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UK Autism Postcode Lottery

5 Apr

Nick Hornby is in the Telegraph today talking about the so-called ‘postcode lottery’. He talks of how it existed when his son was diagnosed, it definitely existed when my child was diagnosed and from my experiences talking to new autism parents it still exists today.

For those unfamiliar with the phrase it literally means that depending on where you live you may get good/bad/awful/no services. This is, as Hornby states, a national scandal. I’m aware of a location a couple of postcodes away from me in Stoke-on-Trent where the local health authority even go so far as to dissuade GP’s from making referrals to local CDC’s (Child Development Centers). Stoke has a reputation within the UK as being one of the worst, most violent and poor areas in the UK and I guess the local authorities see their financial priorities as being elsewhere.

Just to illustrate that, here’s a comparison of the West Midlands region of the UK according to NAS. Stoke – a large city – gets 27 known resources. Birmingham, also a large city less than 50 miles away gets 109.

And when we drill down deeper we find that Stoke has just one resource for assessment/diagnosis, compared to Birmingham that has four. No surprise autistic people and their families in Stoke struggle.

This is a crazy situation – how are we ever supposed to get a firm fix on prevalence and/or incidence of autism aside from anything else? Something needs to change in the UK and soon.

McCarthygeddon begins

1 Apr

Only yesterday Orac warned people of the upcoming wave of stupid about to break over us all. His only mistake in my view was confining it to the US.

Well today the wave breaks. In an interview with Time described by that publication as:

McCarthy and TIME science editor Jeffrey Kluger sparred over the causes of autism and the safety of vaccines…

Ihave to say that if this is sparring then I hope Mr Kluger decided against boxing as a sporting hobby. He all but rolls over and allows McCarthy to tickle his belly.

Theres a bellyfull of the usual facepalm inducing idiocy of course but also chilling warning about how far these antivaxxers are prepared to go:

I do believe sadly it’s going to take some diseases coming back to realize that we need to change and develop vaccines that are safe. If the vaccine companies are not listening to us, it’s their f—ing fault that the diseases are coming back. They’re making a product that’s s—. If you give us a safe vaccine, we’ll use it. It shouldn’t be polio versus autism.

Thats right, Jenny is quite prepared to go for a Polio epidemic in the name of her unscientific cause. And who’s fault will it be? Why the people who make the vaccine that helps prevent Polio of course! And why? Because Google Phd McCarthy – the woman who used to think she was an Indigo and her son a Crystal Child in communication with an alien – believes that vaccines cause autism. Of course the lack of any reputable scientific evidence tends to indicate she might just be in error but y’know why let a little thing like accuracy get in the way of a body count?

Time out Jenny, you’re getting scarier and scarier.

The vaccine debate has a real cost

31 Mar

Of course, this isn’t news. But usually the cost is characterized in the danger to public health.

What about the cost to people with autism? Here’s a blog post from the Simons Foundation. (as an aside–there is a real autism organization). They are quoting Cathy Lord and Paul Shattuck.

Given the diversity of the panel’s members, the strategic plan was, unsurprisingly enough, hotly debated, and continues to be scrutinized.

Most of the debate centers around the plan’s emphasis on environmental risk factors. Lord says this came at the cost of research on more worthwhile topics, such as how to expand treatment services to low-income families — a project for which she was hoping to be funded.

“It’s gone, just gone. I was pretty astonished to see that that had disappeared,” she says.

The report also doesn’t emphasize studying autism’s course beyond childhood, notes Shattuck. “The amount of money that goes into understanding services and aging and supporting people in their daily lives seems disproportionately small,” he says.

One of the problems with the vaccines-cause-autism groups is that they really don’t advocate for people with autism. They have abandoned entirely people of low income and minorities (except where they can be used for political gain).

It isn’t just that groups like SafeMinds, Generation Rescue and the rest can’t be bothered to spend the time worrying about minorities or adults. It’s the fact that the data those groups use to support the “epidemic” makes ZERO sense when you consider minorities.

Consider this: the “rate” of autism is 0.3 per 1,000 for Hispanics in Wisconsin, but 10.6 for Whites in New Jersey.

Why isn’t Generation Rescue calling for an investigating the Hispanics of Wisconsin? Shouldn’t they want to know what is “protecting” that subgroup from autism?

They don’t care, they don’t want to bring attention to the Hispanics in Wisconsin (or the under represented minorities across the nation), because it blows a big hole in the “epidemic”. Obviously we still aren’t counting all the people with autism in our prevalence estimates. How can we rely on the historical data that shows an “epidemic” if we aren’t doing a good job even now?

We’ve covered this many times in the past. It is one thing when the damage caused is more abstract. But when it become very real, when minorities are being left out in the cold, it is an outrage.

Hours and hours were spent in the IACC meetings wordsmithing the vaccine language. To groups like SafeMinds and people like Lyn Redwood, the Strategic Plan was a political document. It was a statement by the government, and it was critical to get as much “admission” of autism being caused by vaccines as was possible. So what if another generation of minorities gets mislabeled with Intellectual Disability or some other Special Education category when SafeMinds was able to get the IACC to admit that many parents think vaccines cause autism?

This is what happens when psuedo “Vaccine-injury” advocates pretend to be Autism advocates and take seats at the table. Lyn Redwood put her own interests and those of her organizations ahead of the well being of people with autism.

That’s just plain wrong.

Features of autism

29 Mar

I was planning on writing something about this for the 1 year anniversary of when the Department of Justice concession to Hannah Poling was leaked.

Why wait until now? Because it was basically impossible to discuss this last year. Immediately after the leak, the phrase “features of autism” was made into a running joke. The vaccines-cause-autism people all made great fun of how the government coined the phrase, presumably to avoid using the simple word, autism.

Anyone want to go back and look at the document now? Search for the word “features”.

First hit:

Dr. Zimmerman observed that [Hannah Poling] watched the fluorescent lights repeatedly during the examination and would not make eye contact. Id. He diagnosed [Hannah Poling] with “regressive encephalopathy with features consistent with an autistic spectrum disorder, following normal development.”

Note that that’s in quotes: “features consistent with an autistic spectrum disorder”. That’s right, Andrew Zimmerman, Hannah Poling’s own neurologist used the phrase “features of autism” about her, long before the Department of Justice ever did.

This is the same Andrew Zimmerman who submitted an expert report on Hannah Poling. This is the same Andrew Zimmerman who wrote an expert report, for the government side, in the Autism Omnibus Proceeding.

Not the only place “features” is mentioned in the Rule 4(c) report, either:

Second Hit:

[Hannah Poling] was evaluated by Alice Kau and Kelley Duff, on May 16, 2001, at CARDS. Pet. Ex. 25 at 17. The clinicians concluded that [Hannah Poling] was developmentally delayed and demonstrated features of autistic disorder.

So, why is it surprising that the Department of Justice would write:

In sum, DVIC has concluded that the facts of this case meet the statutory criteria for demonstrating that the vaccinations [Hannah Poling] received on July 19, 2000, significantly aggravated an underlying mitochondrial disorder, which predisposed her to deficits in cellular energy metabolism, and manifested as a regressive encephalopathy with features of autism spectrum disorder.

That’s the third place that “features” is used in the concession document. But, hey, it isn’t funny to talk about Hannah Poling’s own specialists describing her as having “features” of an autistic spectrum disorder.

It is very easy to make more out of this than is warranted by the scant information we have available. We don’t know what is in the rest of the documents that were provided as part of the case. What we do know is that the U.S. government did not create the phrase “features of autism” to describe Hannah Poling.

Growing up fast

27 Mar

I wrote a few days ago about autism, murder, crime and morality. The conclusion I reached was that based on the studies I read, criminality was uncommon among autistic people compared to non-autistic controls. Morality was also present in all degrees of autistic severity.

In a disturbing and frightening post at Salon yesterday Ann Bauer told the world about the reality she faces with her autistic son Andrew.

She used to be someone who according to herself:

…thought of his autism as beautiful and mysterious.

And now she feels that:

[I must]…break the silence about autism’s darker side. We cannot solve this problem by hiding it, the way handicapped children themselves used to be tucked away in cellars. In order to help the young men who endure this rage, someone has to be willing to tell the truth.

I agree that people should tell the truth. But the truth is not how one feels at one point in time. The truth is separate from onesself and endures after you are gone.

Why is it so difficult for people to see more than one side of any equation? Autism _is_ a difference. It is also a disability and to some a disorder.

By the same token autistic people can be violent. They can also be joyous. Is the joy a product of their autism? Is the violence? Or could it be that people are different the world over regardless of their neurology?

I think Ann Bauer should definitely talk about her son. But I hope she doesn’t see her son as ‘the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth’. Because the truth is also Temple Grandin who doesn’t live in a cage. The truth is also Katie McCarron cruelly murdered by an NT mother. The truth is also Sky Steuernagel, Amanda Baggs, Alex Bain, Conor Doherty, Megan Leitch etc etc.

What I’m saying is that the truth about autism is not one persons agenda but a reality that autistic people experience every day. Most of these people are nice and a minority aren’t. Some commit crime. The same is true of bipolar people, gay people, NT people, chinese people etc etc.

My own autistic child turned 9 in Feb. Xe is in the 99th percentile for her age/height and is also well built too. Xe sometimes headbutts, pinches and hits and we struggle to tackle why this is and how we can help. The local education authority are no help. The best they can offer is one session of speech therapy every 3 months. So we taught ourselves and we improvise a lot too. But xe is still my child and I wouldn’t swap xyr for the world. Xyr autism is part of that. I don’t think xe would be who xe is without being autistic.

So because xe has issues should we expect xyr to be violently out of control as xe grows older? I don’t see why. Might xe occasionaly be violent when we fail to understand xyr? Possibly.

But everyones different. I don’t want people having false negative expections of my child because xe shares a diagnosis with someone who is violent.

Pardo letter on neuroinflamation

26 Mar

Neuroinflamation was a big subject in the Autism Omnibus. This was especially true in the “second theory of causation” hearings, which concentrated on thimerosal containing vaccines as a possible causative factor in autism.

Here’s a page from Dr. Aposhian’s presentation at the Omnibus (click to enlarge), which shows the basic logic flow.

aposhianslide76

Or, to put it simply–thimerosal gets changed to ethyl mercury which deposits mercury ions in the brain, causing neuroinflamation which causes autism.

Yes, there are a lot of of missing steps in order to prove this idea.   But, for now, let’s just think about neuroinflamation.  The term (neuroinflamation), as Dr. Aposhian makes clear in his report and slides, is somewhat new, having been coined in the 1990’s. Dr. Aposhian and others spent a lot of time discussing neuroinflamation, astrocytes and glial cells.

The research on neuroinflamation in regards to autism comes mainly from researchers at Johns Hopkins. In particular, Dr. Aposhian cites (on slide 79 of his presentation) the Vargas paper, pulling a quote:

Vargas et al., Neuroglialactivation and neuroinflammation in the brain of patients with autism. Ann Neurol57, 67-81, 2005,

“Our findings indicate that innate neuroimmunereactions play a pathogenic role in an undefined proportion of autistic patients…”

It is important to note that one of the authors on that paper was Dr. Andrew Zimmerman, whose expert report Kev recently blogged. That’s right, Dr. Zimmerman prepared an expert report for the government. The anchor author on the Vargas paper was Dr. Carlos Pardo.

It turns out that a letter from Dr. Pardo is included in the Omnibus docket as well. Here’s the introduction paragraph from Dr. Pardo’s letter:

As per our conversation last year, I would like to clarify some of the concepts regarding the role of neuroimmune response in the brain of patients with autism and the potential significance of such findings in the pathogenesis and pathobiology of the disorder.

Good–he’s trying to clarify some points of his paper. Just the sort of letter we want to read. It is rather thick on the science. Let me cherry pick one sentence, if I may:

These findings are inconsistent with the hypothesis of a potential toxic effect on astrocytes by neurotoxins or toxic material.

It strikes me that the families with claims in the vaccine court are in a really difficult position. Their lawyers and experts are arguing the thimerosal causation issue largely on the idea of neuroinflamation. The problem being that the key people in neuroinflamation and autism are experts for the other side.

The thimerosal cases depend on neuroinflamation. Does anyone else see this as a really tough battle to fight, given that the few world experts on the subject disagree with the contention that neuroinflamation in autistic brains is due to neurotoxins?

Is there an autism epidemic – the latest science

25 Mar

A new paper from Eric Fombonne is in electronic print at the journal Pediatric Research. It will apparently be published in the paper version of the journal some time after April.

The title is ‘Epidemiology of pervasive developmental disorders’ and as the name suggests, Fombonne looks at all the available quality epidemiology he can find relating to PDD’s.

This article reviews the results of 43 studies published since 1966 that provided estimates for the prevalence of Pervasive Developmental Disorders, including Autistic Disorder, Asperger Disorder, Pervasive Developmental Disorder Not Otherwise Specified, and Childhood Disintegrative Disorder.

Combining all these categories together Fombonne presents a prevalence of 60-70/10,000.

For autistic disorder, Fombonne says:

The correlation between prevalence and year of publication was statistically significant and studies with prevalence
over 7/10,000 were all published since 1987. These findings point towards an increase in prevalence estimates in the last 15-20 years.

For PDD-NOS, Fombonne explains that it is next to impossible to get accurate prevalence rates as:

This group has been much less studied in previous epidemiological studies…

Again, for Aspergers, Fombonne says that AS specific epidemiological studies are sparse but, in something of a surprise:

By contrast, other recent autism surveys have consistently identified smaller numbers of children with AS than those with autism within the same survey. In 9 out of 10 such surveys, the ratio of autism to AS prevalence in each survey was above unity, suggesting that the prevalence of AS was consistently lower than that for autism. How much lower is difficult to establish from existing data, but a ratio of 3 or 4 to 1 would appear an acceptable, albeit conservative, conclusion based on this limited available evidence. This translates into a prevalence proportion for AS which would be ? to ¼ that of autism. We therefore used for subsequent calculations an estimate of 6/10,000 for AS, recognizing the strong limitations of available data on AS.

Lastly, for CDD:

Eight studies provided data on childhood disintegrative disorder (CDD). Prevalence estimates ranged from 0 to 9.2/100,000. The pooled estimate based on eight identified cases and a total surveyed population of 406,660 children, was 2.0/100,000. The upper-bound limit of the associated confidence interval (4.0/100,000) indicates that CDD is a very rare condition, with about 1 case to occur for every 103 cases of autistic disorder.

Fombonne then tackles the question everyone wants an answer to – is there an autism epidemic?

In order to answer this accurately, he explains that there has to be tight control over incidence estimates (the number of new cases occurring in a population over a period of time) and prevalence (the proportion of individuals in a population who suffer from a defined disorder). Failure to control these gives false results. Bearing this in mind, Fombonne goes through the five approaches taken so far to try and determine if theres an autism epidemic or not.

1) Referral Statistics.
Trends in time for referral statistics are not reliable. They fail to control for things such as referral patterns, availability of services, heightened public awareness, decreasing age at diagnosis and changes over time in diagnostic concepts and practices. An example of the issues from referral statistics is:

Strong evidence of “diagnostic switching” was produced in California and in all US states indicating that a relatively high proportion of children previously diagnosed as having mental retardation were now identified as having a PDD diagnosis. Decreased age at diagnosis has also been shown to contribute to the rising numbers of children diagnosed with PDD. In the UK, Jick and Kaye (62) have shown that the incidence of specific developmental disorders (including language disorders) decreased by about the same amount that the incidence of diagnoses of autism increased in boys born from 1990-1997. A more recent UK study has shown that up to 66% of adults previously diagnosed with developmental language disorders would meet diagnostic criteria for a broad definition of PDD.

2) Comparison of cross-sectional epidemiological surveys
If I’m understanding his point here (and please correct me if I’m not) Fombonne is saying that too many epidemiological studies are uniquely designed – not enough attempt to replicate a previous study – and hence:

The most convincing evidence that method factors could account for most of the variability in published prevalence estimates comes from a direct comparison of 8 recent surveys conducted in the UK and the USA. In each country, 4 surveys were conducted around the same year and with similar age groups. As there is no reason to expect huge between-area differences in prevalence, prevalence estimates should therefore be comparable within each country. However, there was a six-fold variation in prevalence for UK surveys, and a fourteen-fold variation in US figures. In each set of studies, high estimates derived from surveys where intensive population-based screening techniques were employed whereas lower prevalence proportions were obtained from studies relying on passive administrative methods for case finding. Since no passage of time was involved, the magnitude of these gradients in prevalence can only be attributed to differences in case identification methods across surveys.

3) Repeat surveys in defined geographical areas
So this is the opposite of the above – these are studies where they are being replicated as closely as is possible. However, the issue here is that there are simply not _enough_ of these studies to form a definite conclusion. However, it may be worth noting that in the two studies Fombonne highlighted as being carried out in exactly the same way in exactly the same place to exactly the same age cohort – but just at two different times one showed no increase in prevalence whilst the other showed no increase at 4 sites and an increase at 2 sites.

4) Successive birth cohorts
This means in very large surveys with a wide age range, if the proportion of people who have autism rises this _could_ be a rise in incidence and therefore a good hint that there is an epidemic. I say _could_ as other possible causes need to be ruled out first.

…two large French surveys [used this method]. The surveys included birth cohorts from 1972 to 1985…, and, pooling the data of both surveys, age-specific prevalence showed no upward trend.

A US survey _did_ show an upward trend but:

…the increase was not specific to autism. These analyses also showed a marked period effect that identified the early 1990s as the period where the prevalence estimates started to go up in all ages and birth cohorts, coinciding closely with the inclusion of PDDs in the federal Individual with Disabilities Educational Act (IDEA) funding and reporting mechanism in the US.

5) Incidence studies
The few incidence studies did show incidence trends rising over short periods of time. As noted in point 4) above, this _could_ be attributed to an autism epidemic. However –

…none of these studies investigations could determine the impact of changes over time in diagnostic criteria, improved awareness and service availability on the upward trend.

Contrary to what people who _want_ there to be an autism epidemic, these are non trivial reasons. It stands to reason that if (for example) Birmingham, UK – the countrys second city, goes from having zero service availability and no means of diagnosis in 1960 to having numerous types of service availability both publicly and privately funded and a _lot_ of means of diagnosis in 2000 there will be a _lot_ more autistic people in Birmingham. A hell of a lot. When we then consider that the diagnosis criteria has widened massively than we go from a hell of a lot more autistic people to a _whole hell_ of a lot. If we _also_ consider that people who used to carry one kind of diagnosis are now being swapped to autism then we go from a whole hell of a lot to a descriptive term beyond my ability. This isn’t even science – its basic common sense. The only issue is – ‘a whole hell of a lot’ is not a very accurate measurement.

Fombonne closes by saying that – based on the available data – we still cannot really say one way or the other if there has been an autism epidemic. Remember when you read the quote below that its _incidence_ that gives us an epidemic.

Current evidence does not strongly support the hypothesis of a secular increase in the incidence of autism but power to
detect time trends is seriously limited in existing datasets. Whilst it is clear that prevalence estimates have gone up over time, this increase most likely represents changes in the concepts, definitions, service availability and awareness of autistic-spectrum disorders in both the lay and professional public. To assess whether or not the incidence has increased, method factors that account for an important proportion of the variability in prevalence must be tightly controlled. The possibility that a true change in the underlying incidence has contributed to higher prevalence figures remains, however, to be adequately tested.

Who is antivaccine?

25 Mar

The group that wants to bring the third world up to modern standards of vaccination or the group that wants to bring the US to current third world standards?

I’ve been trying to avoid responding to Age of Autism blog posts. I have a full time job, I don’t need another one. But, this one struck me as worth a few minutes.

Mr. Olmsted posted the blog piece, “WHO is Anti-Vaccine?” In it, he quotes a newspaper article that stated

“In the first nine months of life, the World Health Organization recommends vaccines for tuberculosis, diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, polio and measles.”

Mr. Olmsted then tries to draw a parallel between his own organization (Generation Rescue et al.) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Since both organizations recommend fewer vaccines than in the current US schedule, supposedly his group is mainstream.

Mr. Olmsted chafes at the reputation he has earned (and earn it he did) for not digging very deep into a story. He won his battle star, as it were, by missing out on a big part of the Amish story, the Clinic for Special Children. No doubt the revisionist history, complete with stories by angry Amish, will fill at least a chapter in his upcoming book.

Why bring this up? Because once again, Mr. Olmsted looked only far enough to support his preconceived ideas. The WHO campaign he is discussing is well covered on…well, the cryptically named World Health Organization website.

Page 15 of this presentation, gives a good idea of WHO’s goals: by 2015, introduce new vaccines. They discuss adding HepB, Hib and also:

Japanese Encephalitis
Yellow Fever
Rubella
Pneumo (Conjugate vaccines)
Rotavirus Diarrhoea
Typhoid Fever
HPV
Mening Conjugate A

Here is fact #2 in the WHO 10 facts about immunization. Would Mr. Olmsted and his organization agree?

Immunization currently saves between 2 and 3 million lives per year. It is one of the most successful and cost-effective public health interventions.

Mr. Olmsted: enter “autism” into the search box on the WHO website.

First hit MMR and autism.

Based on the extensive review presented, GACVS concluded that no evidence exists of a causal association between MMR vaccine and autism or autistic disorders.

Another of the top links–a page from the WHO Bulletin. The story? ‘Science vs ‘‘scaremongering’’ over measles-mumps-rubella vaccine’.

How about this link, also on the first page: “No vaccine for the scaremongers”. Here’s a nice quote from that article:

While parents in developing countries have, for example, first-hand experience of measles and welcome vaccination against it, the uptake by parents for the combined measles, mumps and rubella vaccine in many developed countries has yet to recover almost 10 years after a study linking it to autism, even though the original study has long since been discredited and there is overwhelming scientific evidence that refutes the link.

Frankly, I think Mr. Olmsted is squarely in the group the WHO would call “scaremongers”. It is ridiculous in the extreme for him to try to draw a parallel between him and his organizations and WHO.

Again I will ask, who is antivaccine, the group that wants to bring the third world up to modern standards of vaccination or the group that wants to bring the US to current third world standards?

Spiderman saves autistic boy

25 Mar

Gotta love a story like this.

I don’t like copying entire news stories, but by the time I cut and paste chunks of this one, I will have most of it anyway:

BANGKOK (AFP) – A Thai fireman turned superhero when he dressed up as comic-book character Spider-Man to coax a frightened eight-year-old from a balcony, police said Tuesday.

Teachers at a special needs school in Bangkok alerted authorities on Monday when an autistic pupil, scared of attending his first day at school, sat out on the third-floor ledge and refused to come inside, a police sergeant told AFP.

Despite teachers’ efforts to beckon the boy inside, he refused to budge until his mother mentioned her son’s love of superheroes, prompting fireman Sonchai Yoosabai to take a novel approach to the problem.

The rescuer dashed back to his fire station and made a quick change into a Spider-Man costume before returning to the boy, he said.

“I told him Spider-Man is here to rescue you, no monsters are going to attack you and I told him to walk slowly towards me as running could be dangerous,” Somchai told local television.

The young boy immediately stood up and walked into his rescuer’s arms, police said.

Somchai said he keeps the Spider-Man costume and an outfit of Japanese television character Ultraman at the station in order to liven up school fire drills.

Besides being cute and cool, this is a great story. The fireman responded to the unique needs of the kid in question.

Oldstone letter in the Omnibus docket

25 Mar

When I found that the Autism Omnibus Proceeding expert reports were public, the first one that caught my eye was by Andrew Zimmerman. Obviously, it caught Kev’s attention too 🙂

But, I have only a brief time available today, so I will start with this letter by Dr. Michael Oldstone. It is brief enough that I have copied the body in its entirety below.

To summarize, Rick Rollens asked Dr. Oldstone to consider collaborating with Dr. O’Leary and Dr. Wakefield on the Autism/MMR question. It was a good move on Mr. Rollens’ part, as Dr. Odlstone is one of the preeminent researchers in viral pathogenesis. Has been for decades.

Before agreeing to collaborate, Dr. Oldstone wanted to check on the quality of the results coming out of the O’Leary laboratory. Dr. Oldstone sent tissue samples to Dr. O’Leary’s laboratory, some with measles virus, some without. Dr. O’Leary tested them–and got the wrong answer 20% of the time. Dr. Oldstone sent another batch of samples, some duplicates from the first batch. Not only did Dr. O’Leary’s laboratory get 20% wrong again but, in Dr. Oldstone’s words:

Most troublesome, some samples, when tested twice under different code numbers ‘switched’ from positive to negative or from negative to positive. On this basis of inaccuracies of their PCR test, I declined from further working with either Drs. Wakefield or O’Leary.

This goes directly towards the question of the quality of the data coming from Dr. O’Leary’s laboratory. This is a big question. The Hornig study came out last year, an attempt to replicate Dr. Wakefield’s research. In one of the strangest moves I have ever seen by a researcher, Dr. Wakefield claimed that this study actually supported his research by demonstrating that Dr. O’Leary’s lab is capable of making accurate PCR measurements. Dr. Wakefield neglected the obvious point–being accurate today doesn’t mean one was accurate yesterday. He also neglected the suggestion (made by Dr. O’Leary himself at the press conference for the Hornig study) that Dr. Wakefield’s samples could have been contaminated.

Well, here is a good example that Dr. O’Leary’s laboratory was not making accurate measurements. This was iin the “early 2000’s”. Note that the Uhlman paper (Dr. Wakefield’s team’s paper supposedly finding measles virus in gut tissue) came out in 2002–the same time period.

Below is the letter, dated Oct. 12, 2007, from Dr. Oldstone to Dr. Brian Ward.

Dear Dr. Ward:

I recently became aware that my work in the field of viral persistence is being quoted in support of the hypothesis that the measles virus component of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine is supposedly associated with the development of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD).

Measles virus has been a focus of my laboratory for many years so this autismlmeasles link has been of interest to me. Further, I should state up front that I see at present no evidence whatsoever for such a link.

In the early 2000s I was asked by Rick Rollens to consider a collaborative grant between my laboratory and that of Drs. Wakefield and O’Leary. Prior to making a decision, I decided to assess the performance of Dr. O’Leary’s PCR-based assays targeting measles virus. My laboratory generated samples from tissue culture cells infected with MV as well as tissue samples from our transgenic mouse model of MV infection (including gut and brain tissues), which were coded and sent to the O’Leary laboratory. Samples had varying titers of measles virus as well as appropriate negative control and measles virus positive samples. The arrangement was informal in that the samples were only sent to Dr. O’Leary for testing. After receiving Dr. O’Leary’s results, the code was broken and I discovered that approximately 20% of the samples were incorrect as to the
presence or absence of measles virus. I reviewed the results with Dr. O’Leary as well as his protocols for preparing his assay, which I found to be sound and decided that perhaps there may have been some unknown error and a second set of samples should be sent. This second set was again coded anew and contained both new samples and several original samples. The results of the second round were no better with again approximately 20% of the samples misidentified by Dr. O’Leary’s laboratory. Most troublesome, some samples, when tested twice under different code numbers ‘switched’ from positive to negative or from negative to positive. On this basis of inaccuracies of their PCR test, I declined from further working with either Drs. Wakefield or O’Leary.

Sincerely,
Michael B.A. Oldstone, M.D.
Head, Viral-lmmunobiology Laboratory

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