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New mercury/autism paper to misrepresent

22 Feb

A new study on autism and mercury has been published:

Autism is a highly heritable disorder, however, there is mounting evidence to suggest that toxicant-induced oxidative stress may play a role. The focus of this article will be to review our animal model of autism and discuss our evidence that oxidative stress may be a common underlying mechanism of neurodevelopmental damage. We have shown that mice exposed to either methylmercury (MeHg) or valproic acid (VPA) in early postnatal life display aberrant social, cognitive and motor behavior.

Some people have reported on this study thusly:

New Study Implicates Mercury In The Development Of Autism

Um, right.

These same people, well known for their anti-vaccine beliefs, fail to note anywhere that this study says:

…., it is important to note that autism was not found to be associated with either pre- or neonatal exposure to organic mercury.

One form of organic mercury being, of course, thiomersal.

Might it be very uncharitable of me to suggest that this was a deliberate obfuscation? I guess it might but I still think it was. Especially when this same person says:

….will they all continue to proffer the lie that there is no convincing evidence linking vaccines to autism, while ignoring all the studies that are piling up on the hard drives of parents across the country?

Hmmm, so this study quite categorically states there is no link between organic mercury and autism and yet this person calls others liars? Projection is a terrible thing.

There will be more to say on the quality of this study – especially its references – but I wanted to get this clear as soon as possible.

Wakefield, Baird, Archives

20 Feb

This is a Guest Blogged post, written by an author with a keen interest in Wakefield related issues. My gratitude to Nigel for writing the post which follows.

Wakefield and his colleagues were fast off the mark (http://www.thoughtfulhouse.org/pr/020608.htm) to criticise the study by Baird et al which recently appeared in Archives of Disease in Childhood. This was a well conducted study which failed to detect measles virus (MV) or elevated measles antibodies in the blood of autistic children. There is a general feeling that even if the almighty Jehovah himself, collaborating with the top researchers at the Universities of Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and Yale, and with an advisory board of all recent Nobel laureates in medicine, produced a negative study on measles virus in autistic children, Wakefield would still find flaws in the work; remarkably rich from the single largest purveyor of junk science in the last 20 years.

As a criticism of the study Wakefield states “It is a major error to have presumed that peripheral blood mononuclear cells are a valid ‘proxy’ for gut mucosal lymphoid tissues when searching for persistent viral genetic material” and later states “ We are increasingly persuaded that measuring things in blood many years down the line tells us very little about the initiating events in what is, in effect, a static (non-progressive) encephalopathy unlike, for example, subacute sclerosing panencephalitis, which is a progressive measles encephalopathy” .

The hypocrisy of this statement is quite breathtaking, but unsurprising from someone whose relationship with scientific honesty and integrity is somewhat elastic. For those who don’t have long memories, the first “alleged “ evidence of MV in autism came from Wakefiled’s collaboration with Kawashima where using standard methodologies which were highly effective at detecting MV laboratory contaminants, Wakefield claimed that blood cells from 3/9 autistic children gave positive results ( Dig Dis Sci 2000 45:723-9). This paper formed a key part of the UK MMR litigation from 2000-2003 driven by Wakefield himself until it was mysteriously dropped from the final claimants witness reports by Wakefield himself. Perhaps the realization that blood is a poor proxy for gut came to him in 2003, or more likely, that he knew the Kawashima data were junk and would not stand up in court.

Even more staggeringly, the vast majority of samples from autistic tested for MV by O’Leary in the Unigenetics lab in Dublin were from blood; including the now infamous blood samples taken from healthy children at Wakefield’s own child’s birthday party. Steve Bustin in his testimony on the US Cedillo case comprehensively shredded all of the work that came out of that lab. All of this data on blood has never appeared in the public domain although the junk science on MV in the gut did appear in the Uhlmann paper, in a low impact factor journal which promptly rolled over and died.

As always however, you cannot believe anything Wakefield says as being scientifically valid. In the blood there are cells which are representative of the gut lymphoid tissue. This is very well established and non-controversial. When T and B cells are activated in the gut associated lymphoid tissue, they acquire the alpha4beta 7 integrin and migrate via the mesenteric lymph nodes, and the thoracic duct into the circulating blood and then home back into the rest of the gut using the mucosal addressin, MAdCAM-1.. This happens in all healthy people constantly and it is possible to identify these gut-homing cells in blood. Since Wakefield claims that MV persists in the allegedly large lymph nodes in the gut wall, cells should be infected with MV at source and carry the virus with them into the blood. So come on Andy, with O’Leary’s supersensitive PCR, you should be able to detect at least some of these cells migrating to the gut via the blood. After all, the PCR is so sensitive it can detect MV in samples of distilled water, now that is really amazing!

I suppose one should always rejoice in the repentance of a sinner, and if Wakefield has now come to the conclusion that blood is not a proxy for gut lymphoid tissue, we should be happy he is now happy to recant on all his previous claims about blood cells being positive for MV in autism. I have a sneaky feeling however that this is just another “wriggle” to keep the show on the road. If one of his acolytes claims to find MV in blood of autistic children, you can bet that blood will once again become a valid proxy for gut lymphoid tissue.

AAP needs help of rational parents

18 Feb

As part of the welcome addressing of the needs and concerns of the real autism and autistic community in regards to science and as part of their efforts to address the pseudo-science and quackery of the anti-vaccine agenda of certain autism related groups, the AAP are looking for rational parents to help them. I will certainly be offering my details should they be of service and I would urge any parent of an autistic child who is sick of hearing the unscientific and self serving agenda of such groups – groups who not only belittle autistic people but also gladly and readily place the health and well being of others at risk for absolutely no purpose to contact the AAP to offer their details also.

If you wish me to pass on your details, please either leave your name and email address in the comment section of this post, or email them to me or you can email the author of the AAP letter reproduced below.

Hello,

As part of our ongoing response to media stories regarding autism and vaccines, the AAP communications department is compiling a list of parents who support the AAP and are available for interviews. We are looking for two types of parents who could serve as spokespersons:

Parents of children with autism spectrum disorders who support immunization and who do not believe there is any link between their child’s vaccines and his or her autism.

Parents of children who suffered a vaccine-preventable illness. This could be a parent who declined immunization, whose child became ill before a vaccine was available, or whose child was ineligible for immunization.

We are asking for your help identifying parents who would be good spokespersons. They do not need to be expert public speakers. They just need to be open with their story and interested in speaking out on the issue. We will contact candidates in advance to conduct pre-interviews, to offer guidance on talking to reporters and to obtain a signed waiver giving us permission to release their name.

If a parent were placed on our list, we would offer their name and contact information to select media. We hope to build a list of parents from a wide range of geographical areas.

As the Jenny McCarthy and “Eli Stone” stories illustrate, this issue is likely to recur in the national and local media. The AAP is committed to doing all we can to counter such erroneous reports with factual information supported by scientific evidence and AAP recommendations.

The anti-vaccine groups often have emotional family stories on their side. The ability to offer a reporter an interview with a similarly compelling parent who is sympathetic to the AAP’s goals is a powerful tool for our media relations program.

Please contact me if you have any questions or to suggest a parent to interview.

Thank you,

Susan Stevens Martin
Director, Division of Media Relations
American Academy of Pediatrics

Lets take the example of just one worldwide disease that is vaccine preventable. Measles. In Jan 2007 The Guardian reported:

Between 1999 and 2005, there was a 60% reduction in annual measles deaths worldwide, from 873,000 to 345,000….

Fantastic news. But let that figure of 345,000 stay in your mind. That was how many people died all over the world from measles in 2005.

What do the countries most affected by measles think?

Urbain Olanguena Awono, Cameroon’s public health minister, described the fall in deaths as a spectacular achievement. “We are winning the fight against measles, which has long killed, sickened and disabled our children,” he said. “Our determination is stronger than ever to make measles history by further strengthening our measles control activities, working in concert with our international partners and setting aside resources.”

And who form part of their international partners I wonder? Merck? Wyeth? Bayer? SafeMinds? TACA?

There is even cautious talk of the possibility of ridding the world of measles, but while the eradication of smallpox was a triumph, the long struggle to eliminate the final reservoirs of polio in a handful of countries has shown how difficult it is to stamp out a disease.

And it is the same with measles – a handful of countries are holding back the eradication of measles.

Measles eradication could conceivably be stymied not by the developing world, but by dissenters in rich countries such as the UK

Thats right. My rich, upper middle class fellow countrymen and women. And their American rich upper middle class counterparts. Some of whom think the idea of AAP appealing for help to save kids lives is funny to the point of making jokes about the deaths of children:

From: krstagliano
Date: Feb 16, 2008 6:57 AM
Subject: [EOHarm] Re: JB, email from AAP looking for sick kids
To: EOHarm@yahoogroups.com

Can you imagine the ad campaign? Dad sitting in a confessional proclaiming his remorse and grief for not vaccinating his child, while the bell tolls in the background. Then a quick shot over to a small pink casket with a dolly on top and mother on her knees sobbing in front of the altar……[]

KS

Hilarious eh? Those whacky guys and gals at EoH really know how to make with the funnies.

Please don’t let this morally and scientifically bankrupt bunch of me-me’s keep hogging the media with their poor science. Support the AAP in the US and the NHS in the UK.

Autistic Guinea Pigs

15 Feb

During WWII a number of German doctors conducted painful and often deadly experiments on thousands of concentration and death camp prisoners without their consent.

……..

The second category of experimentation was aimed at developing and testing pharmaceuticals and treatment methods….

josefmengele.jpg

Source

Its always a dangerous thing to invoke the spectre of the Nazi’s. There is a profound risk of undermining or belittling the full horror of what happened in Europe during the second world war. I hope I don’t do that.

However, there are times that I simply know of no other way to illustrate the sort of things that one is sent from the various extreme biomed groups that exist on Yahoo and elsewhere. Who can forget Christine Heeren’s poor son being chelated with garlic and vinegar? Or the young mother being urged to chelate her 9 month old baby because she reported he was ‘smiling inappropriately’? And of course, there’s the death of Tariq Nadama.

All these things are simply experimentation on children, pure and simple. In goal and in safety they are no different that any of Mengle’s.

Does this mean parents are too blame? I don’t know. Is Heeren ‘to blame’ for what is being done to her son? No, I don’t believe so. The practitioner performing the treatment is. He (or she) is the one milking parents who believe they are desperate. They are the ones pawing over the traits of children for clues to a big payday.

So no I don’t think parents are to blame. However – what they are is _responsible_ . At some point one cannot keep saying ‘I didn’t know’. At some point it must filter through that injecting a mix of garlic and vinegar into a child isn’t going to do a damn thing. At that point, the parent becomes complicitly responsible. This is why I have such a hard time with the Nadama’s suing. I cannot believe that they didn’t know what they were doing was quackery. It was not a case like the one I touched on yesterday where parents were misled into a dangerous and nearly fatal procedure simply to further the beliefs of a quack.

There is a Yahoo Group – a very busy one – called MB12 Valtrex which discusses these treatment options for autism. Recently a mother to a two and half year old posted, listing what he was on and what he was like:

GFCF – CF since September ’07
Diflucan
Singulair
Glutathione Cream daily
B12 injections every five days, now going to every 3
Cod Liver Oil
Vitamin A
MultiFlora Spectrum Probiotics
Enzyme Complete DP-IV
Super Nu Thera
Vitamin C – 500 mg per day

I just look at him and he seems SO MUCH worse since we started this. I understand the yeast may be acting up and causing crazy behavior but he is unhappy, unhealthy looking. He has dark circles under his very tired eyes. His stimming and behaviors are just worse than ever. My husband and I keep looking at each other and wondering why it’s getting worse when we’re suppose to be on the right track now.

The past few days he’s had white chunks in his stool. Loser than normal stools, very light in color, almost like mustard with dark specs. DAN doc says yeast does NOT come out in poop … then what is it?

That’s a daily list of meds by the way.

Its unutterably depressing to read this sort of thing and know that this poor kid is being experimented on by the DAN! doc and this poor mother (new to the whole extreme biomed community) simply doesn’t have enough knowledge or energy to stand up to this quack.

The community elders of course – those who have become complicit over the years, those who should know better – encourage her to push on:

I know it’s hard to watch your child get worse when you’re trying so hard. Just keep looking and you’ll find the answers. It took me several months to realize that I needed to keep looking for answers. And please, talk to your own doctor about the trouble you’re having. I know how you feel, I’ve been there (and still am some days).

Just keep looking. Right. This from a person who admits she’s still pretty much where the original poster is.

An amazing veteran Mom told me once that when her kids react poorly, it just keeps her going because she knows she’s hitting something and, although it may not be the right supplement at the right time, she’ll eventually get it right.

She’ll eventually get it right. Yeah. And at what cost?

Does it strike no one else as odd that there _are_ all these ‘veteran moms’ _at all_ if this extreme biomed is supposed to work? Why are they still around and doing treatments and pushing experimentation? Surely their kids are ‘recovered’? Or maybe they’re like Erik Nanstiel’s daughter – still ‘low functioning’ after 6 years of extreme biomed and all this extremeism is there simply to assuage mum and dads self inflicted guilt – guilt carefully nurtured by the quacks lining their pockets at these parents expense and their kids childhoods.

Andrew Wakefield Responds

14 Feb

Andrew Wakefield has responded to the latest MMR Study showing no link between the vaccine and autism.

Just to recap, the latest Baird et al study looked at whether autistic kids and non-autistic controls showed any variance in their measles antibody response. They don’t.

The measles aspect of the MMR vaccine is what Wakefield’s hypothesis relies on. He says because its a live virus its casing gastric issues and then autism in some kids. This study looked to see if there was any evidence of measles-virus in the blood of these kids. There wasn’t. They looked to see if any of the autistic kids had evidence of gastric issues over and above the average. They didn’t.

But Wakers thinks this isn’t good enough.

The study is severely limited by case definition in the context of the crucial ‘possible enterocolitis’ group………….We have over the last 10 years evaluated several thousand children on the autistic spectrum who have significant gastrointestinal symptoms. Upper and lower endoscopy and surgical histology have identified mucosal inflammation in excess of 80% of these children. Almost none of these children with biopsy-proven enterocolitis would fit the criteria set out above………….The requirement for the current presence of these symptoms, for 14 or more days continuously, shows a singular lack of understanding of the episodic, fluctuating, and alternating (e.g. diarrhea/constipation) symptom profile experienced by these children

Wakers thinks that the criteria for defining enterocolitis that Baird et al used was too strict. He says it will occlude the group he’s identified.

He’s probably right. But not in the way he thinks he is. Could it maybe be that _his_ definition of enterocolitis is too slack? His definition includes:

In our experience, ASD children with histologic enterocolitis typically have 1 to 2 unformed stools per day that are very malodorous and usually contain a variety of undigested foodstuffs. This pattern alternates with that of “constipation” in which the unformed stool is passed after many days of no bowel movements at all, and with excessive straining.

With which he claims is ‘identified mucosal inflammation in excess of 80%’ of his kids.

Thing is, a PubMed search for ‘mucosal autism’ returns 20 results. Of which only one support the idea of inflammation – One of Wakers own papers. In fact the only person I could see using the term ‘histologic enterocolitis’ was (you guessed it) AJ Wakefield.

The question immediately occurs: Of the ‘several thousand children on the autistic spectrum who have significant gastrointestinal symptoms’ why hasn’t there been any published, peer-reviewed, replicated, science written up by Wakefield? Why hasn’t anyone else managed to find 80% positive results and published peer reviewed science about their results?

Could it be that its only the team who have screwed up their results that find what they want to find? I think so. Lets quote Stephen Bustin once more.

Now, these are from samples that should have been discarded according to the SOP from Unigenetics because there was no GAPDH present, i.e., the RNA is degraded. If you look at the Cts for the F-gene which they reported as positive you can see they’re the same. Now, if this is degraded RNA yet I’m getting the same Cts for my F-gene target this can’t be RNA because it would have been degraded.

That’s what the GAPDH showed me. Now, if it isn’t RNA it has to be DNA. If it is DNA it can’t be measles virus it has to be a contaminant.

Plain English – Wakefield scoped kids. Sent samples to Unigenetics. They should’ve told Wakers the samples were rubbish. They didn’t. They analysed rubbish samples which were contaminated. What they found wasn’t measles virus.

A frequent complaint from the Wakefield apologists is that by analysing blood samples rather than gut tissue, science teams are not comparing like-for-like. There are a number of reasons why this is questionable.

Firstly, there has to be a _reason_ for scoping children. It is not a straightforward procedure.

Towards the end of last year, an autistic child who was scoped following a recommendation by Simon Murch, a colleague of Andrew Wakefield’s, was awarded £500,000 damages after his bowel was perforated in 12 places.

An autistic boy has won a £500,000 payout after the hospital at the centre of the MMR scandal carried out an operation that was ‘not clinically justified’.

Jack Piper, then five, was left battling for life after the procedure, which his parents claim was carried out to establish links between his condition and bowel problems.

His bowel was perforated in more than 12 places during surgery at the Royal Free Hospital in North London.

…………

The colonoscopy was suggested by Professor Simon Murch. He is being investigated by the General Medical Council over allegations that he carried out invasive tests including colonoscopies on 11 other children contrary to their best clinical interests.

It is an ethical issue – is a scoping procedure ethically justified? The answer is ‘no’ – that hasn’t stopped Wakers doing ‘thousands’ though apparently.

Secondly, is there any reason why looking blood is not good enough? Awhile ago, I asked a Doctor (who wished to remain anonymous) who told me:

measles is a lymphotropic virus, even more so for the vaccine strain which has been selected to exploit the CD46 cellular receptor. If there is a persistent MV infection the most logical place to detect it is in cells that it is most adept at infecting. Lymphocytes [a type of blood cell]

(Insert mine).

So, there’s not really any reason why blood cells wouldn’t be suitable to check for measles virus, despite Wakefield’s opinion.

And in fact, at least one team _wanted_ to use Wakefield’s samples but their request was ignored:

The groups of investigators that either had access to original autism specimens or investigated them later for measles virus detection were invited to take part in the study but failed to respond. Similarly, it was not possible to obtain clinical specimens of autism cases from these investigators for independent investigations.

Now I have to wonder why, if Wakefield et al are claiming that only scoped samples are any good, or that blood is no good they didn’t hand over the samples they had harvested with the gratitude of a team expecting to be replicated.

Maybe they didn’t really want another science team looking at these samples. Maybe they feared what another team would find.

And what about this inflammation Wakefield alleges to have found? Turns out that its possible to screen for inflammation without the need for scoping.

Fecal calprotectin is a marker for a range of gastric issues, notably IBD (irritable bowel disease) and Crohn’s which it has positive results for.

A 2002 study Effect of Pentavac and measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination on the intestine looked at:

if MMR vaccination is associated with subclinical intestinal inflammation, which is central to the autistic “enterocolitis” theory

To do this, the team:

….studied 109/58 infants, before and two and four weeks after immunisation with Pentavac and MMR vaccines, for the presence of intestinal inflammation (faecal calprotectin).

The results were:

There were no statistically significant differences in faecal calprotectin concentrations at any time points (p>0.25) or when assessed in subjects studied before and after Pentavac (p>0.2) or MMR (p>0.3) vaccination

and

There was no evidence that either Pentavac or MMR vaccination provoked subclinical intestinal inflammation in any of our apparently healthy children during the four week post-vaccination period. This lack of a detectable intestinal inflammatory response suggests that the measles vaccine virus itself is not enterotoxic in healthy infants which argues against the MMR induced autistic “enterocolitis” theory.

And so we come back to the bottom line. What direction does peer reviewed published science take us in? It takes us away from Wakefield.

There are no good reasons to believe that blood samples are not good enough to compare with gut samples and if Wakefield believes otherwise, why didn’t he provide the samples to the Afzal team when asked to?

There is no good reason to justify dangerous, invasive procedures such as the one Wakefield has used on thousands of kids and which left one child fighting for life with a massively perforated bowel. Fecal calprotectin is more than adequate as a marker of intestinal issues and using this method reveals no association between MMR and autism.

Mark Blaxill Thinks Bloggers Are Mean

4 Feb

Mark Blaxill, the token man of the mercury moms at SafeMinds, has written a lip-trembling post over on Age of Autism about how mean bloggers can be. Lets have a bit of fun with it shall we?

The rapid evolution of the Internet has created a host of fascinating, exhilarating and occasionally despicable new things. The Age of Autism is a blog and we’re proud to be a part of a new phenomenon called the blogosphere……But as one might expect with any new form of cultural expression, there’s a bizarre variant of the blogosphere out there. It’s a strange hybrid: it looks like a regular low end blog, based almost entirely on opinion, a dressed up version of the typical online discussion groups and chat rooms….In a disturbing way, this new hybrid has found its way into the debates and controversies around autism science…..Often connected with the so-called “neurodiversity” movement, many of these game players seem to define themselves by their own “autism”

So if I’m understanding Marky Mark, the blogosphere is a ‘new phenomenon’ upon which the light of the countenance of the Age of Autism has charitably fallen.

This ‘new phenomenon’ actually was first realised nine years ago Marky Mark. I await with bated breath Marky’s breathless announcement come 2017 that Age of Autism has discovered a ‘new phenomenon’ called Facebook. Truly the interweb is a wondrous thing. A piece of advice though Mark – never, ever type ‘Google’ into Google.

And these ‘low ends blogs’….my, my whomever could he be referring to? Surely not Autism Diva’s blog with a Google PR of 5 on the home page and over 1,150 Google backlinks to it? Or maybe Orac’s with a PR of 7 for the home page and which has over 6,100 Google backlinks to it? or maybe my own which has a PR 6 on the home page of the blog and over 2,700 Google backlinks to it.

Or maybe ‘low end’ might refer to a blog which has a PR of 3 on its home page and Google link operator can find no back link data for. I wonder, can anyone suggest a blog with user stats that low end?

Anyway, Marky Mark has a point to make and by god he’s eventually going to get around to making it dammit! Even if he has to rhetoricise our asses into verbal comas!!

But unlike people that engage in the blogosphere using their real names and identities, these avatars all have one thing in common.

They’re cowards.

Hmmmm, really? Is that why some people choose to blog anonymously?

I really hate to break this piece of news to Marky Mark but passing opinions online predates the web. Why go back to the old BBS’s and you’d find a whole bunch of people chatting away with (gasp!) fake names. In fact, I hear tell that some CB radio enthusiasts use fake names too!! The dirty cowards!

There’s a damn good reason why some people blog anonymously Marky Mark as I have good reason to know about – people who espouse similar views to you Marky Mark, target their children. People like John Best for example are very good reasons for preserving anonymity. Here’s what happens when one of his friends annoys him. What do you suppose he has in store for my child?

But who Marky Mark is really pouting about is Do’C and Interverbal, two bloggers who took the time out to look at a recent paper that Marky Mark was counting on to support his kook hypotheses. So annoyed by these two ‘low end’ bloggers (PR 5 on each of their blogs) that he elected to censor out the name of the blog they wrote at!

“Unfortunately, the main bloggers of [censored wackosphere site name] have taken the time to respond to almost all of the other blogs about this article

‘wackosphere’ (tee-hee!!) is the name Marky Mark has bestowed upon autism related blogs more popular than his it seems. That’s a lot of blogs.

So shocked was I at this blatant censorship that I nearly contacted the Ever So Important Editor on Age of Autism to ask if they would write a piece about this – after all they penned 10 blog entries last week decrying censorship – they must really hate it!

In fact so grasping does Marky Mark become that he actually says:

In fact, at a deeper level, there’s a widespread pattern of scientific intimidation and censorship underway in autism science that relies on a wide range of attack dogs…

Hey yeah – I know what you mean Marky Mark like what happened to Dr Paul Offit at the hands of the mercury militia:

….as Paul Offit, a vaccine expert who served on the committee, tried to make his way through the crowd, one of the protestors screamed at him through a megaphone: “The devil—it’s the devil!” One protester held a sign that read “TERRORIST” with a photo of Offit’s face. Just before Offit reached the door, a man dressed in a prison uniform grabbed Offit’s jacket. “It was harrowing,” Offit recalls.

….
He has since received hundreds of malicious and threatening emails, letters and phone calls accusing him of poisoning children and “selling out” to pharmaceutical companies. One phone caller listed the names of Offit’s two young children and the name of their school. One email contained a death threat—”I will hang you by your neck until you’re dead”—that Offit reported to federal investigators.

Or Paul Shattuck, also from the mercury militia:

One person said, “Don’t be surprised if you get a knock on your door in the middle of the night and I’ll be there.” Another message said it was easy in the age of the Internet to find out where people live.

Shattuck also had various utterly untrue allegations made about him by the NAA.

Or how about Arthur Allen and Professor Roy Grinker who have also been on the receiving end of threats of violence:

these people need to be horse whipped…

Or how about Ray Gallup, Director and co-founder of the Vaccine Autoimmune Project? here’s what he had to say recently:

Dear ****:

Since you seem to follow what is going on with the Leitch list let me know if Leitch, Deer and the others get hit with a fast moving truck or bus that leaves their carcasses mangled and bloodly on the street.

I will be devotely praying night and day that something like this happens to them and their followers. Especially since these creeps say such hurtful things to parents. They deserve all the best in something terrible happening to every last one of them and I will pray daily.

I usually pray for good things for families that suffer but in their case I will make a big exception.

Ray Gallup

Or what about this Marky Mark?

A-YEAR-and-a-half ago, a vaccines expert in the eastern US received a phone call at home. The man on the line did not identify himself; he simply stated the names and ages of the researcher’s two children and the schools they attended, then hung up. The threat was shocking, but not a surprise. “I get hate mail every day,” says the researcher, who asked not to be named.

Many vaccine scientists in the US have received similar threats in recent years. They are thought to come from a hard core of parents who, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, are convinced that small amounts of mercury in vaccines have made their children autistic. What’s more, they believe that researchers are complicit in the scandal.

How about what EoH member and mercury militia jackass Brian Hooker did to Dr Sarah Parker? He harasses her to the point her campus security services had to get involved and she sent this email to Hooker – which he proudly displayed online:

Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 14:03:17 -0600
From: Sarah Parker
Subject: Re: Sarah Parker on the show “To The Point”
To:
Cc:

I have received your phone messages (yesterday evening and today) and emails. I would like to inform you that due to your previous threat to me in November and the tone and content of these current calls and emails I consider these as threats/harassment as well and am documenting them with the campus police department. I respect your right to disagree and wish you would respect that same right with me. Please do not contact me again in the future.

Sarah Parker

How about Brad Handley of Generation rescue saying to me:

If we were on a rugby pitch, Kev, I’d put my boot in your eye and twist…

Marky Mark is quite right that there are wacko’s in the online autism community. All he has to do to find them is look to his left and right. He closes his diatribe with:

We need to defend some minimum standards for how people are permitted to participate in a public debate. At the top of the list of these standards should be this: if anyone wants to participate in a debate about autism, put your real self on the line: your real name, your actual body of work (if you have any) and your professional accomplishments and reputation. Put the things that really matter — your family’s future and your personal career prospects — out in public for everyone to see if you want to exercise the privilege of participation in civil society. If you’re willing to do that, then you have a right to be heard. If you’re not, then you should go back to your game and keep playing with yourself. Let serious people do serious work.

And he’s serious. He means it. How he:

a) Expects to set himself up as the arbiter of whats acceptable online and;
b) Expects people to be comfortable using their real names when he stands alongside the people listed above

I really can’t imagine. Believe me, if I’d known that pond scum like John Best shared a planet with me I would never have used my real identity. Its also quote clear that Mark Blaxills friends and colleagues hold no compunctions about besmirching reputations with groundless attacks and or threats of violence upon them or their children.

Look around you Marky Mark. That rarefied air you’re sucking down? Its the polluted air of the real wackosphere. A land where threats against children is fair game and where killers and paedophiles are welcomed in with no checks and open arms and the leaders of the many antivaccine kook organisations encourage and salivate after violence against anyone who disagrees with them.

The evolution of Eli Stone

1 Feb

This is a Guest Blogged piece written by new bloggers from Hollywood Spectrum.

For those who don’t know (I wish I were one of you), there is a TV show about to premiere called "Eli Stone". It was likely going to be a pretty run-of-the-mill premiere. Possibly, it was going to be a total non event.But, the plot includes autism. Not only does it include autism, but it involves a lawyer doing what has never happened in real life-he win’s a case about how mercury in vaccines caused autism in a child. This led to a number of news stories, internet discussions and blog posts.

Well, after the initial press on this, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) sent a letter to ABC/Disney asking them to pull the show since it could erode confidence in vaccines.  Somehow this was characterized as big-bad AAP trying to bully ABC/Disney.  Now, Disney is a company that has revenues of nearly $9B per quarter.  Yeah, AAP was twisting their arm by giving them free publicity.

Did anyone really believe that ABC/Disney would pull the show?  I mean, really, they just got a lot of free publicity for what was likely to be a pretty forgettable show.   How can I say this was going to be forgettable?  Because the original script was something worth forgetting.  Consider when Eli Stone visits a Chinese acupuncturist (who somehow brings about visions in Stone).  The good Dr. Chen was given such amazing lines in pigeon English as:

"You go regular doctor? Dr. Chen not MRI."

and

"I have patient, you come back half hour."

and

"No good hate dead people. Relah. Think good memory father. Dr. Chen help ungrateful son" 

OK, so, the dialogue was lame.  And, believe me, this isn’t the only example.  A whole blog post could be devoted to it, but this is an autism blog not a TV critic blog.  Maybe Dr. Chen is  supposed to be "comedy".  But, is it OK to stereotype for comedy?  If so, how about stereotyping (incorrectly) autism for drama.  Let’s look at how about the "autism" part of the script is portrayed. Here is their stage direction for the William character from the script:

William doesn’t smile. His autism doesn’t permit it.

What?!?  Autism "doesn’t permit" smiling?  So, people who smile aren’t autistic?  That should bring down the autism "epidemic"!  Just reject the diagnosis for all the people with autism who smile.  My guess is that it would be a pretty rare condition then. 

In the original script, the fight is with an insurance company who won’t pay for the treatments of the young "William", who is autistic.  The first mention of the word "autism" comes when the mother is describing this situation:

My son has autism. He needs Risperidone every day..

Whoa.  Was that about mercury?  Nope.  It’s about Risperidone.  Yep, instead of mercury causing autism, the story was about how the fictional kid needed an off-label prescription for an antipsychotic drug and the insurance company wouldn’t pay.

How does that jive with the writer’s idea of autism?  Well, the mother describes the value of Risperidone as:

After a month on the drug, he actually smiled.

For the record, Risperidone is pretty serious medication.  It has been shown to benefit some people with autism.  But, "smiling"?  I guess that scripts don’t need science advisor approval before being approved.

Somewhere between first and, let’s face it, lame final draft and premiere, the story shifted to vaccine/mercury caused autism.  A story line guaranteed to generate controversy.  A story line guaranteed to get publicity.

It’s too bad.  Yes, the reliance of the original script on Risperidone might have caused some consternation amongst the autism community.  Yes, the stereotype of the kid "whose autism prevents him from smiling" was lame at best, damaging at worst.  But, insurance coverage for autism is a big deal right now.  A good presentation of how insurance companies deny claims for autism could have actually helped people and families with autism.

A bad day for antivaccinationists: Yet another study fails to support an association between vaccines and neurodevelopmental disorders

30 Sep

This blog entry first appeared at Respectful Insolence. It is reproduced here with permission.

A bad day for antivaccinationists: Yet another study fails to support an association between vaccines and neurodevelopmental disorders
By Orac.

I’m almost beginning to feel sorry for the mercury militia.

Think about it. They’ve been claiming for the past several years that the mercury in the thimerosal used as a preservative in childhood vaccines is a cause of autism. If you believe Generation Rescue, A-CHAMP, SAFEMINDS, and various other activist groups, vaccines are the root of all neurodevelopmental evil, culminating in what to them seems to be the most evil of evil condition, autism. Yet, in study after study in the new millennium, no correlation has been found to implicated their favorite bte noire thimerosal, which serves as a surrogate for their general dislike of vaccines in general.

It comes as no surprise, then, that A-CHAMP would want to launch a pre-emptive strike against a large study of thimerosal-containing vaccines that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine today. Blazing out of their website is the headline New CDC Study Falsely Claims Thimerosal is Safe

On September 27, 2007 the New England Journal of Medicine will publish a study entitled, “Early Thimerosal Exposure and Neuropsychological Outcomes at 7 to 10 Years.” For more than two years we at A-CHAMP have been hearing rumors of a new study that “exonerates” thimerosal, despite the fact that the study results were supposed to be kept strictly confidential.

Now the rumors have been turned into hype – another government funded study that tries to spin data and clear thimerosal of any suspicion of causing neurodevelopmental disorders. The study authors claim in their “Conclusions” that “[o]ur study does not support a causal association between early exposure to mercury from thimerosal-containing vaccines and immune globulins and neuropsychological functioning at the age of 7 to 10 years.”

The statement is plainly false. The study’s conclusions do not reflect the study’s data or the limitations of the study,

You’d think that at least A-CHAMP would correct that hanging comma at the end of the sentence there.

Sarcasm aside, the study’s conclusions do reflect the study’s data, quite well, as we will see, and A=CHAMP’s complaints boil down to the usual crank technique of cherry picking the evidence, combined perhaps with sour grapes. Let’s lay the abstract out for all to see before we look at A-CHAMP’s individual points:

Early Thimerosal Exposure and Neuropsychological Outcomes at 7 to 10 Years
William W. Thompson, Ph.D., Cristofer Price, Sc.M., Barbara Goodson, Ph.D., David K. Shay, M.D., M.P.H., Patti Benson, M.P.H., Virginia L. Hinrichsen, M.S., M.P.H., Edwin Lewis, M.P.H., Eileen Eriksen, M.P.H., Paula Ray, M.P.H., S. Michael Marcy, M.D., John Dunn, M.D., M.P.H., Lisa A. Jackson, M.D., M.P.H., Tracy A. Lieu, M.D., M.P.H., Steve Black, M.D., Gerrie Stewart, M.A., Eric S. Weintraub, M.P.H., Robert L. Davis, M.D., M.P.H., Frank DeStefano, M.D., M.P.H., for the Vaccine Safety Datalink Team

Background It has been hypothesized that early exposure to thimerosal, a mercury-containing preservative used in vaccines and immune globulin preparations, is associated with neuropsychological deficits in children.

Methods We enrolled 1047 children between the ages of 7 and 10 years and administered standardized tests assessing 42 neuropsychological outcomes. (We did not assess autism-spectrum disorders.) Exposure to mercury from thimerosal was determined from computerized immunization records, medical records, personal immunization records, and parent interviews. Information on potential confounding factors was obtained from the interviews and medical charts. We assessed the association between current neuropsychological performance and exposure to mercury during the prenatal period, the neonatal period (birth to 28 days), and the first 7 months of life.

Results Among the 42 neuropsychological outcomes, we detected only a few significant associations with exposure to mercury from thimerosal. The detected associations were small and almost equally divided between positive and negative effects. Higher prenatal mercury exposure was associated with better performance on one measure of language and poorer performance on one measure of attention and executive functioning. Increasing levels of mercury exposure from birth to 7 months were associated with better performance on one measure of fine motor coordination and on one measure of attention and executive functioning. Increasing mercury exposure from birth to 28 days was associated with poorer performance on one measure of speech articulation and better performance on one measure of fine motor coordination.

Conclusions Our study does not support a causal association between early exposure to mercury from thimerosal-containing vaccines and immune globulins and deficits in neuropsychological functioning at the age of 7 to 10 years.

It’s noted that a similar study looking at autism will be published next year. Of course, the fact that this study didn’t look at autism leaves the antivaxers a huge opening to say, “Well, yes, but you didn’t look at autism.” Never mind that there are now several studies that did look at autism and found no association between thimerosal-containing vaccines and autism. So what are the main complaints that A-CHAMP has about this study? Let’s take a look, starting with the first one:

The Study’s Claim of No Causality is Contrary to the Study’s Data. The study authors claim that the data disproves causality when in fact, several findings show a negative effect on neuropsychological functioning warranting more study. At least one such adverse association was also found to be associated with low dose thimerosal exposure in other studies. As with earlier studies hyped by vaccine promoters, the study is unable to prove or disprove causality. The blanket dismissal of the troubling neuropsychological outcomes in this study is disingenuous and misleading.

First off, the study didn’t claim that there was “no causality.” What it stated is exactly what you see in the Conclusions section: That the study does not support a causal relationship. There’s a difference there too subtle for the ideologues who wrote this press release to understand. It’s impossible ever to prove “no causality.” It is, however, possible to conclude from the data that the data does not support a causal relationship. Second, A-CHAMP is cherry picking associations here. It is true that there were some negative correlations found that achieved statistical significance. When running 42 tests, it would be shocking if there were not a few anomalous findings. What makes the study authors fairly confident that the findings are anomalous is that they were divided roughly equally in both directions, good and bad. Consequently, if A-CHAMP is going to insist that the correlation, for example, with increasing mercury exposure and poorer performance on the GFTA-2 measure of speech articulation test, then it must also accept the findings of a beneficial association between mercury and identification of letters and numbers on the WJ-III test, as there is no reason to reject it. Naturally, the mercury militia picks on the associations as being true that they want to be true and ignore the other associations, which, if true, would be arguments for including thimerosal in vaccines. It’s far more likely that all of them are just noise. Again, the reason that investigators can reasonably conclude that the associations found are most likely due to random chance is because of their random distribution between positive and negative.

Another complaint:

Children with autism were excluded from this study. The early media contacts we have received suggest that this study shows no association between thimerosal and autism. In fact, the study specifically did not look at children with autism as the sample size was too small and the testing is impossible to complete for the typical child with autism. The exclusion of children with autism from the study may have undermined the power of the study to draw any conclusions about thimerosal.

This is a really, really dumb statement. I’m sorry, but there’s no other way to put it. It just is. It’s like criticizing an apple for not being an orange. The explanation for this is right in the paper, “Since the CDC is conducting a separate case-control study of autism in relation to mercury exposure, a measure of autism was not included in the test battery.” Get it, idiots? A separate study is being done and the results will be reported in a separate paper! That renders this complaint utterly irrelevant. It’s nothing more than a red herring designed to fire up the faithful.

This complaint is not really stupid, but definitely overblown:

The Study’s Methodology has Serious Limitations Negating Any Conclusions Drawn. Major flaws that that causes a large underestimation of neurological adverse effects burden the study: 70% of the families recruited for the study failed to participate. This kind of bias in epidemiological studies is well known to distort even large studies of health effects…It is well established that people who choose to participate in this kind of study are probably very different than those who refuse to participate (the “healthy person” or “complier” effect); especially when the ones who refused to participate said they were too busy.

Simply put: if you have a kid with ADHD or mild ASD or other neurodevelopmental disorders, you are likely to be busier, more stressed, and less available than the mother of a healthy normal child. This phenomenon serves to amplify the effect of the “complier”, the ;healthy families,” – those who do cooperate with the study – confounding or confusing the study’s results. The cooperative parents included in the study were more likely to be those with relatively trouble-free kids

There’s no evidence that this sort of bias existed, and A-CHAMP conveniently omits other biases that might be result from such a selection bias. For example, it is also quite possible to argue that parents who think vaccines may have caused their child’s condition would be even more likely to want to participate in the study (self-selection bias), than parents whose children are normal or who don’t believe vaccines had anything to do with their child’s problems; they might have thought that it wasn’t worth their bother. It’s good of the antivaxers who have been championing the execrable telephone survey done by Generation Rescue to recognize that this sort of bias exists; too bad they only mention it when it suits their purposes (i.e., to trash a study whose results they don’t like) and ignore it when it doesn’t, for example when it calls into doubt the results of the Generation Rescue telephone poll.

In reality, the fact that only 30% of the families who were approached for the study agreed to participate is probably the most significant weakness of the study. The authors don’t try to hide it. Rather, they are right up front with it in the Discussion section, while at the same time pointing out that this is this possible bias was ameliorated by enrolling children on the basis of having received vaccinations without regard to the seeking of health care or having been given a neurodevelopmental diagnosis, as well as noting that many children weren’t enrolled because they couldn’t be located. Moreover, exposure information was obtained from many different sources. It also looked at prenatal exposure to thimerosal-containing vaccinations from vaccines that the mother might have had while pregnant.

Next complaint:

Vulnerable Children Were Excluded from the Study; Early Intervention Was Ignored. Children with a birth weight under 5 lbs. 8 oz. were excluded from the study further skewing the results, as these children are likely more vulnerable to thimerosal than larger babies. In addition, the fact that early intervention may have reduced deficits such as speech delay detected by neuropsychological testing of children aged 7-10 was not accounted for in the study results. There also was no analysis of combined prenatal and postnatal mercury exposures. Only 103 mothers who were exposed to mercury from prenatal immune globulins participated in the study, far too small a group for researchers to draw conclusions regarding the safety of thimerosal in these products.

This is a grab-bag of the specious and semireasonable. The reason for excluding low birthweight children was obvious: Such children are more likely to have neurodevelopmental problems completely independent from any external cause, such as thimerosal. Including preemies and lower birth weight children would only contribute to the background noise and make finding true associations more difficult. A-CHAMP should be glad that the investigators did that, given that it was almost certainly done to make the study more likely to find an association between vaccines and neurodevelopmental disorders. In addition, there is no evidence that low birth weight children are “more vulnerable to thimerosal.” Of course, once again, A-CHAMP fails to point out that the authors themselves pointed out the shortcoming in regard to not being able to account for interventions such as speech therapy. As for the whining about not analyzing combined prenatal and postnatal mercury exposures, that’s just a red herring; the study did test an a priori assumption of interaction between pre- and postnatal mercury exposure.

The rest of the complaints are the standard ones: Conflict of interest, for example, because several of the study’s authors had received funding from pharmaceutical companies. These potential conflicts of interest are clearly stated in the study. A-CHAMP also brings up a totally specious complaint of the study supposedly not accounting for “efflux” disorder (i.e., children who are allegedly “poor excretors” of mercury). Fortunately, Prometheus has provided a good explanation of what a crock that whole myth is, so that I don’t have to.

Of course, there is another reason, besides this study failing to show what the mercury militia wants it to, that there is such hostility here:

The politicization of the thimerosal issue has led researchers to take unprecedented measures. Unlike previous studies, the current study included more than a dozen outside consultants, including at least one advocate for families of children with autism. “We have really tried to make the entire process–from experiment design to manuscript review–as transparent as possible,” says Thompson. But that effort may not have made a difference in the long run. Sallie Bernard, executive director of Safe Minds, a nonprofit parents’ organization that focuses on the role of mercury in neurodevelopment disorders, consulted on the study but still takes issue with its findings. “All the studies, including this one have certain limitations in their design and their methodology,” she says.

Sour grapes, anyone? Ms. Bernard was a consultant on this study and helped contribute to its design! She apparently didn’t like the results that it was producing and decided to drop out and start criticizing it–even jumping the gun on the 5 PM embargo yesterday to do so! Indeed, she is listed on the study in a way that I’ve never seen before: as a “dissenting member.”

How many studies by mercury militia enablers Mark and David Geier include even a note of dissent?

Although this study is not without flaws, it nonetheless does not support a correlation between thimerosal-containing vaccines and the neurodevelopmental problems studied. Even better, the New England Journal of Medicine included two editorials along with the story. One editorial discussed the explosion of vaccine litigation that the now discredited thimerosal “hypothesis” has unleashed, immune to the findings of science. The second editorial is by Paul Offit (the Antichrist to antivaxers) and makes an excellent point about the unintended consequences of taking precautionary measures on the basis of little or no evidence:

On July 9, 1999, after much wrangling, the CDC and AAP decided to exercise the precautionary principle. They asked pharmaceutical companies to remove thimerosal from vaccines as quickly as possible; in the interim, they asked doctors to delay the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine in children who weren’t at risk for hepatitis. A press release issued by the AAP revealed the ambivalence among its members: “Parents should not worry about the safety of vaccines,” it read. “The current levels of thimerosal will not hurt children, but reducing those levels will make safe vaccines even safer. While our current immunization strategies are safe, we have an opportunity to increase the margin of safety.” Critics wondered how removing something that hadn’t been found to be unsafe could make vaccines safer. But many parents, frightened by a sudden change in policy, reasoned that thimerosal was targeted because it was harmful — and their faith in the vaccine infrastructure was shaken. Doctors were also confused by the recommendation.

I could see how that would confuse parents and doctors. Offit concludes:

Despite several years of reassuring studies, the thimerosal controversy continues to be emotionally charged. Physicians, scientists, government policy advisors, and child advocates who have publicly stated that vaccines don’t cause neurologic problems or autism have been harassed, threatened, and vilified, receiving hate mail and occasionally death threats. The CDC, in response to planned protests at its gates, recently beefed up security and instructed personnel about how to respond if physically attacked.

During the next few years, thimerosal will probably be removed from influenza vaccines, and the court cases will probably settle down. But the thimerosal controversy should stand as a cautionary tale of how not to communicate theoretical risks to the public; otherwise, the lesson inherent in the collateral damage caused by its precipitous removal will remain unlearned.

Exactly. With the best of intentions, trying to be as “safe” as possible, the AAP and CDC unleashed a tsunami of fear of vaccines and laid the groundwork for pseudoscientists like Mark and David Geier to stoke the fears of mercury further with badly designed studies. This was an example of framing science at its worst.

In the end, it is always frustrating to watch how such studies are spun by antivaccinationists. Epidemiology is like that, though. It’s virtually impossible to conduct a cohort study like this without permitting significant shortcomings in it. The reason is that, unlike a bench experiment, the investigators can never control all the variables. Trade-offs are inevitably made, and rarely are there adequate resources to assure sample sizes large enough to be bullet-proof or to be able to account for all potentially confounding variables. No one study is ever sufficient to rule out correlations between undesirable outcomes and various compounds. However, as the weight of several studies starts to bear down on the problem, the preponderance of evidence must at some point be accepted, because we do not have unlimited resources to keep doing studies to answer the same question over and over and over again and every repeated study uses resources that could be used to study other potential causes and treatments for autism. This study happens to be one large and convincing chunk of that evidence, but it is not the only one. Coming next year, when the CDC releases a similar trial about autism, will be another. As Dr. Offit said:

In a new study, Thompson and his colleagues are taking another look at thimerosal exposure and autism. But for many, the question has been resolved. “This study is the third one of its kind. When the autism one comes out, it will be the sixth of its kind. They’ve all shown the same thing–that there is no significant correlation,” says Offit. “Meanwhile, the thimerosal question has diverted attention and resources away from the search for more promising leads on what causes autism. How many more studies will it take?”

That’s the difference between science and crankery. If this study had shown a clear and convincing correlation between thimerosal in vaccines and neurdevelopmental disorders, I would have accepted the results and perhaps started to change my mind. On the other hand, for cranks, no number of studies is ever enough to dissuade them from their beliefs. If God Himself were to come down from on high and design the absolutely perfect study, which when carried out showed no correlation between thimerosal in vaccines and neurodevelopmental disorders, the antivaccinationists would insist that it was flawed, that the investigators had conflicts of interest, and that it needs to be repeated until (although they would never admit this) it shows the results they want it to show.

In fact, expect just that. The CDC has pledged to make the raw data available to other researchers. I predict that, within a few months, a study by Mark and David Geier will use their trademark bad statistics and bad math to cook the numbers to make it look as though there are associations between thimerosal in vaccines and neurodevelopmental disorders that the CDC “covered up.”

Just wait.

ADDENDUM: Some more commentary on this study:

From Left Brain/Right Brain:

No, everything was fine and dandy as long as she [Bernard] was enjoying being fawned over as a “representative of the autism community” and a fellow-scientist instead of the commercial marketer she actually is. Here’s a clue, Sallie: If you’re going to play scientist, you have to follow the rules of science, and that means you stand by your results. You don’t get to say “heads I win, tails you lose” by waiting to see the outcome before deciding whether the study was any good.

And you really don’t get to have CDC at your beck and call, spend hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars to do a study to your specifications, then turn around and call them liars when you don’t like how it comes out.

And you, CDC? You’re not just a victim here. Every time you say “let’s do more research” or “we are examining this issue” in order to appease the mercury moms, you increase the chances that kids will go unvaccinated because you failed to give their parents confidence in the safety of vaccines. When you say a study is reassuring and then highlight what is virtually certain to have been a chance finding (a statistical association between higher thimerosal exposure and transient tics in boys) without making it abundantly clear that some false associations were inevitable given the study design, you defeat the purpose of doing the study.

From AutismVox:

Safe Minds, whose Executive Director, Sallie Bernard, was an external consultant and dissenting member of the study, put out a press release stating that the new study’s “draws a misleading conclusion.” But this statement is as “misleading” as the headlines cited above are about the study’s actual contents This only furthers the belief that–no matter how clearly it is stated and shown that there is no causal association between early exposure to thimerasol and later neuropsychological outcomes—a link between these has been firmly established in the public mind. And disputing that link will take more studies, more evidence, more efforts, and more self-scrutiny of why we believe what we believe.

From Autism Natural Variation:

The CDC study looked at 42 different outcomes, and determined multiple confidence intervals in each case, since different levels of exposure were tested. In total, I understand there were over 300 confidence intervals. Consequently, assuming the null hypothesis is correct, you should expect that an RR of 1.0 will be outside the 95% confidence interval in over 15 measures. What the study found was that in 12 measures there was an apparent protective factor, and in 8 measures there was an apparent risk factor. This is completely consistent with the null hypothesis. Therefore, the conclusion of the study, namely that the results of the same do not support a causal association between thimerosal-containing vaccines and neurological outcomes, is absolutely the correct conclusion.

From Arthur Allen on The Huffington Post:

Despite the wealth of data showing that vaccines do not cause autism, many parents continue to believe the theory. Jenny McCarthy, an ex-Playboy Bunny and TV personage, has been making the rounds of the media this week (Oprah, ABC, People magazine) to promote her book, in which she claims that her child was made autistic by vaccines but was “recovered” through alternative therapies.

A large CDC study comparing thimerosal exposure rates in autistic and non-autistic kids is due out around this time next year, as is an Italian study of the question. The data will probably duplicate the many previous studies that have shown no effect. The dogs may bark but the caravan moves on. Or is it the other way around

(The comments from die-hard antivaxers after Allen’s post are scary indeed.)

From Derek Lowe at In the Pipeline:

The director of SafeMinds, a group of true thimerosal believers if ever there was, actually was on the consulting board of this latest study. But she withdrew her name from the final document. The CDC is conducting a large thimerosal-and-autism study whose results should come out next year. Here’s a prediction for you: if that one fails to show a connection, and I have every expectation that it’ll fail to show one, SafeMinds will not accept the results. Anyone care to bet against that?

As a scientist, I’ve had to take a lot of good, compelling ideas of mine and toss them into the trash when the data failed to support them. Not everything works, and not everything that looks as if it makes sense really does. It’s getting to the point with the autism/thimerosal hypothesis- has, in fact, gotten to the point quite some time ago – that the data have failed to support it. If you disagree, and I know from my e-mail that some readers will, then ask yourself what data would suffice to make you abandon your belief? If you can’t think of any, you have moved beyond medicine and beyond science, and I’ll not follow you.

Commenting on David Kirby’s truly idiotic take on this study in The Huffington Post, Steve Novella at Neurologica:

What Kirby does is not just really dumb, it’s despicable. He cherry picks all the negative (meaning bad) neurological outcomes and pretends that the study shows a correlation (it doesn’t, when you look at ALL the data). He then tries to dismiss the positive (good) outcomes as absurd. He mockingly writes:

If they (the CDC) really mean that thimerosal increases IQ levels in males, then sign me up for a double-dose flu shot this year.

No, David, they don’t mean that. Not by any stretch of the imagination. It takes incompetent statistical analysis or the blindness of ideology to write something so ridiculous. What the CDC means is that the study does NOT show that thimerosal increases IQ, nor that it causes motor tics, or improve motor skills, or decrease language skills, or anything else. The study showed no correlations because it all averaged out as noise.

Steve, normally polite to a fault even with cranks, seems to be laying down a bit of the old Respectful Insolence(tm). I like it.

Dore pwned in medical journal: expensive and unproven ‘cure’

29 Sep

The Dore programme is an interesting ‘cure’ for all kinds of things: as Dorothy Bishop puts it, “Dore Achievement Centres are springing up world-wide with a mission to cure cerebellar developmental delay, thought to be the cause of dyslexia, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, dyspraxia and Asperger’s syndrome. Remarkable success is claimed for an exercise-based treatment that is designed to accelerate cerebellar development.” Sound great, doesn’t it. Except, as Bishop shows in a new journal article, this is not supported by good evidence and it is therefore the case that “the claims made for this expensive treatment are misleading”. While academic journals are normally pretty restrained, this is about as close as I’ve seen to a thoroughgoing fisking in a journal article: Dore, and their research, are really pwned here. Given that – according to Ben Goldacre in the Guardian – a course of Dore treatment costs around £1,700 (and takes a load of time) I’d want much better evidence of efficacy before splashing out.

Dore is certainly well-promoted. Google “Asperger’s Syndrome” and it brings up an advert for Dore’s “Proven Long Term Drug-Free Solution Relieving the Symptoms of Aspergers”. Google “dyspraxia” and an advert informs one about Dore offering a “Proven Long Term Drug-Free Solution Relieving the Symptoms of Dyspraxia”. Google “dyslexia” and an advert promotes Dore as a “Proven Drug-Free, Exercise Based Dyslexia Remedy”. As a slick Dore promotional DVD puts it: “Now Dore Centres are able to offer real hope to those in despair” due to suffering from ‘learning disorders’. This includes Asperger’s Syndrome, which Dore’s UK site describes as “a problem associated with poor social behaviour.” Dore is apparently “suitable for those with high functioning Asperger’s Syndrome and Autism” (are any alternative treatments nowadays not marketed as suitable for people on the autistic spectrum?).

This marketing might make Dore seem appealing. Bishop notes that, “Although most of the promotion of the treatment is based on personal testimonials, these are backed up by research. Dore pointed to a study showing that treatment led to a nearly fivefold improvement in comprehension, a threefold improvement in reading age, and a 17-fold improvement in writing.” Sounds good, right? But the quality of the research was pretty dismal. Among other problems, while the research did include a control group

there were no data corresponding to a time when the treatment group had had intervention and the control group had not – because the control group had embarked on treatment at the end of the first phase. Accordingly, the authors presented the data only from the treated group.

‘Oops’, is all I can say…Bishop puts it more eloquently, making clear that “The publication of two papers in peer-reviewed scientific journal (Dyslexia) has been presented as giving further credibility to the treatment. However, the research community in this area has been dismayed that work of such poor standard has been published.” I wonder how the researchers justified this poor control to Dyslexia – maybe the good old excuse that ‘the dog ate my control group’?

This might sound bad for Dore, but that’s not the half of it – Bishop also takes apart Dore’s posited mechanism of action:

The gaping hole in the rationale for the Dore Programme is a lack of evidence that training on motor-coordination can have any influence on higher-level skills mediated by the cerebellum. If training eye–hand co-ordination, motor skill and balance caused generalised cerebellar development, then one should find a low rate of dyslexia and ADHD in children who are good at skateboarding, gymnastics or juggling. Yet several of the celebrity endorsements of the Dore programme come from professional sports people.

So, aside from lacking a plausible mechanism of action, and lacking good evidence of efficacy, Dore seems like a great idea. If that leaves anyone rushing to get out their cheque book, Bishop kicks the dead horse a few more times. It’s therefore also worth quoting Bishop’s key points about the Dore treatment:

1 The treatment offered by Dore Achievement Centres is being promoted as a “drug free” alternative to conventional treatment for ADHD, and as a ‘miracle cure’ for dyslexia. It is presented as having a neurological rationale and gains credibility by appearing to be medical treatment.
2 The publication of two papers in peer-reviewed scientific journal (Dyslexia) has been presented as giving further credibility to the treatment. However, the research community in this area has been dismayed that work of such poor standard has been published.
3 The research purporting to show efficacy of the treatment does not show sustained gains in literacy scores in treated vs. control children. Furthermore, the intervention has not been evaluated on the clinical groups for which it is recommended.

Ouch. If only more articles in science journals were like this – clear, well-written, and brutal in a rather entertaining way – they’d make much better weekend reading…

More Evidence for the Safety of Vaccines

29 Sep

This article was originally published at the NeuroLogica Blog and is re-published here with permission.

By Steven Novella, MD
NeuroLogica Blog

A new study just published in the New England Journal of Medicine, Early Thimerosal Exposure and Neuropsychological Outcomes at 7 to 10 Years, does not support a correlation between mercury in vaccines and neurological damage. It adds to the growing evidence that vaccines are safe and they do not cause neurological disorders. This study did not look at autism (a study that will be published next year looks, again, at vaccines and autism), but the mercury-causes-autism crowd are still unhappy with the results.

I have been following this issue closely for several years. Although my awareness of the issue goes back much farther, I started to seriously research the claim that the MMR vaccine, or that thimerosal in other vaccines, causes autism while researching an article on the topic for the New Haven Advocate. As a physician (a neurologist) and a skeptical activist I knew I had to get this issue right. I certainly did not want to falsely stoke the flames of public fear, nor did I want to cast myself in the role of denier.

Early on in my research I really did not know which way I was going to go with the issue. Should my bottom line be that there is real reason for concern here, that there is nothing to the claims, or that we really don’t know and will have to just wait for further research? But after reading through all the claims on both sides, and all the research, it was an easy call – vaccines, and specifically the MMR vaccine and thimerosal, do not cause autism, and the alleged autism “epidemic” is likely just an artifact. Those claiming there is a connection were drowning in conspiracy thinking, logical fallacies, and blatant pseudoscience. Meanwhile every piece of reliable clinical data was pointing in the same direction – no connection.

But still, while I was confident in my final conclusion, a small connection between mercury and autism that eluded the existing data could not be ruled out. Or perhaps there was an angle to the whole story that we were missing but would later come to light. I have had enough experience with scientific medicine to be humble in the face of the complexity of medicine and biology. The only rational position is to remain open to new data and new ideas. On this issue there was sure to be more studies in the future – and the ultimate test of the thimerosal-autism connection, the removal of thimerosal from the vaccine schedule, was yet to be seen. So I confidently plunked my nickel down and waited for the future to unfold.

Everyone likes being right, and sometimes this desire clouds our judgment. I have learned, therefore, how to cheat, which is to say how to always be right. All you have to do is say that your position is based upon the existing data, but is contingent upon the results of future studies. In other words, the “right” position is to change your final answer to accommodate new evidence as it comes in. Therefore the only “wrong” answer is to stick to your original position despite new evidence that contradicts it.

OK – so this is just restating how science is supposed to work, but it is amazing how many people forget to cover their behinds with this simple rule. Usually this is because they are not doing science – they are taking an ideological position, and ideology is inflexible. This is a huge advantage for science over ideology, and why, when science and ideology clash, science is almost always right.

In the case of vaccines and autism, since writing my first major article on the topic, the data has come in all consistent with my original position (so I get to be doubly right). Removing thimerosal from vaccines did not decrease the incidence of autism (or decrease the rate of increase in new diagnoses). And several new major studies came out all showing no association – not counting the utter crap being produced by the Geiers.

Enough had happened to warrant an update, so I jumped at the chance when Ken Frazier of the Skeptical Inquirer asked me to write an article on the topic. My article will be out in the next issue, along with a couple of smaller ones on the same topic, so take a look.

Alas, as is often the way in the world of science, my paper is outdated before it even goes to print. This new study, of course, will not be covered in the article. But that’s what blogs are for – instantaneous news and analysis.

Actually, several of my fellow science bloggers have already beat me to the punch. They cover the article, and the response to the article by the mercury crowd, in great detail, so I will not duplicate it here.

Orac at Respectful Insolence goes over the press release of A-CHAMP (one of the mercury militia) that attempts to dismiss the study. He shows that, while the study (like all studies) has its weaknesses, it does add significantly to the body of evidence showing that vaccines are safe. The complaints of A-CHAMP are either wrong, overblown, or inconsistent with their prior positions and shows that they are just trying to tear down the study at all costs.

For the record, I agree with Orac that the study is good enough that it’s conclusions add to the cumulative data on this topic, and that the weakest element of the study was the 30% compliance rate. In other words, only 30% of the subjects that they looked at for the study made it into the final analysis. This opens up the door for selection bias. Orac is probably correct that this bias would likely overestimate a correlation, not underestimate it, but you can never be sure with such things.

I will add that the 30% figure is not as bad as it first seems. The study reports:

Of 3648 children selected for recruitment, 1107 (30.3%) were tested. Among children who were not tested, 512 did not meet one or more of the eligibility criteria, 1026 could not be located, and 44 had scheduling difficulties; in addition, the mothers of 959 children declined to participate. Most of the mothers (68%) who declined to participate in the study and provided reasons for nonparticipation cited a lack of time; 13% reported distrust of or ambivalence toward research. Of the 1107 children who were tested, 60 were excluded from the final analysis for the following reasons: missing vaccination records, 1 child; missing prenatal records, 5; missing data regarding weight, 7; and discovery of an exclusionary medical condition during record abstraction, 47. Thus, 1047 children were included in the final analyses. The exposure distribution of the final sample was similar to the exposure distribution of the initial 3648 children selected for recruitment in the study.

So about 40% of those that did not make it into the final analysis simply could not be located – this is unlikely to represent a bias. But this is a small point.

Isles from Left Brain/Right Brain points out that Sallie Bernard (a believer in the mercury hypothesis) was consulted on the study design and execution and did not criticize its methods until after the results came back negative. That kind of behavior instantly sacrifices all your credibility in the science club.

Kristina Chew at AutismVox reiterates what I did above – that the mercury-causes-autism ideologues are always asking for more studies, but refuse to change their position when the studies they ask for come out. They are waiting for studies that show what they want them to show – we call that “cherry picking.”

The other side is busy too. David Kirby (a bad journalist who desperately wants to be a bad scientist), who wrote the book Evidence of Harm, published an article online in that absolute rag, The Huffington Post (to be fair, they also published this piece by Arthur Allen defending the paper’s conclusions). Kirby repeats all the same points in the A-CHAMP press release, but he emphasizes the fact that the study found some neurological symptoms that were higher in the subjects who received more thimerosal. Kirby proceeds to completely misinterpret the significance of this.

The study looked at 42 different outcomes, and set the p-value for significance at 0.05. A vague concept of basic math should be sufficient to see that some outcomes will reach significance by chance alone. The researchers arguably should have adjusted their statistics to account for the fact that they were looking at 42 variables – but instead they just looked at all the outcomes that were significant to see if there were any patterns or trends. What they found was that there were a few scores that were worse among those exposed to more thimerosal, but there were also a few scores that were better. There was a random distribution of positive and negative effects that essentially average out to no net effect. It’s all just noise. (Is there a small signal hiding in the noise? There could be – scientists have to be honest about that. But that doesn’t mean there is.)

What Kirby does is not just really dumb, it’s despicable. He cherry picks all the negative (meaning bad) neurological outcomes and pretends that the study shows a correlation (it doesn’t, when you look at ALL the data). He then tries to dismiss the positive (good) outcomes as absurd. He mockingly writes:

If they (the CDC) really mean that thimerosal increases IQ levels in males, then sign me up for a double-dose flu shot this year.

No, David, they don’t mean that. Not by any stretch of the imagination. It takes incompetent statistical analysis or the blindness of ideology to write something so ridiculous. What the CDC means is that the study does NOT show that thimerosal increases IQ, nor that it causes motor tics, or improve motor skills, or decrease language skills, or anything else. The study showed no correlations because it all averaged out as noise.

This is, by the way, the same mistake that astrologers make (remember that crusty pseudoscience?). They look at many variables then cherry pick the outliers. At best what this study might show is a possible correlation, but any such possible correlation would have to be corroborated by a later study (with fresh data) that looked specifically at that one variable.

So the pattern that I found when I first started looking at this issue – that all the reliable data was on the side of no correlation between vaccines or mercury and autism or neurological disorders – continues to hold up to new data. The other pattern I noticed – that those promoting a correlation were relying on bad science, logical fallacies, and ad hoc conspiracy claims – also continues to hold.

In the last few years every new study showed no correlation, and the mercury militia responded with abject nonsense and dismissal. This cycle seems to be repeating itself over and over, and this latest study is no exception.

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