous papers showed no link between immune globulins and autism:

Maternal Rh D status, anti-D immune globulin exposure during pregnancy, and risk of autism spectrum disorders


Lack of association between Rh status, Rh immune globulin in pregnancy and autism.

So, if I am correct and “Age of Autism” the book claims immune globulins *are* a cause of autism, what can we say? We can say that the funny thing about evidence is that some people are not swayed by it. Some people will continue to push the mercury hypothesis forever.

Thimerosal in vaccines did not cause an autism epidemic

13 Sep

There have been two main theories linking vaccines to an “epidemic” of autism. Both theories have been studied. Both have been heard in the courts. Neither theory had a sound scientific basis and epidemiological data has shown that neither theories explained the increase in autism prevalence in the last 20 years.

First it was proposed that the MMR vaccine resulted in persistent measles infections that lodged in the intestines of children leading to “leaky guts” and that harmful substances were leaked into the blood, traveled to the brain and resulted in autism symptoms. This was proposed by Dr. Andrew Wakefield and has since been shown in epidemiological and other studies to be unsound. (This theory morphed for the Omnibus Autism Proceeding, the vaccine court. The argument there was that the measles virus itself traveled to the brain. Again, it is not supported by epidemiological data and is not scientifically sound).

The second theory was that mercury in vaccines from a compound called thimerosal caused autism. In that theory, it was proposed that autism symptoms were similar to mercury poisoning (autism was a “novel” form of mercury poisoning). This theory was not scientifically sound as autism symptoms are not like mercury poisoning. Previous epidemiological studies have also shown thimerosal was not behind the rising numbers of people diagnosed with autism.

In 2007 there was a study which looked at 1,000 kids aged 7-10 to see if various neurological symptoms were more prevalent in those who received higher exposures to thimerosal. Orac at Respectful Insolence blogged it and Kev posted that piece here on LeftBrainRightBrain as well. That study showed indications that in some measures children may perform more poorly with thimerosal exposure. It also showed that in some measures children may perform better with thimerosal exposure. This mixed result is (a) not very strong in either direction and (b) not very surprising when you look at a lot of different measures at the same time. Chance will result in some measures positive, some negative.

The 2007 study was published in the New England Journal of Medicine as Early Thimerosal Exposure and Neuropsychological Outcomes at 7 to 10 Years, by Thompson, et al.. (Thompson (2007))

What was missing in that report was a direct study of autism. Given the numbers of children (1,047) selected, there would only be about 10 kids with ASD expected in the group. This is too few for a strong conclusion on autism. At the time of that study it was noted that another study would follow concentrating on autism alone.

That study has just been published in the journal Pediatrics as Prenatal and Infant Exposure to Thimerosal From Vaccines and Immunoglobulins and Risk of Autism. They studied “256 children with ASD and 752 controls matched by birth year, gender, and [managed care organizations]”. I will give some details here. I expect the treatment on the Science Based Medicine and Steven Novela’s Neurologica blogs to cover the science thoroughly should you wish more detail.

Short answer: thimerosal exposure doesn’t cause an increased risk of autism. Neither thimerosal from vaccines given to the children nor thimerosal from products like Rhogam are behind the increase in autism prevalence we have seen.

It is worth noting that the authors looked at autism with and without regression.

Here is the abstract:

OBJECTIVE: Exposure to thimerosal, a mercury-containing preservative that is used in vaccines and immunoglobulin preparations, has been hypothesized to be associated with increased risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This study was designed to examine relationships between prenatal and infant ethylmercury exposure from thimerosal containing vaccines and/or immunoglobulin preparations and ASD and 2 ASD subcategories: autistic disorder (AD) and ASD with regression.

METHODS: A case-control study was conducted in 3 managed care organizations (MCOs) of 256 children with ASD and 752 controls matched by birth year, gender, and MCO. ASD diagnoses were validated through standardized in-person evaluations. Exposure to thimerosal in vaccines and immunoglobulin preparations was determined from electronic immunization registries, medical charts, and parent interviews. Information on potential confounding factors was obtained from the interviews and medical charts. We used conditional logistic regression to assess associations between ASD, AD, and ASD with regression and exposure to ethylmercury during prenatal, birth-to-1 month, birthto-7-month, and birth-to-20-month periods.

RESULTS: There were no findings of increased risk for any of the 3 ASD outcomes. The adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for ASD associated with a 2-SD increase in ethylmercury exposure were 1.12 (0.83–1.51) for prenatal exposure, 0.88 (0.62–1.26) for exposure from birth to 1 month, 0.60 (0.36–0.99) for exposure from birth to 7 months, and 0.60 (0.32– 0.97) for exposure from birth to 20 months.

CONCLUSIONS: In our study of MCO members, prenatal and early-life exposure to ethylmercury from thimerosal-containing vaccines and immunoglobulin preparations was not related to increased risk ASDs. Pediatrics 2010;126:656–664

My guess is that there will be much discussion of the methods on many websites. For now, here are the data from Table 2 and Table 3.

Table 2 (click to enlarge)

Table 3 (click to enlarge)

As with Thompson (2007) the authors will make longer reports available on their website and will allow access to the data.

This study is not the first of its kind. Here are a few of the large studies which have shown a lack of association between thimerosal exposure and autism in the past.

Thimerosal and the Occurrence of Autism: Negative Ecological Evidence From Danish Population-Based Data

Safety of Thimerosal-Containing Vaccines: A Two-Phased Study of Computerized Health Maintenance Organization Database

Thimerosal Exposure in Infants and Developmental Disorders: A Prospective Cohort Study in the United Kingdom Does Not Support a Causal Association

Autism and Thimerosal-Containing Vaccines Lack of Consistent Evidence for an Association

There are more.

One question is whether this will finally quiet those claiming an autism epidemic caused by mercury in vaccines. Unfortunately, I sincerely doubt it. This study included Sallie Bernard of SafeMinds in the acknowledgments. Ms. Bernard was also involved in the Thompson study of 2007. At that time she was listed as a “dissenting” member of the team. She submitted a letter to the NEJM discussing the reasons for her dissention, Perhaps the lack of the word “dissenting” this time is a good sign. I’ll wait and see.

The main question is how much impact this will have on the next generation of families with autistic children. I can’t but wonder that the age of the mercury hypothesis has seen its peak. Not only in research but in general acceptance.

Sharyl Attkisson blogs the Hannah Poling settlement

10 Sep

I had forgotten Sharyl Attkisson. She is a reporter for CBS news who has covered vaccines in the past, but has been silent on the issue for the past year or more.

Her recent piece shows exactly the sort of reporting that frustrated me in the past: Family to Receive $1.5M in First-Ever Vaccine-Autism Court Award

In that piece she links to her piece from 2008 on the Hannah Poling case: Vaccine Case: An Exception Or A Precedent?

Here’s a quote from that earlier piece:

While the Poling case is the first of its kind to become public, a CBS News investigation uncovered at least nine other cases as far back as 1990, where records show the court ordered the government compensated families whose children developed autism or autistic-like symptoms in children including toddlers who had been called “very smart” and “impressed” doctors with their “intelligence and curiosity” … until their vaccinations.

They were children just like Hannah Poling.

What’s still being debated is whether the Poling case is an exception … or a precedent.

So, which is it? Were there children “just like Hannah Poling” or is this the “First-Ever Vaccine-Autism Court Award”?

Actually, it is neither. This isn’t the first vaccine court award involving autism, and the other cases are not “just like Hannah Poling”.

For real information on the other nine cases, read Kathleen Seidel’s piece on Neurodiversity.com. Few, professional or amateur, can compare the the thoroughness of Kathleen Seidel. For example, one case (the first I read involving autism from the vaccine court) is Suel v. HHS. Young David Suel had tuberous sclerosis, a condition known to be associated with autism and epilepsy. Epilepsy occurs in about 60 to 90% of individuals with TS. Autism occurs in about 25-50%. David Suel’s case was declared to be a “table injury” wherein the seizures began within a set period after his DPT vaccination. What is notable about that is the table for DPT was later changed–when it was shown that DPT was not responsible for inducing seizure disorders. In other words, had David Suel been vaccinated, or just filed, after the change in the table, he likely would not have been awarded damages.

“They were children just like Hannah Poling”? Is tuberous sclerosis just like mitochondrial disease? (answer: not even close).

Shall we go on? In her recent piece, Ms. Attkisson states:

In 2002, Hannah’s parents filed an autism claim in federal vaccine court. Five years later, the government settled the case before trial and had it sealed

Not accurate. The court did not “settle” the case in 2007. They conceded the case, and they were in the process of completing the settlement when someone leaked the information to the press. The government did not “seal” the case–it is standard procedure to keep this information confidential until the settlement is completed.

But that doesn’t make a good story, does it?

Ms. Attkisson goes on:

In acknowledging Hannah’s injuries, the government said vaccines aggravated an unknown mitochondrial disorder Hannah had which didn’t “cause” her autism, but “resulted” in it. It’s unknown how many other children have similar undiagnosed mitochondrial disorder. All other autism “test cases” have been defeated at trial. Approximately 4,800 are awaiting disposition in federal vaccine court.

Mito-autism was a big thing for a while there. David Kirby took the story and ran with it–making a lot of mistakes along the way and propagating a lot of misinformation. It is unknown how many other children have similar disorders–but the researchers who studied cases like Hannah Poling have stated that cases such as hers are “rare”.

“All other autism “test cases” have been defeated at trial”.

What is conspicuous about the other “test cases” is that in none of them was it argued that the children were like Hannah Poling–i.e. the attorneys did not argue that a mechanism of autism through mitochondrial dysfunction aggravated by vaccines existed. In fact, one child named as a test case was pulled from that slot in order to argue that mitochondrial based case. The expert report filed for that child (since pulled from the Omnibus website) did not argue mitochondrial disorder or dysfunction at that time. In other words, the idea of a mitochondrial disorder being linked to autism was so alien from the cases being made by the attorneys for the families in the Omnibus that this child had to argue the case separately.

It is often pointed out that many autistics may have mitochondrial dysfunction. This is based largely on studies out of Portugal. It is left implied, and it is often believed that mitochondrial dysfunction means vaccine injury in these cases. This was the impression that David Kirby put forth and it was clearly wrong. First, mitochondrial disorders are a very broad spectrum. The type that Hannah Poling has is not the same as those detected in most autistics. Second, most reports of mitochondrial disorders and autism, including the Portugal studies, do not involve regression. Third, even amongst those children reported by the groups that identified Hannah Poling, regression was often idiopathic or followed fever clearly independent of vaccination.

I do not expect Ms. Attkisson to present the following (quality) information, so I will repeat it here:

Here are the answers to some questions posted to mitochondrial medicine experts and their answers:

When asked, to respond to the position: ‘‘I view the risk of vaccination in known metabolic disease patients to generally be outweighed by the risk of the infectious diseases being vaccinated against”

63.2% strongly agreed
31.1% agreed
0.9% disagreed
and 0.9% strongly disagreed.

Asked about the opinion that the risk of vaccination in metabolic disease was ‘‘greater than the risk of the infectious diseases being vaccinated against”

52.9% strongly disagreed
40% disagreed
3.5% agreed
and none strongly agreed

Review of the Introduction of Age of Autism – the book.

23 Aug

So begins the Olmsted/Blaxill upcoming book ‘Age of Autism’.

…instead of taking Kanner’s word for it, [we decided] to learn about these previously anonymous families ourselves. We took clues from his extensive case descriptions and started uncovering the identities of the original families. Time and again, we connected the occupations of the parents to plausible toxic exposures and especially to a new mercury compound first used in the 1930s as a disinfectant for seeds, a treatment for lumber, and a preservative in vaccines. Yes, the parents’ professions were clues— but not to their obsessions or their marriages or their parenting or their genetic oddities; instead, they pointed to a strikingly consistent pattern of familial exposures to the same toxic substance.

(emphasis authors, inserts mine)

This is the paragraph that sets the authors hypothesis out. When we look at it carefully, we can see exactly what its purpose is – its purpose is to fit a set of preconceived ideas that revolve around one central disproven hypothesis – that mercury in vaccines (thiomersal/thimerosal) causes autism.

I haven’t yet read the rest of the book but I’m pretty sure what I’m going to find. To talk about that now would just be conjecture however, so lets stick to what we have here.

According to Olmsted and Blaxill, syphilis treatment, hysteria, mental illness and a variety of modern illnesses are all caused by mercury. I’m very much looking forward to reading this section too. Olmsted & Blaxill use Pink disease (a definite form of mercury poisoning which looks nothing like autism to ‘justify’ the inclusion of these illnesses in the Introduction.

Blaxill and Omsted detail how they went on to meet “Donald T.” one of Kanner’s original cases:

By any mea sure, he has fared astonishingly well. President of his college fraternity and later the Forest Kiwanis Club, a pillar of his Presbyterian church, he had a long career at the local bank, plays a competitive game of golf, and regularly travels the world. We learned how “Donald T.” went from being the first unmistakable case of autism to the first unmistakable case of recovery.

So on one hand we have the doom and gloom of Pink disease (a foreshadow of autism according to Blaxill & Olmsted) which killed hundreds and then actual autism which doesn’t seem that bad. I’ll be very interested to see how Blaxill & Olmsted narrate Donald T.’s ‘recovery’…or could it have been that Donald T. was in fact one of the first cases of autism who also either moved ‘off the spectrum’ (as a certain percentage of autistic people do) or…y’know…he simply progressed as he got older. My guess is that Blaxill & Olmsted will reveal that Donald T. had some kind of miraculous exposure to a chelating agent or multi vitamins or some form of extreme biomed. Lets see.

The whole Introduction is about 6,000 words long. I can’t possibly attempt to review the whole thing and I won’t attempt to review the whole book either. These are the sections of the Intro that caught my eye particularly. Maybe others who have access to the Intro will tackle more. One thing you can be sure of, LBRB will be here to catch and expose the errors.

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