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Why should the strategic plan include vaccines…

14 Nov

…if all the vaccines-cause-autism advocacy organizations can’t ask for it?

I’ve been watching the process for the IACC fairly closely. You may have noticed my obsession. One issue that has come up is…you guessed it, vaccines. IACC meetings have been available to listen to by phone. (thank you NIH!) I’ve listened to long…long…long…speeches about the importance of research on vaccines and mercury. It’s had very broad support from…well…Lyn Redwood and Mark Blaxill. Pretty much silence from the rest of the IACC.

That said, I can’t say I am not surprised that an 11th hour attempt to change the process. Yes, according to a letter sent to members of the IACC, “we as a community community” are “united” expressing disapproval for for the Strategic Plan in the current form. This isn’t new. In person and in letters, members of these organization have co-opted my rights into an “autism community” that supports their vaccine/mercury agenda.

But, it’s worth taking a look at the letter. Alternatively, you could trust me to tell you what I found. Better yet, let me tell you what I didn’t find: vaccines. No mention of the word vaccines…or mercury…or thimerosal…or immunization…or epidemic. I seriously had to check that the search function was working as I read that document.

Why point this out? To jab a little fun at our good friends? No, there is a much more important message here:

Take a look at the organizations that signed this letter:

Autism New Jersey
Autism Research Institute
Autism Society of America
Autism Speaks
Generation Rescue
National Autism Association
Organization for Autism Research (OAR)
SafeMinds
Southwest Autism Research & Resource Center (SARRC)
Talk About Curing Autism (TACA)
Unlocking Autism

If they can’t agree on including “vaccine”, “mercury”, “epidemic” or any variation of those words—

WHY SHOULD THE IACC INCLUDE THOSE WORDS IN THE STRATEGIC PLAN????

Seriously, there has been a big push to get the IACC to make a strong statement on the vaccine issue. And yet, these words are missing from their own letter.

So, I’ll say it again: if Generation Rescue, SafeMinds and the rest can’t agree to put “vaccines” or “epidemic” in a letter, why should the IACC bow to their wishes and include these terms in the Strategic Plan?

Defeating Autism: A Damaging Delusion

7 Nov

Dr Mike Fitzpatrick’s new book ‘Defeating Autism: A Damaging Delusion‘ is now available (Amazon: UK, US, Canada). Just as I did for Paul Offit’s Autism’s False Prophets, I’ll give this a short review and a long review.

The short review: Holy shit, this book is good. Go buy it.

OK, so the long review. I got my copy when I was but a few ten’s of pages away from finishing Ben Goldacre’s Bad Science and try as I did I simply couldn’t resist putting Ben’s excellent book aside for the duration it would take me to read Mike’s book. Ben can rest easy in that it took me only a few absorbed and fascinated hours to read Mike’s book and I will thus be back with him shortly.

Mike starts with an overview of what is to come through the rest of the book – a subject delineated overview of the last ten years or so of attempts to defeat autism.

Mike’s son (who coincidentally is the same age as my own) is introduced and we hear of the abject lack of options given to parents in the early 90’s.

The clinic staff were all sympathetic and courteous, but they appeared to have no practical suggestions……We did not return.

It was at this time that Mike came into contact with two names, now steeped in the autism alt-med industry: Paul Shattock and Bernard Rimland. Shattock liked GF/CF and Rimland liked mega-dose vitamins together with anti-oxidants and _also_ the GF/CF diet. However:

I read the papers from Sunderland and San Diego with great interest……To say I was disappointed was an understatement. What immediately struck me about the writings of Shattock, Rimland and their colleagues was that, rather than indicating an innovate approach at the cutting edge of medical science, they revelaed a retreat into the byways and cul-de-sacs of the biological psychiatry of the 1960s and 1970s.

Then, later on, Mike discusses the beating heart of this book – the delusion itself:

I have become increasingly concerned at the damaging consequences of the quest to ‘defeat autism’. The movement that has advanced under this banner on both sides of the Atlantic seeks to redefine autism as an epidemic disease caused by vaccines or some other, as yet unidentified, environmental factor. Despite the lack of scientific support for this theory it has acquired the character of a dogmatic conviction for many who uphold it, in the face of all contradictory evidence.

Mike makes no bones about the fact that he considers (rightly so in my opinion) the quest to ‘defeat autism’ to be damaging on numerous levels. It is damaging financially to parents. It is damaging to relationships. It is damaging to children’s health. But most of all, it is damaging in the attitude that the crusade itself expresses towards autistic people. Mike, I am delighted to report, quotes extensively from Frank Klein and Jim Sinclair and makes nice mentions of Autism Hub bloggers at various times.

To me, this is an ‘autistic friendly’ book. Parents are not given any empowering pity just because they are parents and the voices and opinions of autistic people are given equal space to those who are not autistic. Mike does not try to pretend that everything is rosy in the garden of autism but he does most definitely portray the need to defeat autism as damaging. This is a must read for all parents and all people involved however peripherally in the field of autism.

David Kirby clarifies?

31 Oct

David is obviously a reader of this blog or Autism Vox or Respectful Insolence as these are (so far as I know) the three blogs that commented on his claim that thimerosal was no longer the ‘smoking gun’ for autism causation. Here’s the quote from the New Jersey Star Ledger:

David Kirby, a journalist and author of “Evidence of Harm: Mercury in Vaccines and the Autism Epidemic: A Medical Controversy,” said he believed that thimerosal, which still exists in trace amounts in some childhood vaccines, was no longer the “smoking gun.” Several national studies have found no connection, and a California study found that, even after thimerosal was removed from vaccines, diagnoses of autism continued to rise.

Now that’s a pretty unequivocal statement. Even so, David felt the need to clarify on Age of Autism yesterday:

The term “smoking gun” comes from Sherlock Holmes…..[]….To this writer’s mind…….the term means the “one and only cause,”.

I do not believe that thimerosal is the one and only cause of autism.

Now I’m confused. In the quote from the New Jersey Star Ledger David says thimerosal is no longer the cause of autism. In his own quote on AoA he says it is. Here is the quote that uses the words ‘smoking gun’:

The triggers, as I mentioned, might include, unfortunately, everything, and when I wrote my book I was hopeful that maybe thimerosal was the smoking gun. And if we just got mercury out of vaccines, autism would rapidly reduce. And we haven’t seen that happen yet. But I did say if that does not happen then that’s bad news; now we’re back to square one. It would have been so much nicer, and easier, and cleaner to say, gosh, it was the mercury in the vaccines and now we can take it out and the case is closed. That didn’t happen, and we need to look at everything. And as I said, not only the individual vaccine ingredients, but also the cumulative effects of so many vaccines at once.

So, this then as people said to me, is not David saying ‘its not thiomersal’, its David saying its not just thimerosal.

I’m kind of saddened by this. As David himself says:

There has been so much debate over ‘What is THE cause?’ And for a long time in this country, we were fixated on thimerosal, the vaccine preservative, and I share some of the blame for that because my book focused mostly on thimerosal.

Fixated is the right word. Some of us over and over and over were constantly telling people it couldn’t possibly – based on the available data – be thimerosal. And yet this stopped no-one from saying it was. More importantly it stopped no one from chelating autistic kids needlessly for ‘mercury poisoning’ that didn’t actually exist.

David now officially joins with Jenny McCarthy and the new side of autism/vaccines. Its everything. Individual vaccines ingredients and the cumulative effects of so many vaccines at once. My question is why? What we have here is an instance where a hypotheses was tested and failed to be accurate. It took 10 years for people who believe David to get that message. Many still haven’t.

David also claims that his infamous claim about CDDS data in 2005 (that if the thiomersal hypothesis was correct CDDS rates would fall – they didn’t) failed to take into account key confounders –

1) Falling age of diagnosis
2) Thiomersal in the flu shot
3) Immigration
4) Rising levels of background mercury

With all due respect to David these are pretty shoddy. David asks if the caseload could’ve increased between 1995-96 due to recent falling age of diagnosis and aggressive early intervention. I’m not sure that 95-96 could really be considered recent.

As discussed by Do’C on Autism Street, the whole ‘mercury in flu shots’ thing is rather misleading:

…better than 90% of the 5 year olds in the relevant data set were not even vaccinated. Does the increase in flu shot uptake in this age group that occurred after 2003 even matter with respect to the California data? It doesn’t seem likely given that about 80% of kids in the relevant age group are not even vaccinated during the next couple of years. But aside from that, the ones who were vaccinated were decreasingly likely to receive a thimerosal containing flu shot at all.

I’m not sure what to make of the Immigration thing. It makes me feel a bit uncomfortable – its easy to blame ‘the outsiders’ but without any actual science (and I’m not of the opinion that running CDDS data through Excel is science, sorry) to back those beliefs up, it feels like an easy ‘out’.

This rising levels of background mercury thing puzzles me. It may well be happening. David didn’t source the three studies (I imagine one is the Palmer thing) but I don’t see what background mercury has to do with thiomersal? Maybe I’m missing the obvious here.

David went on to describe what mercury can do:

constriction of visual fields, impaired hearing, emotional disturbances, spastic movements, incontinence, groaning, shouting, dizziness, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and constipation,” (HERE) (otherwise known as every afternoon at the Redwood house, circa 1998 in my book)

That may well be ‘every afternoon in the Redwood house’ but its never been any time of the day in my house. None, I repeat, none of the symptoms David lists form part of the DSM (IV). Whatever it was causing those symptoms every afternoon in the Redwood household, it had nothing to do with autism.

David closes by referring to a study published early this year. He says:

So, despite all the cries of innocence among mercury supporters, the California study authors insist that this trend has not been confirmed.

Not quite. Here’s the quote from the Medical News Today article:

They also cautioned that the evaluation of the trends needs to continue in order to confirm their findings for the children born more recently.

What they’re saying is that their conclusion for the data they’ve looked at is:

The DDS data do not show any recent decrease in autism in California despite the exclusion of more than trace levels of thimerosal from nearly all childhood vaccines. The DDS data do not support the hypothesis that exposure to thimerosal during childhood is a primary cause of autism.

but – quite reasonably – for children they haven’t looked at, they can’t speak for.

David Kirby – Thimerosal does not cause autism

29 Oct

In something of a jaw-on-chest admission, David has finally admitted that thimerosal does not cause autism:

David Kirby, a journalist and author of “Evidence of Harm: Mercury in Vaccines and the Autism Epidemic: A Medical Controversy,” said he believed that thimerosal, which still exists in trace amounts in some childhood vaccines, was no longer the “smoking gun.” Several national studies have found no connection, and a California study found that, even after thimerosal was removed from vaccines, diagnoses of autism continued to rise.

I would go on to say then that the claim that mercury in vaccines ever caused a never-established autism ‘epidemic’ needs to be retracted also. I would further like to see David (who has appeared on TV, Radio and in the press speaking as if thimerosal was definitely the cause) question his previous belief that this was ever a medical controversy.

We need to be clear on this issue. In the US, the idea that mercury in vaccines cause autism is the reason so many parents are not vaccinating their children. David was the chief media spokesperson in this belief and whilst it is gratifying to hear him publicly admit thimerosal does not cause autism – it needs to be proclaimed widely and David needs be much more public than this.

However, its not all good.

But, he said, the links between vaccines and conditions like autism are still strong and more research is needed.

Conditions like autism or autism?

David seems to have moved from targetting thimerosal to simply targeting vaccines in general. Contrary to his statement that there are strong links between autism and vaccines, the fact is that there are none. No decent science supports this hypotheses and (with apologies to David) he has a now self-admittedly bad track record when talking about ‘strong links’ between vaccines and autism. David’s ‘strong link‘ between thiomersal and autism was CDDS data and we all know how that one turned out. I’d ask David to please consider very carefully his ideas about ‘strong links’ of today turning around to bite him in the future. Does international public health really need another three/four year gambol through the wilderness based on a non scientific ‘strong link’ which in reality is simply an opinion?

We all know the recent makeover the vaccine hypotheses has been getting. Generation Rescue now no longer claim that autism is simply mercury poisoning for which the cure is two years chelation resulting in a child 100% neurotypical, no different from their peers. SafeMinds – an organisation dedicated to Mercury in their very name – attack MMR, a vaccine that has never contained mercury. Jenny McCarthy is now on board and gives credence to the idea that an average parent (such as myself) knows more about the sciences of medicine, epidemiology, toxicology etc etc than specialists who have spent years in their field. Whilst at the same time Ms McCarthy simply cannot keep her story straight about incidents from her book or even when her son was recovered or not.

The inconsistencies mount and mount and whilst I am glad that David has admitted the non-role of thimerosal in autism causation this is simply the tip of the iceberg. Are Generation Rescue, SafeMinds, NAA, TreatingAutism, A-CHAMP queuing up to admit the same? Are these same organisation prepared to go back onto the same TV/Radio stations they first proudly proclaimed they knew the cause and had the cure and admit they were wrong? Or will it all continue to be held behind the Emerald City of the new ‘Green Our vaccines where we are urged to never, ever look behind the curtain in case we see the simple, obvious truth about the grand machinations?

Memo to Bob and Suzanne Wright

22 Oct

Bob, Suzanne – welcome to the UK.

I read your interview in the Telegraph. Fascinating. I’d like to highlight a few points.

“We want the best minds in the world to focus on this,” says Wright. “And we want the UK to be a big player in the global movement.”

“Until now it seems to have passed under your radar,” adds Suzanne – a statement that could anger all the British activists who have been working in the field for decades.

Um yes, just a bit. You see, in the UK, we already have some of the best minds ‘working on this’.

And ‘passed under our radar’? One could assume that Suzanne Wright has a monumental gift for saying stupid things after reading that. Maybe she hasn’t heard of the National Autistic Society a parent founded organisation formed over 40 years ago in 1962. Maybe she hasn’t heard of it because it doesn’t cry about ‘the children’ all the time and because it recognises the fact that autistic people have a voice (no autistic people are on AS board whereas autistic people are represented at many levels of NAS) and are – in the main – adults and it tailors its aim appropriately. Whilst NAS is far from perfect it has learnt the necessity to respect autistic people for the fact that they are autistic. Something the Wrights aren’t even close to. If the Wrights want to get any traction in the UK they need to shut their mouths and listen to NAS.

And then the anti-vax rhetoric starts, giving lie to the idea that AS are pro-vaccine.

….The last vaccine Christian had before he regressed was MMR – that’s why my daughter concentrates on that. I don’t know whether his autism is linked: it was certainly coincidental, what we don’t know is if it was causal. Nor do we know whether the thimerosal (the mercury-based preservative used in vaccines) is a factor, although mercury is clearly poisonous. Governments want to run from that issue but they should become more aggressively involved. They have to follow children through to see if there are any effects.

Well Bob actually we do know if his MMR shot was causal. It wasn’t. We also do know if thiomersal is a factor. It isn’t.

I personally haven’t seen a government ‘running from the issue’. I’ve seen government spokespeople repeat what science tells us. There is no link. No matter how much people think there is or believe there is, based on the available evidence, there isn’t. Science has followed through to see if there were any effects. There weren’t. How much clearer does it need to be Bob?

Virginia Bovill perfectly sums up my own concerns about you and your wife’s organisation:

The other major source of concern is Wright’s focus on prevention and cure. This upsets Virginia Bovill, founder of TreeHouse, the charity hosting the lecture, who is currently studying for a DPhil on whether the quest to prevent and cure autism is morally justified. “Where would prevention lead – to ante-natal testing and abortion?” she asks. “The thought of a world without all the people I have met with autism is not a world I would want to live in. I would rather people said: ‘They are here, autism is here – how can we help these children fulfil their potential; how can we support their parents?'”

This is a very British pragmatism. The issue is right here and needs to be addressed. Do you want to help or do you want to force through your own beliefs simply because they are your beliefs? If the latter please just hop back on the plane. We don’t want you here.

Every Child By Two: Oprah, Jenny McCarthy et al

20 Oct

An email from Amy Pisani – a thoroughly charming lady who runs the organisation Every Child By Two – made me nod appreciatively today. I’ll quote it in full:

It has been quite some time since Every Child By Two (ECBT) has asked you to take action on an issue related to immunizations. I write to you today with an urgent request for your assistance in reaching out to the Oprah Winfrey Show to urge that she dedicate a show to the science behind the question of whether vaccines cause autism.

More than fourteen credible studies have been conducted worldwide exonerating vaccines and yet the media and entertainment industry continue to frame this as a debate. ECBT and our public health partners have reached out to Oprah’s producers countless times without success. However, I recently had a lengthy conversation with one of the producers who recommended that we initiate a letter writing campaign by commenting within the Oprah.com feedback section of the website. This information is tabulated to determine whether there is enough interest to conduct follow up shows.

I urge you to take five minutes to fill out the Oprah Winfrey Show online form by following the link below. In your comments, please request that Oprah invite credible scientists and/or physicians to explain the science of vaccines to her viewers. We also would like her to invite parents who have suffered the loss of a child from a vaccine-preventable disease, and a parent of an autistic child who can speak on behalf of the many families that are frustrated over the continued focus on vaccines and their supposed link to autism and the therapies that focus on “repairing vaccine damage”. Please relate any personal experiences you may have with vaccine-preventable diseases or autism. In addition, please refer the Oprah Winfrey Show to Amy Pisani, Executive Director of Every Child By Two, for any follow-up questions.

And finally, please forward this to your family and friends and request that they also reach out to the Oprah Winfrey Show.

https://www.oprah.com/ord/plugform.jsp?plugId=215

An excellent idea. I’d like to see a show that mirrors the one sided show that Jenny McCarthy recently got – the one where she was free to spout off her latest game of ‘cure the Evan‘ (he’s cured, no he’s not, yes he is….) but this time with a careful step by step walk through the science that:

…is largely complete. Ten epidemiological studies [plus two clinical ones and the testimony of Stephen Bustin] have shown MMR doesn’t cause autism; six have shown thimerosal doesn’t cause autism; three have shown thimerosal doesn’t cause subtle neurological problems; a growing body of evidence now points to the genes that are linked to autism; and despite the removal of thimerosal from vaccines in 2001 [and the 10% drop in MMR uptake between 1997-2007], the number of children with continues to rise.

– Autism’s False Prophets, Page 247. Dr Paul Offit.

Compare this hard, clinical, transparent (and thus independent) science with Mother Warrior Jenny McCarthy’s recent evangelical call to arms:

“I made a deal with God,” she explains. “I said, ‘You fix my boy, you show me the way and I’ll teach the world how I did it.'”

Hallelujah! Or whatever. To misquote the Pythons – she’s not the Messiah, she’s just a very silly girl.

Please act on Amy Pisani’s request – do it right now.

The next mito-autism case?

20 Oct

It’s been nearly a year since the first autism/mitochondria case was conceded. The question of mitochondrial dysfunction and autism has evolved significantly in the minds of the public and insiders in that time.

Shortly after the concession, Tom Powers, lead attorney for the petitions was asked

.”..whether this was a possible break in the case, he replied that the particular case dealt with a claimant who had a diagnosed mitochondrial disorder. As a result, it probably won’t have much of an effect on the other cases.”

It wasn’t really on the radar for the Petitioners.

But, that was in December of 2007. In February of 2008, the concession document was leaked, followed by TV, online and print news-stories on the topic. Coincidentally, mitochondria and autism has changed from not “much of an effect on the other cases” to some people claiming as much as 1/2 of the Autism Omnibus cases being associated with mitochondria.

We’ve seen one Omnibus test case removed from the Omnibus because, the parents claim, the child’s case needs to be argued as a mitochondrial dysfunction case. We’ve gone from diagnosing mitochondrial dysfunction involving a difficult task of many tests and specialist’s opinions, to the point where David Kirby, a blogger, claims to be identifying mitochondrial dysfunction based on parental reports. We now have self-taught “experts” ready to answer questions on discussion boards about mitochondrial disorders, one of the extreme specialties of medicine.

While this is all lamentable, we now have the first “test case” for the mitochondrial autism notion, post concession. A family is arguing mitochondrial disorder (or an oxygen depletion disorder).

The case has gone through the first steps in the Court of Federal Claims (the “vaccine court”). The case hasn’t concluded, but a decision has been published. To summarize:

First, note that the parents are representing themselves, it appears. The decision notes:

On August 29, 2008, petitioners filed a Reply to the Order, making two assertions: (1) [The child] suffered from a mitochondrial disorder and oxygen depletion disorder which a later vaccination significantly aggravated, leading to autistic like symptoms (somewhat similar to the Hannah Poling case that respondent agreed to compensate); and (2) the vaccinations which [the child] received caused him mercury poisoning from thimerosal or ethyl mercury (which is the subject matter of the second round of autism cases in the Omnibus Autism Proceeding, the first round of cases having to do with MMR and autism).

Tthey seem to be both arguing the mitochondrial disorder idea and the Omnibus thimerosal theory. In support, they gave no expert medical reports. Instead, they submitted a single paper (which presumably is supposed to cover both, very different assertions):

by D.S. Baskin, et al., entitled “Thimerosal Induces DNA Breaks, Caspase-3 Activation, Membrane Damage, and Cell Death in Cultured Human Neurons and Fibroblasts,” published in 74 Toxicological Sciences (2003), available on the internet.

That’s really thin evidence (as discussed at some length by the Special Master). Some sort of expert report should link the theory to the specific child. The parents state:

They have not filed a medical report in support of their assertion of significant aggravation of [the child’s] autistic like disorder, claiming that no doctor would risk criticism from the medical community by providing such a report.

Anyone want to volunteer some names of people who would risk the criticism?

But, seriously, diagnosing a mitochondrial disorder is not a simple task. This isn’t something a parent (or David Kirby) can do by looking for similar markers to another case. Heck, it isn’t as though all the biomarkers for the conceded case are universally accepted by mitochondrial experts.

With such little support for the case, the Special Master was forced to conclude:

Petitioners have still not proved their assertion of significant aggravation.

Basically, the decision ends with a statement that the family has not made its case, but they have a chance to come back with a status report as to what their intentions are.

They have already signaled a possible intention:

Petitioners express an interest in suing civilly.

This case is built on even thinner evidence than most internet-discussion-group claims. At least with those, there are challenge tests, porphyrin tests or some other questionable test, together with the opinion of the doctor who ordered the questionable tests to support an idea of “mercury poisoning” or some such diagnosis. But here, we seem to have: the child is autistic, therefore it is mercury and/or mitochondrial disorder aggravated by vaccines.

The Special Master gave the family information on how to contact a lawyer familiar with the vaccine court. I hope, for their sake, they did. I doubt it will have much of an effect on their case, but at least they would have some advice as they move forward to civil court–where the expenses will be charged to the family.

Kirby launches torpedo at Verstraeten, sinks Geier

8 Oct

The thimerosal/autism study by Thomas Verstraeten is one of the big targets for those with the vaccines/mercury cause autism agenda. For what it’s worth, Autism’s False Prophets goes into the history of the Verstraeten study and clearly explains the history of that study.  Not surprisingly, the answer is somewhat different than you might find in, say, Evidence of Harm.

In his recent briefing on Capital Hill,  David Kirby took another jab at the Verstraeten study. He tried to assert that (a) the NIEHS claimed that the Vaccine Safety Datalink was unusable for autism studies and that (b) the CDC agreed. He was incorrect, and, luckily, a staffer caught Kirby at it.

Mr. Kirby is trying to explain his actions in a blog post in which he posts an open letter to that congressional staffer.

Let’s consider something here: the congressional staffer, an M.D., knew enough about the subject to catch David Kirby misquoting the NIEHS. I wouldn’t have been quick enough on my feet to catch the misquote.  Now, David Kirby wants to educate this gentleman. Frankly, the information should be flowing the other way. If Mr. Kirby had shown himself open to such education, say when EpiWonk made it abundantly clear (twice) what Mr. Kirby’s mistakes were, perhaps it would be worth the staffer’s time to discuss this with Mr. Kirby. That said, let’s take a look at Mr. Kirby’s letter.

In regards to Mr. Kirby’s misquotes, he has recently “clarified” his position.  He is writing to the Doctor who corrected him in his briefing here:

As you rightly pointed out (and as I concurred that day) I omitted an important detail in regards to Dr. Gerberdings’s letter to the Committee. I regret that, and never meant to mislead people in the room.

It was a rather artless sin of omission.

I think the lesson for me here is that, when you try to cram a two hour presentation into 25 minutes, it is wise to not include very complicated and, as you put it, “somewhat arcane” details that are difficult to explain in such a short period of time. In retrospect, I probably should have focused solely on the NIEHS report itself, and left the Gerberding letter out of the presentation entirely.

Mr. Kiby iscorrect, it is a confusing situation.  There are two documents–an NIEHS report and Dr. Gerberding’s response for the CDC. But, does that excuse misquoting the head of the CDC in his legislative briefing?

Here’s what David Kirby in his capital hill briefing “quoted” the NIEHS report as saying:

NIH: “We identified several areas of weakness that were judged to reduce the usefulness of the VSD for addressing the potential association between exposure to thimerosal and risk of ASD.”

That isn’t in either the NIEHS report or Dr. Gerberding’s response.  Here’s what Dr. Gerberding actually agreed to:

The panel identified several serious problems that were judged to reduce the usefulness of an ecologic study design using the VSD to address the potential association between thimerosal and the risk of AD/ASD.

Emphasis is mine.  But, we’ve already discussed that: Dr. Gerberding didn’t claim that the VSD has reduced usefulness in addressing the thimerosal/autism question. It made a claim that the ecological studies using the VSD had limitations. But, the recipient of Mr. Kirby’s letter would know that.

Back to Mr. Kirby’s open letter: David Kirby is now presenting his own interpretation of the NIEHS report, in place of Dr. Gerberding’s.

As I interpret things, the panel concluded that the database itself suffered from several weaknesses and limitations, which in turn reduced its usefulness for studies of autism risks from thimerosal (ie, Verstraeten) AND ALSO reduced the feasibility of future studies (ie, ecological ones) that are based on data collected within the VSD.

As EpiWonk aptly pointed out, Mr Kirby’s assertion is not the case. The NIEHS panel suggested a number of possible studies on autism using the VSD.  From the NIEHS report:

An alternate future study design that was viewed positively among panel members was a study of a high risk population, defined, in this instance, as siblings of individuals diagnosed with AD/ASD. A sibling cohort from the VSD would allow comparison of AD/ASD risk in siblings as a function of their thimerosal exposure through vaccination and the sample size would lend itself to supplemental data collection. A related study design based on sib-pairs or sets could be used to address discordant ASD/AD status in relation to thimerosal exposures. Another possibility that generated support by the panel was an expansion of the VSD study published by Verstraten et al (2004). The availability of several additional years of VSD data was seen as an opportunity to provide a more powerful test of any potential association between thimerosal and AD/ASD and would enable reconsideration of some aspects of the original study design (e.g., exclusion criteria). A related idea was to conduct a VSD retrospective cohort study using California-based MCOs linked with the California DDS, which would improve the diagnostic data and provide more complete ascertainment. For each of these designs, the ability to link medical records from mothers with those of their children was deemed critical.

As this reader interprets things, NIEHS seems to find that there is quite a bit of value in the VSD for studying autism, including an expansion of the Verstraeten study.

EpiWonk made the point first, but how can the NIEHS say that Verstraeten study design is not a good and that future use of the VSD is not useful, while at the same time suggest expanding Verstraeten?

The bottom line is that there are limitations to using the VSD alone in ecological studies of autism. One can overcome these limitations by going to chart reviews and other methods–as used in Verstraeten et al. and, more importantly, by VSD studies ongoing at CDC (one of which looks at autism).  As noted by Dr. Gerberding:

The VSD currently has a number of priority studies underway to address a range of important immunization safety questions, none of which utilize an ecologic study design. Instead, these current studies, including one study evaluating associations between thimerosal-containing
vaccines and autism, all evaluate individual-level data. This typically involves the review of individual medical charts to confirm the vaccines each individual received as well as the outcomes being studied. Studies using individual rather than group data provide stronger scientific evidence.

Mr. Kirby seems to be neglecting the fact that the CDC’s ongoing study (and the Verstraeten study) is not soley dependent on the VSD for the data.  He seems to be arguing that since the VSD, as a single data source, has limitations, the CDC can’t use it for any study. It’s like saying,

But, let’s take a closer look at what this says….and what Mr. Kirby is saying: The VSD on it’s own is not a good source of data to look at the thimerosal/autism question.

Now, anyone remember all the consternation that has been created by the fact that the VSD is not open to just any outside researcher?  Why should the VSD be opened to, say, Mark and David Geier?  Could they do the individual level data collection needed to make a VSD study valuable?

Apparently not. Recall this study by the Heather Young and the Geiers: Thimerosal exposure in infants and neurodevelopmental disorders: An assessment of computerized medical records in the Vaccine Safety Datalink

This was a study paid for by the petitioners in the Omnibus proceding.   It, on it’s own, was bad enough that EpiWonk disassembled it.  Twice.

The recent Heather Young/Geier paper didn’t look at individual level data.  Any future study by the Geiers almost certainly wouldn’t as well.  Given the argument by the NIEHS, Dr. Gerberding…and David Kirby, the above study and any proposed study by the Geiers on the VSD would be useless.

Some how I doubt Mr. Kirby will make statements confirming that. But, I can’t see how he could hold any other opinion, given the arguments he, himself, has made.

Good Information being spread on Capital Hill

2 Oct

Last week, there was a briefing for U.S. legislators by Mr. David Kirby and Mr. Mark Blaxill. As you can imagine, the topic was vaccines and autism. As you can imagine, there were some inaccuracies and there was at least one outright misrepresentation.

I applauded an effort by Amy Pisani of Every Child By Two, who wrote the staffers ahead of the meeting. I was also appreciative of a letter by Voices For Vaccines.

Well, now I give a great big thank you to Congressman Waxman. Congressman Waxman is the chair of the Congressional Committee on Oversight and Reform. To put that in perspective, “Oversight and Reform” is the committee that Congressman Dan Burton used to investigate autism and vaccines. (a very good discussion of what went wrong there is in Autism’s False Prophets).

Congressman Waxman’s office sent out a “Dear Colleague” letter. It is a good, succinct discussion of autism and vaccines, and, as such, I think it worth posting. And forwarding to people who may have questions about this issue.

It’s also worth thanking Congressman Waxman for taking the time to work on autism issues.

Resources Regarding Vaccines and Autism

October 1, 2008

Dear Colleague,

Since 1998 some people have been raising concerns that there may be an
association between childhood immunizations and autism spectrum
disorder. I am writing to let you and your staff know that there are a
number of resources available to understand what the science says
about whether vaccines could contribute to autism.

Institute of Medicine report on vaccines and autism

In 1999 the Department of Health and Human Services contracted with
the Institute of Medicine (IOM) to review a number of different
vaccine safety issues and to make recommendations about future
research needs. IOM convened a committee of experts that was carefully
vetted for conflicts of interest. The committee issued nine reports,
all of which are available on line at: http://www.iom.edu/CMS/3793/4705.aspx.

In 2004, the committee issued its final report, which analyzed the
studies, published and unpublished, that looked at two theories:
whether the Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR) vaccine could cause autism;
and whether the mercury-containing vaccine preservative thimerosal
could cause autism. The committee concluded that the “evidence favors
rejection of a causal relationship between thimerosal-containing
vaccines and autism” and the committee also concluded that the
“evidence favors rejection of a causal relationship between MMR
vaccine and autism.” This report is available at:
http://www.iom.edu/CMS/3793/4705/20155.aspx.

Other resources on vaccines and vaccine safety

Since the IOM report was published there have been additional studies
that looked at a possible link between vaccines and autism. Below are
several other links to government or private organizations with
helpful information about the latest research into vaccines, vaccine
safety, and autism and vaccines:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/vaccines.htm

National Network for Immunization Information
http://www.immunizationinfo.org

Institute for Vaccine Safety at Johns Hopkins University
http://www.vaccinesafety.edu

American Academy of Pediatrics
http://www.aap.org/healthtopics/Immunizations.cfm

Information regarding mitochondrial disorders and vaccines

Another concern that has received some attention is whether people
with mitochondrial disorders are more susceptible to vaccine injury.
This issue was in the media after it became public that in 2007, the
Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP), the no-fault compensation
program for people who have been injured by immunizations, compensated
nine-year-old Hannah Poling for injuries she sustained from her
immunizations. Hannah Poling suffered from a mitochondrial disorder,
which is a genetic or acquired defect in the part of each cell that
helps produce energy. People with these disorders are susceptible to a
number of stressors, including fever, illness, dehydration and certain
kinds of medication. In Hannah Poling’s case, after her immunizations
she developed a fever, lethargy, irritability, and other symptoms of
encephalopathy. These symptoms worsened over a period of months to
includ! e muscle weakness and features of autism. Instead of taking
this case to the vaccine court, the VICP conceded the case and agreed
to compensate Hannah Poling.

This case raised concerns that there may be an association between
mitochondrial disorders and autism. Mitochondrial disorders are poorly
understood and there is much research that needs to be done. However,
according to the United Mitochondrial Disease Foundation: “There are
no scientific studies documenting that childhood vaccinations cause
mitochondrial diseases or worsen mitochondrial disease symptoms. In
the absence of scientific evidence, the UMDF cannot confirm any
association between mitochondrial diseases and vaccines.” This
statement is available at: http://www.umdf.org/site/c.dnJEKLNqFoG/b.3616911/apps/s/content.asp?ct=5087517.

Following this case, NIH, HHS, and CDC organized a workshop entitled
“Mitochondrial Encephalopathies: Potential Relationships to Autism.”
The workshop was held on June 29, 2008 in order to explore this
complicated topic and panelists included experts from around the
country. The proceedings from this workshop state that because
acquired infections and the associated inflammatory responses are a
known trigger for mitochondrial disease, “the workshop panelists
strongly encourage vaccinations in the hundreds of children they treat
for mitochondrial disease.” A summary of this workshop is available
at: http://www.ninds.nih.gov/news_and_events/proceedings/20090629_mitochondrial.htm

CDC has additional information on its website at:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/mitochondrial.htm

I hope you find these links useful. If you are interested in other
resources, please do not hesitate to call Sarah Despres or Dr. Stephen
Cha on my staff at 5-5056.

Sincerely,

/s
HENRY A. WAXMAN
Member of Congress

Vaccines on the Hill III

26 Sep

Somehow I never thought there would be a “Vaccines on the Hill II”, much less III. That said, a question from Lisa (from about.autism.com) got me thinking and, well, I’d rather do this a post than a response.

I admit, this isn’t directly related to her comment, who commented on how David Kirby makes a point of stating he is not “anti-vaccine”.

Instead this is about frustrations with Mr. Kirby. As an example, let’s discuss how Mr. Kirby “quoted” a response that the CDC made to an NEIHS report in his congressional briefing. Yes, “quoted” is in quotes for a good reason.

On his presentation, page six, Mr. Kirby “quotes” (there’s those quotation marks again!) the NIEHS report:

NIH: “We identified several areas of weakness that were judged to reduce the usefulness of the VSD for addressing the potential association between exposure to thimerosal and risk of ASD.”

With the response from Dr. Gerberding at CDC of:

Gerberding General Response: CDC CONCURS

What was the real quote?

The panel identified several serious problems that were judged to reduce the usefulness of an ecologic study design using the VSD to address the potential association between thimerosal and the risk of AD/ASD.

Emphasis mine.

Yep. Mr. Kirby left out the fact that the NIEHS was specifically talking about ecological studies.

Makes a BIG difference in how that phrase is interpreted. This was a major part of two epiwonk blog posts, here and here. Mr. Kirby’s original blog post on this was retracted, so Mr. Kirby is well aware of the importance of the fact that the NIEHS limited the statement to ecological studies.

By the way, the real CDC response?

CDC Response: CDC concurs with this conclusion and does not plan to use VSD for ecological studies.

They did most certainly not concur with the statement that Mr Kirby “quoted”. Instead, they see the limitation for ecological studies. There is strength in using the VSD. They don’t see it as valuable for discussing the thimerosal/autism question, as we’ve discussed before.

Here’s the NEIHS report, and here, the CDC response.

Mr. Kirby’s “quote” of the NIH was incorrect. This isn’t incorrect in the way Dan Olmsted thinks that “has” vs. “have” is an important difference. No, the quote by Mr. Kirby completely changed the very meaning of the statement that NIEHS made and implied the CDC concurred with.

It sounds like Mr Kirby was caught red-handed trying it too, by a staffer who obviously came in very well informed. The bright side is that the legislature got an idea of Mr. Kirby’s tactics. The down side, they may not realize that the entire autism community is not represented by Mr. Kirby and his tactics.

This misinformation effort has already had an effect. Mr. Kirby’s original treatment of the CDC response made people think that the CDC position is that the Verstraten study was flawed. As epiwonk makes very clear, the opposite is true. The NIEHS panel suggested expanding the Verstraten study (which was not ecological) with additional years.

And people wonder why I get frustrated with Mr. Kirby.

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