At least, that is what Science Daily has to say about a new study out of Exeter and Bristol. And with a title like that, you have to imagine people will jump on it and claim that the title says that the increase is real (read it again, it doesn’t say that at all).
From Science Daily:
“There is no doubt that the reported prevalence of autistic spectrum disorders has increased spectacularly over the last 20 years,” said Ms Russell. “Medical consensus is that the increase is not a ‘real’ increase in cases but is the result of the diagnosis being made more often.
“But our examination of letters and phone calls received by scientists carrying out research into the environmental causes of autism shows that, in the opinion of many people in contact with autistic children, it is not diagnosis but true incidence which has increased, and these people think that we should be investigating what factors have led to this increase. They believe that it goes hand in hand with lifestyle changes in the late 20th and early 21st century, changes which are causing autistic spectrum disorders to occur more often.”
Let’s take a look at the abstract from the actual study, shall we?
ABSTRACT
Introduction There has been a dramatic increase in the prevalence of autistic spectrum disorders (ASD) in the last 20 years. The reasons for this are disputed. The consensus among epidemiologists and other experts is that greater case load is due to changes in diagnostic practice rather than reflecting changing aetiological factors leading to a true increase in incidence. We set out to examine lay views concerning the aetiology and prevalence of ASD and whether they conflict with or support this consensus position.
Methods Over 100 unsolicited communications (letters e mails and several telephone calls) were received by a UK epidemiological study of ASD. We carried out a qualitative analysis of all correspondence in order to examine spontaneously expressed lay beliefs about the prevalence and aetiology of ASD.
Results The majority of correspondents suggested theories about environmental causes of ASD. This study demonstrates the strength of lay belief that the true incidence of autism is rising, and this is due to risks from modern technologies and changing lifestyles.
Conclusion This study based on unsolicited data highlights the contrast between lay explanations of increasing prevalence and the consensus opinion of medical experts. It also demonstrates how many people in direct contact with ASD have important information to share.
Yes, they read emails and letters and logged phone calls and came to the conclusion that many people in contact with autistics think that the increase is real.
I am stunned this got published. Maybe I am too close to the subject, but the idea that many non-researchers in the autism communities think the increase is real is, well, far from surprising.
For now, let’s just acknoweldge what is said and what is not said in the paper. They say that non-researchers believe the increase is real. They do not say the increase is real.



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