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Imagine Mr. Kennedy working in a Trump administration.

17 Jul

Donald Trump was be very bad for America and very bad for the autism communities in specific and would be worse in a second term. Robert Kennedy would be very bad for America and very bad for the autism communities in specific. But it can get worse. What if Donald Trump were elected and put Robert Kennedy in a position of authority? Mr. Kennedy asked Mr. Trump for a job as some sort of “vaccine commissioner” before Mr. Trump’s first term.

A leaked video shows Robert Kennedy speaking with Donald Trump. Media outlets are focusing on Mr. Trump playing to Mr. Kennedy’s anti-vaccine sentiments. A Trump/Kennedy conversation exchanging vaccine fearmongering is, frankly, not newsworthy in my opinion. The fact that a call happened is not either, to be honest. It would be appropriate for Mr. Kennedy to speak to Mr. Trump following the assassination attempt. We don’t have the full conversation in the video, so we don’t know who initiated the call or why. Mr. Kennedy says the main message was “national unity”

But here’s the part that I worry about:

Trump also appeared to appeal to Kennedy, though it’s unclear for what exactly. “I would love you to do something,” Trump said, without offering further context. “And I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you. And we’re going to win.”

Allow me to sidestep the “I would love you to do something” comment and focus on what Mr. Trump means by “so good for you and so big for you”. Most likely it’s Mr. Trump offering vague and empty promises. That would be very on-type for Mr. Trump. But, this will read to Mr. Kennedy’s followers as a possible open door to some sort of appointment in a Trump administration. They have speculated in the past about Mr. Kennedy running FDA or CDC. Which again would be very on-type for Mr. Trump’s planned second term: replacing people with competence with loyalists. Mr. Kennedy is unlikely to be a fierce loyalist, in my opinion. But, as a “burn it down” appointee, Mr. Kennedy might serve Mr. Trump’s vision well.

I am just amazed that Donald Trump is a viable candidate. His performance his first term was…bad. His disregard for the foundation of democracy should be undeniable, but denialists abound. The idea that Mr. Trump could appoint Mr. Kennedy to some post shouldn’t be the tipping point in one’s vote. Mr. Trump is bad enough as it is. But, seriously, Kennedy + Trump is worse than Trump alone.

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By Matt Carey

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So, Mr. Kennedy does cancel some speaking engagements

13 Mar

I recently wrote about how Robert Kennedy Jr. is gutless (I’m an autism parent. No way I will vote for Robert Kennedy Jr.. He’s gutless).  Over the past few decades, Mr. Kennedy has spoken at many events where fake, even abusive, therapies are promoted to autism parents for use on their disabled children. As a keynote speaker, Mr. Kennedy could have either refused to attend or used his platform to distance himself from these charlatans. To my knowledge, he never has.

So I was a little surprised to read that Mr. Kennedy had pulled out of recent convention (Not Even RFK Jr. Wanted to Come to This Vegas Convention of Anti-Vaxxers and ‘Free Speech’ Brands). The Rolling Stone article states:

The result was more anemic than cohesive, however, in part because scheduled keynote speaker Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had pulled out following a February article from Mother Jones. The piece noted that another RePlatform speaker, Lonnie Passoff, president of financial services providers Green.Money and GabPay, the latter being the payment system of the far-right social media network Gab, had endorsed antisemitic comments on a prominent conspiracist’s streaming show. 

Good for you, Mr. Kennedy. Good for you. A speaker at the convention had endorsed antisemitic comments so you decided to not show up.

But this begs the question, why were you willing to speak when charlatans are preying on the families of disabled children? The example I gave in my previous piece was that of chemical castration. For those who didn’t read the piece, I’m not making this up or exaggerating.

Let me bring up another example. Bleach enemas. Charlatans sold (and still sell) chlorine dioxide (a bleach) as enemas and drinks to cure autism. Parents would give their kids bleach enemas, the kids would pass the lining of their intestines and people would say, “look, we got rid of the parasites that cause autism!” No, I’m not making this one up either. I wrote about it many times.

The main proponent of this “therapy” in the autism communities was/is a woman named Kerri Riviera. One of the times she spoke was at a parent convention called AutismOne in 2013. The keynote speaker that year was Robert Kennedy.

Mr. Kennedy could have refused to speak. He could have spoken at the time that he disapproves of these therapies. He could have spoken out since then, demonstrating regret for lending his name and credibility to charlatans such as these.

To my knowledge, he never has.

That would have taken courage. And the ability to discern junk science. These are traits I have not seen Mr. Kennedy show often.

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By Matt Carey

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I’m an autism parent. No way I will vote for Robert Kennedy Jr.. He’s gutless.

26 Feb

As an example, I will discuss one particularly egregious “therapy” that was used on autistic children, the so-called “Lupron protocol”. Mr. Kennedy was in a perfect spot to stop or limit this therapy, but he never did. It would have taken courage, and, in my opinion, Mr. Kennedy is gutless.

Robert Kennedy (RFK Jr.) is running for president. He failed to gain the Democratic Party nomination and is now running as a third-party candidate. Since the beginning of his campaign, he’s faced criticism for being anti vaccine and anti-science. As someone who has watched Mr. Kennedy for nearly two decades I will agree: he is, indeed, anti-vaccine and anti-science. But that’s not why I am strongly against the idea of him being president. I oppose his bid for one reason:

He’s gutless.

Let me explain.

Long before Mr. Kennedy reached national prominence with his myriad of bad ideas during the COVID-19 pandemic, he was well known in the anti-vaccine autism-parent community. He was probably most famous for pushing the failed idea that mercury in vaccines caused an autism epidemic (an idea he still won’t abandon). And this is where many discussions focus on how his actions are anti-science and anti-vaccine. But to me, I hurt for the harms Mr. Kennedy’s advocacy has caused autistic people and the autism communities. One can say, “his anti-vaccine views have caused harm to public health”. One would be right. But, the anti-vaccine movement has long used autism and autistic people as the hammer with which they attack vaccines. And, to quote Sancho Panza in Man of La Mancha, “Whether the rock hits the pitcher or the pitcher hits the rock, it’s generally bad for the pitcher”. Being the weapon of choice for attacking vaccines has caused increased stigma and allowed charlatans to sell fake “cures” for autism which range from useless to abusive.

As an example, I will discuss one particularly egregious “therapy” that was used on autistic children, the so-called “Lupron protocol”. Mr. Kennedy was in a perfect spot to stop or limit this therapy, but he never did. It would have taken courage, and, in my opinion, Mr. Kennedy is gutless.

For decades there have been regular autism-parent conventions focused primarily on two things: promoting the idea that vaccines cause autism and promoting fake “cures” for autism as a vaccine injury. And Mr. Kennedy has been prominent at these conventions, serving as a keynote speaker.

Mr. Kennedy speaks primarily on the idea that vaccines cause autism (they don’t). He’s well respected as someone who has been involved for decades in this arena. His name gives some credence to the others at these conventions, including those who push abusive therapies.

I have never heard of Mr. Kennedy speaking out against the fake, even abusive, “therapies” pushed at these parent conventions. Why? In my opinion:

He’s gutless.

Allow me to focus on one of the most egregious fake therapies pushed as part of the vaccines-cause-autism movement. There are more. Many more. But let’s just discuss chemical castration.

If you are thinking, no way that happened, Matt. You must be exaggerating. I’m not.

Doctors were prescribing Lupron in order to reduce the testosterone in autistic children. That’s chemical castration in my lay opinion. Dr. David Gorski, an oncologist, wrote a series of articles about this “treatment” as “why not just castrate them“.

Surely they had a good reasoning for taking such drastic measures, you must be thinking. No, they didn’t. In fact, the “science” behind the therapy is horrifically bad. It would be funny if it wasn’t actually used on children.

How was the “Lupron protocol” justified? First, let’s start with the idea that autism is caused by mercury. It isn’t, but this is the idea that Mr. Kennedy pushed so hard 20 years ago. Mercury intoxication is commonly treated by chelation, which is a way to remove mercury from the body. For years medical practitioners pushed chelation on autism parents (again, often at these autism parent conventions that Mr. Kennedy is known to speak at). Only chelation didn’t work. It didn’t work because autism isn’t mercury intoxication. But to people like the Geiers, the problem was that chelation wasn’t working, the problem was they needed a better way to chelate. They came up with the idea that testosterone was binding to mercury and keeping chelators from working. So, they postulated, remove the testosterone and one can remove the mercury and the kid will stop being autistic. Which brings us to chemical castration: remove or reduce testosterone in the body. Which brings us back to Lupron.

Seriously, it happened. And a father-son team named Geier led the charge.

In order to prescribe the Lupron, the Geier’s needed a diagnosis. Insurance companies aren’t going to allow people to prescribe Lupron for mercury intoxication (even ignoring the fact that the Geiers didn’t have evidence for mercury intoxication). So the Geier chose precocious puberty as the diagnosis. Diagnose a kid with precocious puberty and you can prescribe Lupron.

The Geiers got into trouble for this. In 2013 they were facing disciplinary action as noted by blogger Todd W. at Harpocrates Speaks (among many others). They were facingmedical license suspension. In multiple states. So, you’d think people might be questioning the Geiers’ “protocol”. Perhaps checking the “science” that supported it? Well, not in Mr. Kennedy’s circles, apparently.

A few days after Todd W. wrote his article, two things happened. The Geier’s spoke at a parent convention called AutismOne. And Robert Kennedy was the keynote speaker for that convention.

Think about it. Mr. Kennedy could have told the parents at that convention that he stands apart from the Geiers. He could have just said perhaps people should be cautious, a relatively weak stance. Mr. Kennedy could have taken a stronger stance said that what the Geiers were doing was chemical castration and it was wrong, a much stronger stance.

To my knowledge Mr. Kennedy did not speak out then against the Geiers or any other practitioner of fake autism cures. I have no knowledge of him ever speaking out against charlatans.

It would have taken courage to speak out. It would have taken courage to admit to himself that he’d missed the obviously bogus science before, and that he, a self-professed science expert, was wrong. And it would have made a difference. I don’t consider it hyperbolic to say that I consider chemical castration of disabled (or any) children to be abusive. And Mr. Kennedy could have slowed or even stopped this practice long before Dr. Geier lost his license. He was respected and a frequent speaker at these conventions.

It takes courage to face allies (the Geiers were long known for pushing the mercury-autism link. Mr. Kennedy cites them multiple times in his books) and say they are doing wrong. Mr. Kennedy didn’t even have to admit that the mercury-causes-autism idea was false (which would have taken another step of courage and would have been the right thing to do). Just that chemically castrating disabled children is wrong.

Seriously, how hard is it to say, “Chemically castrating disabled children is wrong”, Mr. Kennedy?

Mr. Kennedy has spoken regularly at the “vaccines-cause-autism” parent conventions. And the Geiers were not the only ones pushing abusive therapies. It would have taken courage to say, “I will not speak and lend my name to a meeting where fake therapies are promoted.” But Mr. Kennedy lacks that courage.

This is largely due, I believe, to the fact that Mr. Kennedy lacks to courage to analyze his own lack of scientific expertise. My belief is that Mr. Kennedy, to this day, doesn’t understand just how bogus the “Lupron protocol” was. But it would take a courage for someone who has branded himself as a person who understands science (even though he lacks any credentials) to say, “You know what, I didn’t catch on to the idea that the science the Geiers were claiming was unsound.”

One might ask, was the Geier science obviously bogus? I would say yes and I would say that someone with the expertise Mr. Kennedy claims to have should have easily seen there was a problem very early on. Let me explain. The Geiers claimed that mercury and testosterone form “sheets”, large complexes, in the brains of autistic children. Sounds very scientific and all, until we found that the study the Geier’s were basing this idea upon involved boiling mercury and testoterone in benzine.

In my opinion, Mr. Kennedy should have known that a child’s brain is not similar to boiling benzine. Yes, this sounds snarky, but it really is that simple. The science behind the Geier’s “Lupron protocol” was really that bad.

But this discussion risks getting back into the realm of “He’s anti-science”. I bring this up not to point out Mr. Kennedy’s lack of science chops, but to point out that the science was so bad that it didn’t really take much analysis to see it.

That is if one has the courage to question. To question one’s allies. To question one’s own expertise. To question whether one’s own inaction led to the abuse of disabled children. And, again, in my opinion this was abuse. And Mr. Kennedy could have helped stop it sooner.

Again, I only picked one example. And this discussion has gone long, so you can understand why I chose only one example. But there are many examples of fake cures promoted at autism-parent conventions that Mr. Kennedy could have stopped. There’s also a lengthy discussion we could have about the stigma the anti-vaccine movement has brought to autistic people (one of Mr. Kennedy’s allies tried to label autism as “mad child disease“, to give you one example.) Mr. Kennedy could have spoken out agains the stigmatizing language. But the fear of autism and autistic people has long been a mainstay of the anti-vaccine movement.

We need a president with courage. While others discuss his anti-vaccine views, his near self-delusional belief in his scientific acument, let me just say this again: Mr. Kennedy lacks courage.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is gutless.

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By Matt Carey

More discussions
This blog on Mr. Kennedy.
Articles on this blog about the Geiers.
Articles on this blog about Lupron.
Mark Geier’s Wikipedia Page.


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Flu vaccine given to pregnant women doesn’t cause autism. Is anyone surprised?

3 Mar

I happened to run across this study from last year: Maternal Influenza A(H1N1) Immunization During Pregnancy and Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder in Offspring : A Cohort Study and thought it worth highlighting. The anti-vaccine movement has been good at moving goalposts and one of their lines in recent years has been that vaccines are dangerous for pregnant women. One line of “logic” holds that as mercury was phased out of vaccines, the influenza vaccine was given to pregnant women. Thus, we are told by anti-vaccine activists, explains why there was never their predicted drop in autism rates as thimerosal was phased out of vaccines.

The conclusion of the study is one line:

This large cohort study found no association between maternal H1N1 vaccination during pregnancy and risk for ASD in the offspring.

Will this convince the remaining anti-vaccine activists? Of course not. Is this surprising? No.

But it is worth noting another study which debunks their dangerous misinformation.

By Matt Carey

I got my second dose of COVID vaccine.

19 Feb

I am very fortunate that my state classified parents of high risk disabled kids (young adults, in my case) as “health care workers” and granted us access to the COVID-19 vaccine. 4 weeks ago I got dose one, and today I got dose 2.

As a short PSA–nurses like food and nothing stops you from showing them some gratitude. Here I am with the nurse who administered my shot, handing off a bag of chocolate.

“High risk” isn’t just a phrase. It’s a reality. My kid has a higher chance of complications or death than others. So I do this to protect them. And hospitals don’t have the capacity to handle a high support individual in the best of times. With a pandemic, the idea that my kid could end up strapped down and/or sedated has been very much on my mind.

So if I can reduce the chances of my kid getting sick, I’m taking it.

And I will admit, I am pleased to have the protection for myself. One of the phrases you will hear attributed to parents of disabled kids is “what will happen when I’m gone”. Well, this is a big step to make “when I’m gone” happen later. COVID kills.

As the parent of an autistic person I am well aware that many of my fellow parents are actively anti-vaccine. That’s a big reason why I speak out against their misinformation. The harm they do is very real.

I look forward to a time when we have COVID-19 under some control. Not so I can stop wearing a mask or eat at a restaurant. So I can rest with the confidence that my kid and other people are safer.

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By Matt Carey

As of March 15 people with developmental disabilities can qualify for COVID vaccines in California

18 Feb

California is opening access to COVID vaccines to more people. As part of this they have issued “Updated COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Guidelines” which includes guidance on vaccines for people with developmental disabilities. Access will start March 15. Individuals must be 16 years or older, and meet these requirements:

1) The individual is likely to develop severe life-threatening illness or death from COVID-19 infection
2) Acquiring COVID-19 will limit the individual’s ability to receive ongoing care or services vital to their well-being and survival
3) Providing adequate and timely COVID care will be particularly challenging as a result of the individual’s disability.

Here is a quote of the guidance:

Vaccinating those at higher risk

Beginning March 15, healthcare providers may use their clinical judgement to vaccinate individuals aged 16-64 who are deemed to be at the very highest risk to get very sick from COVID-19 because they have the following severe health conditions:

Cancer, current with weakened immune system
Chronic kidney disease, stage 4 or above
Chronic pulmonary disease, oxygen dependent
Down syndrome
Solid organ transplant, leading to a weakened immune system
Pregnancy
Sickle cell disease
Heart conditions, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease, or cardiomyopathies (but not hypertension)
Severe obesity (Body Mass Index ≥ 40 kg/m2)
Type 2 diabetes mellitus with hemoglobin A1c level greater than 7.5%

OR
If as a result of a developmental or other severe high-risk disability one or more of the following applies:

The individual is likely to develop severe life-threatening illness or death from COVID-19 infection
Acquiring COVID-19 will limit the individual’s ability to receive ongoing care or services vital to their well-being and survival
Providing adequate and timely COVID care will be particularly challenging as a result of the individual’s disability.

This is a very welcome change. Caregivers were allowed access to the COVID vaccines earlier (Family members of some people with developmental disabilities declared “health care workers” and are eligible for COVID vaccines in California). Now we can extend People with disabilities are at high risk from COVID and getting this protection is a big step forward.

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By Matt Carey

“I do believe sadly it’s going to take some diseases coming back…” — Jenny McCarthy 2009

5 Dec

I do believe sadly it’s going to take some diseases coming back to realize that we need to change and develop vaccines that are safe. If the vaccine companies are not listening to us, it’s their f___ing fault that the diseases are coming back. They’re making a product that’s s___. If you give us a safe vaccine, we’ll use it. It shouldn’t be polio versus autism.

Jenny McCarthy, 2009.

Jenny, you were as wrong about how people would react to outbreaks as you were wrong about vaccines and as you were wrong about fake autism cures.

Samoans a dying right now from measles. Maybe it’s time to step the f___ up and undo some of the damage you’ve caused? Maybe as in “it’s f__ing time you did this, Jenny”.

I can’t get the video from this story to embed, but it’s worth watching. Skip to 4:30s to see how the Somoan people are responding.

Anti-vax groups swamp Samoan government’s online pages during massive vaccination campaign.

I don’t know how in the hell you could have thought that outbreaks, kids dying, would make people believe you.

You’ve been hiding away for years, not facing the damage you’ve helped cause. Time to grow a spine and do something.
—
Matt Carey

An autism parent’s gratitude to the Kennedys for speaking out

9 May

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Joseph P. Kennedy II, Meave Kennedy McKean: thank you. We in the disability community owe much to the Kennedy family. We don’t forget the gains in special education and other areas that the Kennedy family championed for us.

With that in mind, it’s been especially hard to watch Robert Kennedy Jr. spread vaccine misinformation. More, it’s been painful to see him use my community, the autism community, as his base and his weapon in his campaign.

I know it took courage to step forward and speak out against the misinformation your family member, Robert Kennedy Jr, has been spreading. Thank you.

For readers who are unaware, members of the Kennedy family wrote a piece published on Politico:

RFK Jr. Is Our Brother and Uncle. He’s Tragically Wrong About Vaccines.

Here’s a paragraph:

These tragic numbers are caused by the growing fear and mistrust of vaccines—amplified by internet doomsayers. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—Joe and Kathleen’s brother and Maeve’s uncle—is part of this campaign to attack the institutions committed to reducing the tragedy of preventable infectious diseases. He has helped to spread dangerous misinformation over social media and is complicit in sowing distrust of the science behind vaccines.

To the Kennedys: I am a father. I have an autistic child. Robert Kennedy positions himself as an ally, a champion of parents like myself. Let me make this clear: Robert Kennedy does not speak for me. He does not speak for more than a few autism parents. He certainly doesn’t speak my son or other autistics. He has been part of the effort to weaponize fear of disability to frighten people about vaccines. As such, he has added to the stigma my son faces.

There is another aspect to this you may not be aware of: the anti-vaccine community is closely tied to the worst in the alternative medicine movement. Robert Kennedy regularly speaks at autism parent conventions where therapies that can only be called abusive are promoted as “cures for vaccine injury”. Mr. Kennedy could speak out against these therapies. He could stand up and make himself heard and stop this abuse. Instead, he has remained silent.

In a few weeks, Mr. Kennedy will once again be speaking at the Autism One convention in Chicago. Here are some of the therapies that have been promoted at Autism One:

Chemical Castration. Mr. Kennedy’s allies in promoting the failed idea that mercury in vaccines cause autism promoted an idea that Lupron could help remove mercury from the brain, somehow treating autism. Lupron shuts down the body’s production of sex hormones. It’s basically chemical castration. (See Disability Scoop: Chemical Castration Drug Peddled As Autism Treatment). Chemical castration of disabled youth, how can anyone not see this as abuse?

Bleach Enemas. Sounds so ridiculous that it couldn’t be true, right? But there are people, presenting at the same place as Robert Kennedy Jr, claiming that a bleach solution, either as a drink or an enema, can cure autism. Somehow this treats vaccine injury, in their logic. Disabled children are exposed to enough of this bleach (Chlorine Dioxide) that they pass the lining of their intestines. These are called “worms”. It’s abuse.

Unregulated stem cell transplants. Parents have been flying their children to foreign countries to have “stem cell” infusions. This is nothing short of medical experimentation.

Chelation. Mr. Kennedy’s main theme for years involved mercury from vaccines. When my son was first diagnosed, one couldn’t get into an online autism discussion without chelation coming up. Autistic children were misdiagnosed with “mercury poisoning” by various, frankly fraudulent, tests. These tests were used to justify chelation, without the supervision of actual toxicologists. These children were never mercury intoxicated. Animal studies have shown that chelation, applied when there is no intoxication, causes cognitive decline. Think of that, disabled children may have lost cognitive gains because people believed Robert Kennedy’s message.

The list goes on and on. “Autism as Vaccine Injury” is used to sell all sorts of fake and, sometimes, abusive therapies. And no one in the anti-vaccine community, and that includes Robert Kennedy Jr., stand up to counter this movement. Instead they accept these charlatans and frauds as allies. As long as vaccines are blamed, charlatans know they can stand up in places like Autism One and not hear criticism.

Robert Kennedy could have slowed or stopped these abuses. He could have shown courage. Instead he’s been using my community as a weapon in his attack on vaccines.

To the Kennedy family: I know this is tough to read. Believe me, if anything, I’ve downplayed the harm the “vaccines cause autism” message has caused to my community. You are the people who might be able to get Robert Kennedy Jr. to stand up and start correcting the damage he’s help inflict.

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By Matt Carey

Today’s measles outbreak, brought to you by Generation Rescue and other anti-vaccine misinformation sources

1 May

With less than a half-dozen full-time activists, annual budgets of six figures or less, and umpteen thousand courageous, undaunted, and selfless volunteer parents, our community, held together with duct tape and bailing wire, is in the early to middle stages of bringing the U.S. vaccine program to its knees.

–J.B. Handley. Founder of Generation Rescue and the Age of Autism Blog.
March 17, 2010

Kelli Ann Davis. Anyone remember that name? She was a spokesperson and political liaison (or something like that) for Generation Rescue back in the day. As in 10 years ago or so.

I’d be amazed if anyone actually remembered her name. It took me a while to remember her name, but I remembered her. She was a frequent commenter in online discussions on vaccines. News stories and blogs. She really liked to point out that there were pockets of under vaccinated people. Schools and communities with low vaccine uptakes. And there weren’t outbreaks of diseases. This, in her mind, seemed to be evidence that herd immunity was a fake idea. Worthy of scare quotes (“herd immunity”).

Here’s an example I dug up from the Age of Autism blog, circa 2009:

She stuck in my mind. She was so arrogant in her ignorance. So full of her self with her bad logic. And she was spreading misinformation.

I knew it was only a matter of time before the outbreaks did come. Before someone imported something like measles into one or more of these under-protected communities.

I won’t hold my breath waiting for her to come back and take responsibility. I won’t wait for Generation Rescue to accept its role in causing suffering. I won’t expect other purveyors of misinformation to show the backbone needed to admit a mistake.

I will admit I was wrong in one area–I worried that eventually the press would start to realize that a great deal of the misinformation campaign has been waged by a vocal minority of autism parents. That is why I remembered Kelli Ann. Not for the chance to one day say, “I told you so”. I knew that these outbreaks would come. The outbreaks would cause people to suffer, some to possibly endure lasting harm and, let’s hope this doesn’t happen, death. While slowing or blunting the harm from these inevitable outbreaks was a worthy goal in and of itself, I was worried that the autism community would take the blame for people like Kelli Ann. JB Handley. Jenny McCarthy.

I am grateful that this hasn’t happened. So far. But I also think it’s on us, autism parents, to call out the behavior of our own. We need to reduce the misinformation that comes from our community. Be it vaccine misinformation, disrespect of people with disabilities or spreading medical pseudoscience.

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By Matt Carey

p.s. Yes, I realize that “anti-vaccination” and “misinformation source” are largely redundant.

Oh no! SB277 is causing autism (except it isn’t)

1 May

When I first started looking online for autism information I was constantly hit with people using public data from California to try to convince me that vaccines cause autism. David Kirby was particularly effective at raising fear. Too bad he didn’t stick around and apologize, as the data now show he was clearly wrong.

Kirby was claiming that the rate of identified autism in California was going up, correlating with more mercury in vaccines. California removed mercury, and autism did not go down. It’s a great lesson. It’s easy to scare people, sell books, get fame. It takes a lot of guts to admit one was spectacularly wrong. Kirby chose the easy road.

That said, we still see armchair epidemiologists trying to make California autism data fit their pet theories. (Yes, SFASA, I’m thinking of you while I write this. But you aren’t the actual topic of today’s post). So I wasn’t surprised to see that people on Facebook were abusing California autism data to scare people about vaccines. You see California passed SB277 a few years ago, eliminating the personal belief exemption for vaccines. In other words, fewer people could opt out of vaccines for their kids. Kids entering preschool (age 3), grade 1 (age 5) and grade 7 (age 11) had to comply with the new law. The kids had to get up to date on vaccines.

Because of this, people are focusing on 3 year olds to see if the data from the California Department of Education indicates a jump in autism People are claiming that the number of 3 year olds in autism category climbed faster than did 4 year olds. And this, of course, means that SB277 caused more kids to get vaccinated and vaccines cause autism. Because everything means vaccines cause autism. (click to enlarge)

(Before one goes too far into this, SB277 doesn’t apply to special education students. So, those 3 year olds didn’t need catch up shots. But, don’t let important facts get in the way of claiming vaccines cause autism.)

When someone makes a claim like that the first thing I think is, how noisy are the data? The second thing I ask myself is, what are they not showing me. In this case, why did they tell us about 3, 4 and 5 year olds and then skip 6 and 7 year olds and show 8 year olds? What happened with those 6 and 7 year olds that they didn’t want me to see? For that matter, what happens with kids older than 8?

So I pulled the data and looked. And I made a table. Because listing these numbers like they did makes it hard to actually compare results. I don’t think they intentionally made it hard for people to compare. I just think they were sloppy. I strongly suspect they were trying to hide something, but not in failing to make a simple table. That all said, here are the number of students in the autism category by age for California in 2015 (pre SB277) and 2017 (post SB277). (click to enlarge)

In the Facebook post we were presented this question:

Other age groups increased 13-15%. What has happened to these poor 3-year olds?

But, we can clearly see that other age groups increased by numbers well outside that 13-15% range. For example, 6 year olds (remember how they just skipped that age group) saw an 18% increase. Not the 24% increase seen for 3 year olds, but a sizable increase. Which might have led a reader to ask, “hey, are these data just noisy?” And, “why didn’t you show me that data point?” Or, “what are you trying to hide?” or “Are you purposely cherry picking to make your point?” Or, “I’ll give you the benefit of doubt and assume you just don’t know what you are doing. Which, given that you believe vaccines cause autism is a very safe bet.”

Let’s keep digging. What does happen with, oh, 16 year olds? OH MY GOD! SB277 caused a huge 22% increase in autism in 16 year olds! That’s almost as big as for 3 year olds! Vaccines are to blame!

Of course, 16 year olds weren’t affected by SB277. They didn’t have to catch up on shots. In other words, there’s scatter in the data. It’s not “Other age groups increased 13-15%” as claimed. It’s “other groups increased between 6-22%.”

Remember how SB277 required older students to get catch-up shots? Like 5 year olds and 11 year olds? 5 year olds were what the Facebook poster used as their baseline, 13% increase. That’s actually below the average increase (which was 16%). How about those 11 year olds? 9% increase. Well below average. So, SB277 caused more autism in 3 year olds, but less in 5 and 11 year olds? Those kids were protected by catch up shots?

No. Let’s say it again–people are trying to put significance on noise. And I think they know it, that’s why they are not showing you all the data. That’s the polite way to say, I think they are trying to mislead you. Maybe they actually believe their claim and, you know, just don’t want you to be confused with all that data that conflicts with their claim. Maybe they believe vaccines cause autism because they have no real skill analyzing data and studies.

There are more important questions here. Questions that actually matter to the autism community.

Go through these data a few times and you should start asking yourself: why does the autism count increase for older kids? 13 year olds in 2015, there were 5874 counted as autistic. 2 years later (as 17 year olds) there were 6084. If autism is obvious, you can’t miss an autistic no way no how, how exactly did 200 or so more of these kids get counted as autistic?

Simple answer–many of these 200 kids were missed before. They were missed. They didn’t get supports and services based on their disability. And this shouldn’t happen. Autism counts, like these, aren’t an accurate count of the real number of autistics in a population. But the fact that autism counts aren’t accurate doesn’t play into the epidemic playbook. This isn’t just a problem for the anti-vaccine community. Yes, they’ve never cared about actually helping autistics. But consider SFASA (San Francisco chapter of the Autism Society of America). That’s a group whose purpose it is to serve autistics. All autistics. No matter whether they have intellectual disability or not. No matter whether they are identified or not. But SFASA denies that autistics have been missed in the past.

Ah, I digress. Back to double checking the anti-vaccine activist claims. So, 3 year olds across the state saw a big jump in the autism count from 2015 to 2017, right? If this is real, then the jump would have to be seen in various locations across the state too, right? For example, in Los Angeles Unified School District (largest in the state), we’d see the same result, right? Simple test. Let’s do it.

LA Unified counted 737 3 year olds as autistic in 2015. They counted 783 as autistic in 2017. That’s a 6% increase. That’s a lot less than the 24% statewide. So if we take the theory that “SB277 caused a jump in autism across the state” then in LA Unified, SB277 is preventing autism!

The anti-vaccine movement has always taken just the data that supports their theory and ignored the rest. They have also always used fear. This is just another small chapter in that story.

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By Matt Carey

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