In the days following the latest in an increasingly long line of studies repudiating the MMR/autism hypothesis, adherents to this belief system have clung wildly to the flotsam and jetsam that is pretty much all that is left to hang on to.
On the ADC Online forum, John Stone encapsulates this position with a letter I’ll go through point by point:
Of the original 1770 Special Educational Needs (SEN)cases in this study 255 were Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Of the 1770 735 dropped out, then a further 780 were excluded for reasons which are not transparent. 255 were left (a different 255 from before): some ASD, some just SEN but we do not know in what proportion. Then, exactly 100 were excluded because of inadequate blood tests. Of the remainder 101 had ASD (less the 40 per cent of the original 255 autistic cases). None is reported to have bowel disease (the sub-group of Wakefield’s study) or adverse reaction to MMR.
This is numerical hoopla and means nothing. The key to Stone’s frustration is the last sentence of this paragraph and the first one of the next:
It is not clear what the scientific purpose of this study is…….None is reported to have bowel disease (the sub-group of Wakefield’s study) or adverse reaction to MMR. This, of course, makes this a distinct group from the children referred to Andrew Wakefield and his colleagues at the Paediatric Gastroenterology department of the Royal Free Hospital in the 1990s and slighlty beyond.
Stone is arguing that because none of the ASD subjects were found to have bowel issues that disqualifies them as being like Wakefield’s subjects.
Methinks someone has missed the point.
The issue is one of clinical science. Wakefield claims to have found a clinical link between the measles live virus component of the MMR which causes bowel issues with associated autism. However, the Cedillo hearings drove a rather large nail into that particular coffin.
Professor Stephen Bustin is the worlds foremost PCR expert. Bustin uses PCR every day in his work, he has 14 papers in the peer reviewed literature on PCR, over 8 book chapters and is personally the author of the ‘A to Z of Quantitative PCR’ which is considered ‘the bible’ of PCR. One of his papers has been cited over 1,000 times. Another has been cited over 500 times. He both organises and speaks at international PCR conferences. His testimony regarding the Unigentics lab used to find the measles virus in the guts of these autistic kids was invaluable.
Bustin examined the Unigentics lab findings and procedures in great detail (spending over 1,500 hours in the lab itself) and found that the lab (which has now gone bust as a business) made a fairly basic error of science when looking at Wakefield’s samples:
“…Now, these are from samples that should have been discarded according to the SOP from Unigenetics because there was no GAPDH present, i.e., the RNA is degraded. If you look at the Cts for the F-gene which they reported as positive you can see they’re the same. Now, if this is degraded RNA yet I’m getting the same Cts for my F-gene target this can’t be RNA because it would have been degraded.
That’s what the GAPDH showed me. Now, if it isn’t RNA it has to be DNA. If it is DNA it can’t be measles virus it has to be a contaminant.”
In other words, the samples Wakefield provided to Unigentics were useless because Unigenetics own documented lab procedure says they were. But they used them anyway. The results were a bombshell. If the RNA is useless (which the lab process defines it as being) it can’t actually be RNA. If its not RNA then it must be DNA and if its DNA then it can’t be measles virus because measles virus doesn’t exist as DNA.
What the Unigentics lab detected in Wakefield’s samples were contaminants. There’s no way that Unigentics could possibly have been detecting measles virus.
This was backed up by Chadwick who checked Wakefield’s work (at his request). He also did a PCR test.
Q. What results did you receive from the gut biopsy materials for measles RNA?
A. They were all negative.Q. They were always negative?
A. Yes. There were a few cases of false positive results, which I used a method to see whether they were real positive results or false positive, and in every case they turned out to be false positive results. Essentially all the samples tested were negative.Q. Did you inform Dr. Wakefield of the negative results?
A. Yes. Yes.
So not only are the samples Wakefield provided useless, the testing he asked Chadwick to perform showed they were useless. And yet he went ahead anyway.
Its also worth noting that every subsequent piece of MMR science (save one unpublished poster presentation) went through Unigenetics lab and went through the same process as Wakefield’s.
So lets be frank – the idea that Wakefield found measles virus in the gut of autistic kids is plain and simply wrong. He screwed up.
The issue then becomes one of probabilities: given that there is no scientific reason to believe MMR causes autism with bowel disorders, it is nonsensical to only look at autistic kids with bowel disorders. And in answer to Stone’s question ‘It is not clear what the scientific purpose of this study is…’ the answer is plain – it has scientifically illustrated that autistic kids had exactly the same measles antibody response as non-autistic kids. No difference. At all.
Stone continues to attempt to muddy the scientific waters:
There is presently not enough consensus about the etiology of ASD to assume there is any single origin, nor anything to rule out ASD subjects having gut symptoms which justify on occasion invasive procedures. The NAS apparently consider that there is a sub-group which is being denied sympathy, investigation or treatment, and this is in itself troubling. It also suggests that this study is not representative since no such cases are included, and it does not address their problems.
This is slipperiness taken to almost artistic levels. Stone is quite right there is no consensus about etiology of autism. That does not mean we cannot say what doesn’t cause it though. And based on the available science, MMR ain’t it.
The paper further does not attempt to claim that autistic kids don’t have gastric issues and Stone’s implication that it does and his attempt to gain the mainstream ground by invoking the name of the NAS is grasping and dishonestly representative of the NAS’s statement. They do _not_ claim, infer or consider that there is any such sub-group. What they suggest is that the MMR debacle has led to some doctors dismissing some parents fears about their kids bowel issues as hysteria. This is, of course, unacceptable but Stone is simply attempting to manipulate the NAS statement for his own ends.
“The NAS warning relates to the GMC hearing involving doctors Wakefield, Walker-Smith and Murch which is set to resume on 25 March approaching. I do not think it is being unduly cynical to query the publication of this study at the present time as a media event, bearing in mind that it seems to have been carried out five or six years ago.”
This is either again deliberately misleading or an example of conspiracy hysteria. From what I can tell the study was commissioned five/six years ago. Not carried out.
Stone concludes:
Meanwhile, the plight of autistic children with gastro- intestinal symptoms is excluded both from the study and public attention, as if they did not exist. The NAS statement warned of “creating further confusion” and this is precisely what this study and its media exposure has done.
Children with gastro issues and autism were not ‘excluded’ they just weren’t found. Maybe they really don’t exist? Maybe Stone would’ve preferred that the study authors fabricate a few subjects?
The bottom line of this gastro/autism issue is that there is no science to back up the opinion Stone has. On the other hand there is plenty of science that indicates there is no link between MMR and autism. Far from this study creating confusion, it has simply shown up the shortcomings of Wakefield’s bad science and Stone and his ilk are in reality the people desperately attempting to create enough confusion for Wakefield to escape unscathed.
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