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Andrew Wakefield backs down

4 Jan

A quick catch-up: After Andrew Wakefield did his MMR thing, journalist Brian Deer published a report in the Times that highlighted Wakefield’s dodgy involvement in the whole scandal.

When 13 doctors from London’s Royal Free hospital, including Andrew Wakefield, announced the research in the Lancet at a heavily-promoted press conference in February 1998, it triggered a slump in immunizations and a rise in outbreaks of infectious diseases. But the key finding was a sham: laundering anonymized allegations against MMR by claimants in a multibillion lawsuit against the vaccine’s makers – which Wakefield, behind the scenes, was backing

Brian uncovered a shocking amount of misconduct from Wakefield, so much so that Channel 4 television’s ‘Dispatches’ investigative program launched a special that showed that amongst other things, Wakefield had applied for a rival patent to MMR.

Please visit his site for all the truly shocking shenanigans.

Wakefield’s response was to launch libel suits against Brian Deer, Channel 4 and The Times during which time he was steadfast, as his wife describes:

‘Whatever his enemies may hope, he’s not going away,’ she vows.

In November 2005, it became apparent that Wakefield was beginning to ‘go away’. He had applied for a stay of one action (a pause in proceedings) and, as I blogged at the time, was trying to use this stay as a cudgel to beat down people reporting on the Times/Channel4/Deer investigation – this was sent to the Cambridge Evening News by Wakefield’s legal team:

You should be aware that proceedings in defamation have already been commenced against The Sunday Times in respect of the article published by Mr Brian Deer on 22nd February 2004. Your article has gone even further than the allegation in The Sunday Times which are currently being litigated and allege impropriety on the part of Mr Wakefield to receive money from lawyers to achieve a predetermined outcome…

However, the actual story was that Wakefield had also applied for a stay in these proceedings too. Justice Eady who was presiding over the decision to stay proceeding said this of the attempt to browbeat the Cambridge Evening News:

In my view that paragraph was misleading. Mr Browne (Wakefield’s QC) argues that, even if the circumstances had been set out more fully and accurately, it would have made no difference to the outcome. The editor would still have acknowledged that he had got his facts wrong. That may be, but the important point at the moment is that the editor was given a misleading impression. Because of the stay, to which I have referred, the allegations in The Sunday Times were certainly not “currently being litigated”. They were stayed pending the outcome of serious allegations of professional misconduct against the Claimant, to which no reference was made. It thus appears that the Claimant wishes to use the existence of the libel proceedings for public relations purposes, and to deter other critics, while at the same time isolating himself from the “downside” of such litigation, in having to answer a substantial defence of justification.

Justice Eady declined Wakefields request to stay further proceedings:

I have come to the conclusion, bearing all these considerations in mind, that the interests of the administration of justice require that the Channel 4 proceedings should not be stayed pending the outcome of the GMC proceedings. I appreciate that there will be an increased workload for the Claimant’s advisers, but I do not have any reason to suppose that the firm is incapable of absorbing that extra burden. It is, after all, their client who chose to issue these proceedings and to use them, as I have described above, as a weapon in his attempts to close down discussion and debate over an important public issue

Quite.

Of course, the poor old Cambridge Evening News, being a small local newspaper had already issued a retraction. Brave Mr Wakefield read the retraction out to wild applause at the 2005 Power of Truth rally.

However, its not been the best start to 2007 for Andrew Wakefield. On 31st December 2006, Brian published an article in the Times that demonstrated that Andrew Wakefield had been paid approaching half a million pounds to conduct his MMR investigation for lawyers. This runs contrary to the bottomless claim by Wakefield’s apologists who told the BBC he hadn’t.

And now it seems like its going to be an ‘annus horribilis‘ for Wakefield – the man who once claimed that there would be an established proven link between MMR and autism in 2002 – as Brian has now received news that, contrary to the claims of his wife, Wakefield has indeed, ‘run away’.

Following Brian Deer’s Dispatches investigation of November 2004, reporting facts about Andrew Wakefield and his campaign against the MMR vaccine, which a judge described as “of considerable public interest and concern” that “went to the heart” of the British former surgeon’s “honesty and professional integrity”, Wakefield initiated libel proceedings. Two years later, after the disclosure of a mass of documents, including medical records, he dropped his claim, and agreed to pay the defendants’ costs

Amazing how a sudden disclosure of documents can prompt such a turn around isn’t it? I wonder what his supporters will find as an excuse for this hasty change of mind?

Follow the money

31 Dec

Regularly whenever I read about some nefarious plot by Big Pharma to use vaccines to take over the world/cause autism/incite riots/insert crap of your choice here, the writer exhorts the reader to ‘follow the money’ as a phrase to indicate that the evil, money grubbers at Big Pharma can have their actions rationalised by seeing how much they might gain from the particular conspiracy theory under discussion. Of course, very rarely can these writers actually name an individual at Big Pharma or an alleged ‘payout’ they are getting.

Luckily, Times reporter Brian Deer is an _actual_ reporter – i.e. one who investigates his findings and sources his facts. Today he published the findings of his latest investigation into Andrew Wakefield and the associated people that support his vaccine/autism/legal financial business.

Brian has basically found that UK tax payer funded legal aid to the sum of _£3.4m_ was spent (wasted might be a better word) on payments to doctors and scientists who had been recruited to support a now failed lawsuit against vaccine manufacturers. This information wasn’t submitted voluntarily, Brian had to submit a Freedom of Information request in order to unearth the figures. There are some notable names on the list:

Andrew Wakefield: £439,553. Quite profitable to start vaccine litigation isn’t it? Seems that you can fleece the British tax payer to the tune of nearly half a million quid. Follow the money indeed.

But is good old Wakers alone? Oh no, this money making machine had a few members, some familiar names to this blog:

Dr Ken Aitken, Scottish DAN! Doctor: £232,022. After resigning under a cloud from his role at Royal Hospital for Sick Children, Edinburgh, Aitken gladly signed up for this gravy train which seems to have netted him nearly a quarter of a million quid of tax payers money. In 2004, Aitken was severely reprimanded by the British Psychological Society concerning his handling of an autistic child’s case. The society’s conduct committee said that he “allowed his professional responsibilities or standards of practice to be diminished by considerations of extraneous factors”.

Peter Fletcher: £39,960. I wrote a blog entry about Peter Fletcher’s anti-MMR strawmen awhile ago. Here’s a quote from him:

There are very powerful people in positions of great authority in Britain and elsewhere who have staked their reputations and careers on the safety of MMR and they are willing to do almost anything to protect themselves.

You can say that again.

And on it goes:

Arthur Krigsman, Business partner of Andrew Wakefield: £16,986. His unpublished ‘papers’ have been cited numerous times by Wakefield and supporters as evidence Wakefield was right, conveniently forgetting they were a) unpublished and b) written for his boss. According to Brian (see link in Aitken paragraph), in December 2004, he left Lennox Hill hospital, New York,after a lawsuit, which was followed by an ethics inquiry. In August 2005, he was fined $5,000 by the Texas Medical Board for misconduct. Gotta try and recoup some of that money somewhere eh?

Jeff Bradstreet: £21,600. Bradstreet – who recommends exorcism for autism – snapped up Wakefield as Director of his business after Wakefield was booted out of the Royal Free.

Mark Geier: £7,052. We could write a whole book on the Geier’s and their dubious practices. Luckily, Kathleen has documented most of them already. Suffice it to say, Geier shouldn’t be offering legal expert advice to anyone.

See some more notables on Brian’s personal site.

Brian’s report in the Times also states:

…among those named as being paid from the legal aid fund was a referee for one of Wakefield’s papers, who was allowed £40,000…

Which is an interesting position as Wakefield is on record as stating:

You cannot referee your own soccer matches. It’s like asking the Italians to — an Italian referee to take over the game of Italy between South Korea. It doesn’t work. Can’t do it. You have to separate those agencies that endorse and mandate vaccines and those who monitor safety. One needs to be on the back of the other all the time in order to check on safety.

Quite. That same principle also works against you Mr Wakefield. Back-handers to referee’s of your papers makes you an Italian throwing a bung to an Italian referee. Follow the money.

Also according to the LSC (who oversee administration of Legal Aid) A private GP who runs a single vaccines clinic received £6,000. Follow the money.

What the hell are the LSC playing at? They have a £2billion per year budget in order to provide legal services to people who can’t afford to retain a lawyer. Once that money is spent, its spent. Apparently, they’ve already:

acknowledged that the attempt to make a case against MMR with taxpayers’ money was “not effective or appropriate”.

Understatement of they year!

One of the legal aid recipients, John March has broken ranks to speak out against what has happened:

“There was a huge conflict of interest,” said Dr John March, an animal vaccine specialist who was among those recruited. “It bothered me quite a lot because I thought, well, if I’m getting paid for doing this, then surely it’s in my interest to keep it going as long as possible.”

I doubt March was alone in his thinking.

Wakefield has circulated a pitiful defence of his antics stating that these monies were received over a period of nine years and that after tax and ‘out of pocket expenses’ which he failed to detail or summarise he donated the money to charity. What a saint. The point, of course, is entirely missed. It doesn’t matter what you did with it Mr Wakefield, the point is that you got it. I hear tell some religious heroin dealers in Columbia donate some of their profit to churches. Big deal – they’re still crooks.

According to Brian’s report, at least one MP is calling for a an inquiry into how exactly this could’ve come about and a Lib Dem MP is quoted as saying:

“These figures are astonishing,” said Dr Evan Harris, Liberal Democrat MP for Oxford West and Abingdon. “This lawsuit was an industry, and an industry peddling what turned out to be a myth.”

Couldn’t have put it better myself.

More reading

Diva, Mike, Orac and Anthony.

Autism extremists

28 Dec

There is a lot wrong with the UK in terms of provision for autistic people and education about what autism is to the mainstream. One of the things that isn’t quite right is the National Autistic Society. It’s numerous flaws include a lack of autistic people at policy making level.

But you know what? It knows this about itself and is trying to change. It is also a deeply responsible society. It carries a link to this PDF on its data pages. This article is a short ‘what is…’ guide that explains clearly what people should look for in a decent science paper and why these things are important. Peer review is discussed, as is the importance of publication in a respected journal. I strongly urge people to download this and pass it on to any parent or interested researcher. Its a great, non-technical, helpful and clear article.

By contrast, the US Autism Society of America (which is obviously in a battle with Autism Speaks as its strapline is ‘the voice of autism’) seems to have taken a step further down the road to quackery. In the latest issue of its ‘Advocate’ magazine, it included a number of interviews with such mercury militia stalwarts as Mady Hornig, JB Handley, Dan Olmsted and Martha Herbert. It also included a ‘how-to recover autistic children’ guide from ARI (home of the DAN! docs). Of note was the trumpeting of a new treatment option I hadn’t seen before:

Medical Marijuana to control aggression…

So if your autistic child is acting up, give ’em an illegal Class C narcotic….is this really the periodical of the most mainstream autism organisation in the USA? Giving space to people who want to push illegal drugs to kids?

I’m not going to pretend I’ve made it through 37 years of life without imbibing the odd narcotic but I was an adult, making my own informed choices. These people are trying to suggest that its OK to give these things to kids. Incredible.

I’ve discovered some of the most informed, considerate and knowledgeable people in the US. I’ve also discovered some of the most frightening, genuinely ignorant (and desirous of that state) people in the US.

Every now and then I can’t hold back from posting to web forums that discuss autism. I did that just before Christmas at a web forum that I’ve now stopped posting at again – it reaches such a fever pitch of idiocy that you think ‘what’s the point?’ And of course, people mail me every so often to point out something dumber than usual that that poster boy for assholery John Best has posted. I stopped reading John’s blog awhile ago for the same reason – the people who post there aren’t interested in debate or enlightenment. They desire their state of ignorance. Well, a quick toke on what DAN! promote those days should help with that!

But anyway, a quick example of one of the more extreme people who post at both these places (I didn’t know until today that this person posts at John’s blog but it wasn’t a surprise) is a poster called ‘dgdavies’ – real name Diane. I find her utterly fascinating and repulsive at the same time.

I found out via her that there is a conspiracy to somehow tie in the vaccine/autism hypothesis to the 11/9 WTC terrorism (which, by the way, was orchestrated by an internal agency according to her). She was, understandably, not clear on the details but she was adamant.

I found out via her that the vaccine/autism hypothesis could well be an Illuminati plot as suggested by FAIR Autism Media wacko David Ayoub.

Her latest fascinating conspiracy theory is that (and this truly is an awe inspiring piece of self delusion) is that the diagnostic criteria for autism was widened at the last DSM revision _in order to ‘hide’ the mercury poisoned hordes_ .

I hear tell, that like John Best himself, Diane doesn’t believe in evolution.

Is this the legacy of Bernie Rimland? A bunch of whacked out stoners swapping addled stories? Pass the hash pipe dude.

There’s also the small matter of at least one ARI DAN doctor being a paedophile, another being very closely associated with a convicted paedophile, DAN doctors belonging to cults like Scientology and, of course, the DAN! hierarchy happy to accept killers. These aren’t conspiracy theories. These are established facts. Why have these people been given any time at all in a supposed mainstream autism publication?

David Kirby – what have you done?

20 Dec

I want to follow up somewhat on Joseph’s techncial takedown of David Kirby’s recent act of intellectual suicide. On the Huffington Post he wrote a bewildering post called ‘Bad News for Mercury Defenders‘ which discussed how Dan Olmsted’s recent sleuth-like skills led him to talking about a report that undermined studies conducted using VSD data.

Let us begin:

Next June, when the Vaccine Trial of the Century gets underway in Federal Claims Court, government lawyers will defend the direct injection of toxic mercury into infant children by repeating the well-worn mantra that “five large population studies” in Europe and the US have completely exonerated the vaccine preservative thimerosal as a possible cause of autism.

My, my – vaccine trial of the century eh? I’ll have to remember that one when the verdict comes back. This is crap. No lawyer will have to defend the direct injection of mercury into infant children. What they will have to do is counter the accusation that thiomersal in vaccines caused autism. Kirby (as usual) presents a highly distorted view to his adoring fans. The truth is that as in all legal cases, the burden of proof lies on those making the accusation. The accusation is not that mercury is dangerous. the accusation is that it caused autism.

Again:

The VSD study is constantly held up by public health officials as EXHIBIT A in the defense of injecting mercury into little kids.

No, its not. If its held up as anything, its held up as a study that refutes the link between thiomersal in vaccines and autism. Seriously – isn’t this man a journalist? What’s difficult to grasp about this concept?

Kirby goes on to diss the remaining studies and surmises this section of his blog thusly:

With so many holes shot through their “five large studies” defense, the government lawyers will be left to argue that autism is purely genetic, that there is no environmental component, and that the rates of illness have not “really” gone up. We are simply better at recognizing and diagnosing the disorder, that’s all.

Well, if that is the case, the mercury-defense lawyers should have no problem proving it. All they need do is produce irrefutable evidence that 1-in-166 American adults of ALL ages (and 1-in-104 men) fall somewhere within the autism spectrum disorder, at the same rate as kids. But they can’t, and they won’t.

I can only surmise that Kirby is a big fan of the Wizard of Oz and had strawmen on his mind whilst writing this. Yet _again_ he fails to grasp the fact that what this trial is about is simply if thiomersal caused autism. All the vaccine makers have to do is refute the ‘science’ from the other side. And lets be honest, after the RhoGAM smackdown that’s going to be about as difficult as falling off a log. It’ll be surprising if any of the ‘scientific’ evidence ever gets past a Daubert hearing as it failed to do in the RhoGAM case.

And whilst we’re at it, no one has said anything about arguing autism is purely genetic. Why in Gods name would _that_ be required? Autism may well have an environmental component – I know I think it does – but unless Kirby is trying to say that the word ‘environment’ is interchangable with the word ‘vaccine’ then this is also just…meaningless.

And lets get back to the clinical science for a moment:

Instead, one must also consider biological studies (animal, clinical, test tube) when assessing causation. And that’s where the plaintiffs will come to court armed with reams of published evidence – produced at Harvard, Columbia, Davis, etc., and printed in prestigious journals – to suggest a highly plausible biological mechanism that would link a known neurotoxin with a neuro-developmental disorder

Has no one broken the news of the thiomersal/RHOGam/autism case to Kirby? _All_ the ‘science’ that Kirby is talking about here was brought to that trial (follow the link and you can download the entire Daubert findings and read the studies presented for yourself) and was cumulatively dismissed. Here’s what the presiding Judge stated:

However, upon being subjected to extensive cross examination, much of Dr. Geier’s analysis, based upon his collective review of a motley assortment of diverse literature, proved, in the Court’s view, to be overstated……[Dr. Geier] could not point to a single study that conclusively determined that any amount of mercury could cause the specific neurological disorder of autism.

So, that’s exactly what effect eliminating VSD based studies will have on the respondents case. None whatsoever.

But what about the plaintiffs? They have to prove beyond reasonable doubt that thiomersal in vaccines caused autism. And as Kirby helpfully points out:

….They wanted to know if the US database, the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), could be used to compare autism rates in kids before, during, and after the gradual removal of thimerosal, which began in roughly 2000.

Unfortunately, the answer was a resounding “not really.” A laundry list of “weaknesses” and “limitations” associated with the database would render such a comparative analysis “uninformative and potentially misleading,” the panel said, (though it did suggest some excellent ways to re-approach the data going into the future).

Some weaknesses had to do with changes in medical practices over time. But many of the limitations sprang directly from the poorly designed VSD study itself….

So what studies could be killed off by this examination. Well, there are two actually. The first one is Verstraeten et al (2000) which is the one we’ve been discussing so far and Kirby’s been bashing. The other one is Geier and Geier (2005) which they plagiarised from Verstraeten et al (2000). Oops.

Why does the nuking of Geier matter whilst the nuking of Verstraeten does not? Burden of proof, which lies with the prosecution. The Geier paper will be used to help _establish_ causation which is vital, not prove it didn’t happen, which is not called for. The Geier paper (which was crap anyway, lets face it) has now been neatly and effectively taken out by Olmsted and Kirby. Don’t Americans refer to that as friendly fire? By removing Geier 2005 from the playing field, the prosecution are now left with clinical science which has already failed one Daubert hearing (I believe the legal term is ‘setting a precedent’) and any epidemiological data they can scrape together from VAERS and CDDS.

As far as VAERS go, I’d like to remind people of my own experimentation with VAERS. And as far as CDDS data goes, lets remind ourselves one more time what Kirby has said about CDDS data:

“if the total number of 3-5 year olds in the California DDS system has not declined by 2007, that would deal a severe blow to the autism-thimerosal hypothesis.”….total cases among 3-5 year olds, not changes in the rate of increase is the right measure.

And here, helpfully provided by Dad of Cameron are the ever-growing numbers in that cohort.

There’s also the small matter of The Simpsonwood Conspiracy. To quote Joseph:

….it completely undermines the foundations of the Simpsonwood conspiracy theory. You see, Verstraeten et al. were supposed to have found significant associations between thimerosal and neurodevelopmental outcomes beyond those that were reported in 2003. But now Kirby is endorsing a NIH report which says that ecological studies on the VSD database, specifically those done by Verstraeten et al., are likely flawed.

In other words, without the VSD data being good, the Simpsonwood Conspiracy is a non-starter.

Amazing.

Just Sayin’ Part VI

19 Dec

Unstrange Minds

17 Dec

Unstrange Minds is a book from George Washington University Professor of Anthropology – and Dad to Isabel, his autistic daughter, Roy Richard Grinker about autism, its history as a diagnosis and how it exists as a cultural phenomenon in other (non-Westernised) countries.

Epidemic

The first thing that Unstrange Minds does is quietly and comprehensively dismantle the idea of there having been an autism epidemic in the sense of that concept relating to a sudden, massive increase.

The shift in how we view autism….is part of a broader set of shifts taking place in society.
Page 4

Grinker goes on to take the reader through the often fascinating history of autism as a diagnostic label (Kanner is pronounced ‘connor’ – who knew??) to illustrate his theory of the apparent rise in autism prevalence being intrinsically linked to these cultural changes such as the growth in child psychology as an area of practice, the decline of psychoanalysis, the rise of advocacy organisations, greater public awareness to educational needs and change in pubic policies:

Doctors now have a more heightened awareness of autism and are diagnosing it with more frequency, and public schools….which first started using the category of autism during the 1991 – 1992 school year are reporting it more often….Epidemiologists are also counting it better.
Page 4

Grinker then goes on to make a similar point to the one that Paul Shattuck was making earlier this year:

Still, these rates may not be proof of an epidemic. Why? Because the old rates were either inaccurate….or based on different definitions of autism than the ones we use now.
Page 4 – 5

The point about different definitions of autism contributing to the ‘rise’ in autism prevalence is frequently dismissed by the mercury militia et al but Grinker has collated the ever changing face of the DSM on the books accompanying website and it graphically demonstrates his point.

Autism Abroad

Unstrange Minds is one of the first academically rigorous books (that I know of) that takes a look at how autism is perceived outside the Western experience. Grinker looks in depth at Korea and India. The picture is not always pretty but it does provide a striking example of how the old adage about ‘out of sight, out of mind’ can contribute to a cultural perception that autism is something unmissable. Those who believe in an epidemic of autism often state that it is ‘impossible’ to miss people with autism. They should consider Grinker’s experience in Korea:

When [Milal School] was being built in the mid-1990s, some of the wealthy residents of this quiet neighborhood south of the Kangnam River in Seoul picketed the site, cut the school’s phone lines, physically assaulted school administrators, and filed a lawsuit to halt construction, because they believed that the presence in the neighborhood of children with disabilities would lower property values. The school opened in 1997, but only with a compromise. It was required to alter its architecture so that the children were completely hidden from public view. Some of the protestors were brutally honest. They said they didn’t want their children to see or meet a child with autism.

If we believe this type of situation and deliberate obfuscation of autism has never occurred in the West than we are kidding ourselves. The situation in Korea now, is how we were in the West once upon a time. This theme is explored thoroughly by Grinker. Remove the places names and this could be London of the 1970’s or New York of the 80’s:

In Seoul, a city of eleven million people, the story is different. There is invisibility in numbers. Posed to an adult, the question ‘Do you know any children who don’t speak well?’ usually goes unanswered, partly because people are reluctant to talk about such things for fear of shaming the child’s family. Equally, people with autism are sometimes hidden away, often go untreated and are seldom integrated into community life.
Page 233

Grinker offers an anecdote from his own life with his autistic daughter Isabel that shows how this wish to exclude difference still turns up in Western culture, even today. A camp director phoned the Grinkers with news that Isabel had ‘took her clothes off in the classroom and the mother of another girl is demanding your daughter be removed from the class’. The camp director had not spoken to the teacher and after he had it transpired that Isabel had merely taken her arms out of her sleeves and put them under her shirt because the air conditioning was on high. It was clear that the whole situation had been contrived by the parent of the other child and indeed, when the camp refused to place Isabel in another class, this same mother withdrew her child (pages 273 – 274).

Autism At Home

The sections of the book directly concerning Isabel are my favourite. My role as dad to an autistic girl makes me appreciate the anecdotes and clear stories of love that other dads of autistic girls convey. The Grinkers don’t shy away from the bad side as well as the good side and detail the battles with American educational authorities that echoed our own battles with our LEA (an ongoing battle even today) to even be recognised as needing such services.

Grinker’s anecdotes about his family (like me, his home life is female oriented with a wife and two daughters) are too poignant and contextual to share and quote well but believe me, they are the lifeblood of the book, making the academic discussion real to parents and people who are autistic.

The author Ron Suskind called Unstrange Minds:

…this big-hearted, uplifting, fiercely rigorous book-a genuine gift to readers who believe in the power of truth.

which is exactly right. It is firmly committed to the truth. It is committed to a rigorous examination of how and why we came to think of autism as having ‘an epidemic’ and explaining how cultural beliefs led us to this stance. It is however also brave, kind, hopeful and above all real. Not a dusty anthropological tome in any way, Unstrange Minds is written in engaging style by a writer who clearly finds his subject fascinating and who has a deep cultural as well as deep personal knowledge of how autism exists as a type of existence as well as a diagnostic label.

Its available on pre-order from Amazon.com only. Don’t let that stop you. Pre-order it from the US no matter where you live. The extra air-mail fare is well worth it. I read the whole thing in two weeks worth of train journeys to and from work and very nearly missed my stop more than once due to being utterly absorbed. Buy it. Read it. Enjoy it.

RFK Jr – Hold yourself to account

8 Dec

Last year, RFK Jr published his shlock piece Deadly Immunity.

Its been taken apart more times than a Lego castle (a good list exists on Skeptico’s site) and was so bad that it contained more than five factual corrections, posted after initial publication.

One of the more amusing bits of idiocy that Kennedy spouted was that:

Even more alarming, the government continues to ship vaccines preserved with thimerosal to developing countries – some of which are now experiencing a sudden explosion in autism rates. In China, where the disease was virtually unknown prior to the introduction of thimerosal by U.S. drug manufacturers in 1999, news reports indicate that there are now more than 1.8 million autistics.

This prompted a flurry of comments from the more credulous element on my blog:

John Best:

Maybe the genetic stuff you found has to do with susceptibility to mercury. I heard from a couple of people in China but it was a long time ago. I didn’t hear back from their government.

We’ll get better information on China someday and they’ll be jumping all over us when they figure out we poisoned them with thimerosal. Maybe that’ll start WWIII.

Sue M (attempting levity):

This is Julie Gerberding. I really need Anders Hviid to make a trip to China ASAP. We really could use some help over there. Yes, the sooner the better. Denial it ain’t just a river in Africa…

(and quoting David Kirby from EoH):

Autism has rarely been reported outside of industrialized countries, at least until recent years. A good example is China, where companies such as Merck and Glaxo-SmithKline have begun an aggressive pediatric marketing campaign, selling millions of dollars in vaccines to the Communist Government” – David Kirby

What do you want to do, start injecting children all over again with the large quantities of thimerosal that we have seen in the past? Oh, wait, we’re actually doing experiments like that overseas. I guess we can just wait and see how those turn out. Not so good, so far as seen by the rates of autism in China.

Erik Nanstiel:

The World Health Organization is distributing vaccines with the full amount of thimerosal all around the world. For the first time ever, China is seeing fast-growing numbers of autistics…

See what’s happening in China, Africa and the Middle east? Their autism numbers are growing at an alarming rate…but only since the WHO began distributing thimerosal-laced vaccines in those countries.

So here’s all these people lapping up every word RFK Jr rehashed from David Kirby….oh if only someone had thought to ask the Chinese. Luckily, they came to us:

There are an estimated five million autistic residents in China, including some 650,000 with serious symptoms, said Jiao Min, doctor with the Zhengzhou Children’s Hospital. Nearly 800,000 are below 14 years old.

Now, wait, wait just a minute….if I take 14 away from 2006, does that come to 1999? Hmmm – no. How very odd.

And – hang on here – apparently 800,000 from a population of 5,000,000 are under 14. That leaves 4,200,000 who are over fourteen.

Listening to grandstanding politicians and bad journo’s can be very bad for your credibility.

Just Sayin’ Part V

7 Dec

Porphyrins, autism and enviromental militia

4 Dec

You know those nature programs where they film sharks in a feeding frenzy? That’s what I’m reminded of when a new test or treatment appears on the radar of the mercury militia. First there’s one lone parent taking a chomp but after a few minutes there’s a whole school of them twisting, turning, biting indiscriminatingly.

Porphyrins are the New Big Thing amongst the mercury militia. Never mind that the sole paper that exists on the subject (pertaining to autism) contradicts the Holy Edicts of DAN! and also fails to note that some forms of chelation affect how Porphyrin’s are measured and further, that the lead author of the study acknowledges the substantial grey areas and unaddressed discrepancies in the paper. Full steam ahead Jeeves and don’t spare the horses.

In a nutshell, these people believe that Porphyrins can be used to give a very accurate measure of how much mercury (or other metals) are in someone’s system. They send their kids wee off to a lab in France to be analysed at €80 a pop. The French test is considered the best as they test for Precoproporphyrin which is supposed to be a specific marker of mercury. Never mind the fact that only one scientist has ever found this association.

So how’s it panning out for the mercury boys and girls? Here’s a series of quotes from the Yahoo ChelatingKids2 Email Group:

A fellow listmate had her son tested twice– once over the summer which showed he had no elevated metals, and one this fall that showed he did indeed have elevated metal levels. She has sent an email to the lab asking about the differing results and has not received a response. I believe she is still trying to contact them.

FWIW, my neighbor’s dad happens to be a porphyrin specialist here in Boston (believe it or not– how many of those are there??). He reviewed lots of info for me– Nataf’s paper, my son’s results that showed very elevated metals across the board– and said he would have rejected the paper for publication had he been asked to review it. He said that fecal, not urine, should be used to measure the porphyrin levels. I sent an email to the lab inquiring about this and also received no response.

It concerns me that if someone does one test and goes on those results, do we know that those are accurate. I hate the idea of implementing treatment on a child based on less than accurate info. It is hard to GET good info I realize on the toxicity issue but just wondering if this is reliable enough to trigger chelating a child etc.

The answer is ‘no’. Here’s another one:

I just received the results of the French porphyrin test for myself and my 7 year old NT daughter, and the results also show severe lead and mercury toxicity. My daughters numbers are worse than my ASD son!

Sadly, this parent was considering chelating her NT daughter anyway even though….

My daughter is terrified of oral capsules and blood draws after seeing what her brother goes through

I’ll bet.

What’s the cut off point when an honest desire to help someone based on love for them and sound science to underpin your decision becomes a dangerous chasing after any sort of unproven treatment no matter what the consequences might be?

The scientist and author Michael Crichton once gave a speech about environmental issues that may as well have applied to the autism/vaccine issue:

We are basing our decisions on speculation, not evidence. Proponents are pressing their views with more PR than scientific data. Indeed, we have allowed the whole issue to be politicized—red vs blue, Republican vs Democrat. This is in my view absurd. Data aren’t political. Data are data. Politics leads you in the direction of a belief. Data, if you follow them, lead you to truth.

Increasingly it seems facts aren’t necessary, because the tenets….are all about belief. It’s about whether you are going to be a sinner, or saved. Whether you are going to be one of the people on the side of salvation, or on the side of doom. Whether you are going to be one of us, or one of them.

That’s sad, worrying, dangerous. And true. When did we start to let PR driven media become more important and carry more weight than scientific fact? When papers scream headlines about the evils of mercury causing autism what is it about the apocalyptic way the story is written that catches attention? We live in a world where we think we see threats at every turn. This is a world where I cannot videotape my kids school plays any more as its considered ‘a security risk’. This is a world that now exists in biblical terms like ‘terror alerts’ and ‘axis of evil’. No one conditioned to this hysteria is going to listen to the scientists simply repeating the fact that no science supports such an assertion. That won’t give us a fix of melodrama – maybe if we portray these scientists as part of a global conspiracy that might quicken our terror-conditioned pulses a bit.

There are people who get their ‘facts’ not from scientists but from people like this man – an American DJ names Don Imus. He is, apparently, an autism advocate. He also seems to be something of a racist bigot.

If I have wishes for Christmas its that we stop listening to hyped-up media merchants like the odious Mr Imus and start listening to actual scientists regarding autism and its causes.

Jock Doubleday’s $75,000 vaccine offer

27 Nov

Jock Doubleday, author of such excellent works as ‘The Burning Time (Stories of the Modern-day Persecution of Midwives)’ and ‘Lolita Shrugged (THE MYTH OF AGE-SPECIFIC MATURITY )’ (Jock is a middle aged man by the way) is most famous in the autism community as the creator of the $75,000 vaccine offer in which he;

…offers $75,000.00 to the first medical doctor or pharmaceutical company CEO who publicly drinks a mixture of standard vaccine additives ingredients in the same amount as a six-year-old child is recommended to receive under the year-2005 guidelines of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (In the event that thimerosal has recently been removed from a particular vaccine, the thimerosal-containing version of that vaccine will be used.)

The mixture will be body weight calibrated.

Doubleday claims;

14 doctors, or persons claiming to be doctors, have contacted me about publicly drinking the vaccine additives mixture. None have followed through.

Nobody seems sure why participants have to be doctors or big pharma CEO’s and not ordinary folks like you and me. I’m also not sure why Doubleday insists on such a bizarre contract that any participant must adhere to, including psychiatric evaluation, a history of any mental health based counselling (these are probably to add to the air of drama), an email exam of 10 questions regarding vaccine theory and history, the compulsory purchase and reading of at last five altie books on anti-vaccine woo, a 20 question written exam, a certificate of good health…oh, I give up read the rest here.

To be honest, I got bored just reading that contract. And that’s only Part A. If I was a more cynical man I’d say that’s not so much of a contract as an endurance test designed to make everyone with an actual life of their own say ‘Sod this, I could be having a curry or watching Father Ted‘, both of which are activities much more interesting and enjoyable than satisfying the terms of that contract. But then the same could be said of watching paint dry.

Of course, the point of all this is that it shows how few people are willing to ‘take the challenge’. Luckily for Doubleday, someone already ‘took the challenge’ in 1996.

Clinical course of severe poisoning with thiomersal, published by the then Journal of Toxicology – Clinical Toxicology (now just called Clinical Toxicology) was the case study of a German 44 year old man who ingested 5g Thiomersal.

Lets compare that to the maximum load that US kids got before 2001.

The average US child got 187µg of Hg from all thiomersal containing shots. If we bend the rules in favour of the thiomersal (and Doubleday) theory and say that a 1 stone (14 pound) child had had that total of 187µg of Hg we can compare that to our 44 year old man who weighed 60kg (9.4 stone or 132 pounds).

Child Adult Male
187µg of Hg 2,480,000µg of Hg1
13.36µg per pound2 18,787.87µg per pound3

15g Thiomersal = 5,000,000µg of Thiomersal. 5,000,000/49.6% (Mercury in Thiomersal) = 2,480,000µg of Hg
21 stone (14 pound) child 187/14pounds = 13.36µg per pound
3 9.4 stone (132 pounds) 2,480,000/132 pounds = 18,787.87µg per pound

I think we can easily state that this man got vastly more thiomersal per pound then any child would. Even if we inflate the weight of our adult subject to 25 stone (350 pounds) he still gets 7,085.71µg per pound – over 530 times the amount. As it is, using the real figures, he’s getting over 1,400 times more thiomersal than the infant.

So what happened to our German friend? Surely he must’ve had one of the most ‘severe’ cases of autism ever seen right?

He developed gastritis, renal tubular failure, dermatitis, gingivitis, delirium, coma, polyneuropathy and respiratory failure.

Hmm. Sure doesn’t look, act, sound or quack like a duck….I’m going to go right ahead and surmise that in this man’s case, after ingesting over 1,400 times more mercury from thiomersal than an infant that he developed no signs of autism whatsoever and in fact somehow managed to avoid becoming autistic.

And the eventual outcome?

The patient recovered completely…..The decline of mercury concentration in blood, urinary mercury excretion, and renal mercury clearance were not substantially influenced by chelation therapy

It also looks like his total course of recovery took about 5 months. All neurological symptoms were resolved in 46 days. Not several (and ever increasing amounts of) years.

Put your money away Mr Doubleday – its not needed.

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