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Bad Science Part 1: Randomisation

22 Nov

I’ve finally finished ‘Bad Science’ by Ben Goldacre and I intend to give this a bit more than just a review. I intend to take certain bits from it and blog them in order to explain why the scientific concepts you hear expounded about on this blog and others are important – or more accurately, why the lack of them is important. But before I do, here’s a (now traditional) short review of Bad Science by Ben Goldacre: Holy shit this book is good, go buy it (Amazon UK, US, unavailable in Canada).

It is _not_ an autism book, although autism is discussed via the chapter on MMR. However, it will give those who wish to discuss science with some degree of confidence a primer in the basics. First thing I want to talk about is the concept of Randomisation:

Here’s Ben discussing the concept in relation to a Homeopathy study:

Randomisation is another basic concept in clinical trials. We randomly assign patients to the placebo sugar pill group or the homeopathy sugar pill group, because otherwise there is a risk that the doctor or homeopath – consciously or unconsciously – will put patients who they think might do well into the homeopathy group and the no-hopers into the placebo group, thus rigging the results.

(page 48)

The issue with randomisation is not that it is never done – Ben mentions that it is rare to find a study so bad that randomisation is not done _at all_ – but that it is done poorly. Poor examples of ‘randomisation’ (e.g. methods that aren’t really random) include: selecting every other patient to a group depending on which order they sign up to the study i.e. Patient 1 goes into the control group, patient 2 into the non-control group, patient 3 into the control group etc etc, last digit of date of birth, date seen in clinic etc. Ben says that some studies claim to randomise patients by tossing a coin!

All these are open to conscious or unconscious manipulation by the researcher signing people up and are thus not trustworthy.

Ben describes the state of the art randomisation method as being:

1) Sign the patient up to the study
2) Make them call a special phone number
3) Someone at the other end answers the call
4) This person uses a computerised randomisation programme.

This is good because the actual research team are pretty much removed from the physical process of randomisation.

Ben goes on to ask: does randomisation matter?

Turns out it really does:

….people have studied the effect of randomisation in large numbers of trial and found that the ones with dodgy methods of randomisation overestimate treatments effects by 41%.

(Page 50)

Worse that that are the (many it seems) studies where the paper doesn’t tell you _what_ methods of randomisation was used, usually a clear red flag that the study was poorly designed and executed.

…trials with unclear methods of randomisation overstate treatment effects by 30%…..

(Page 50)

This is fascinating stuff from Ben and I promise there’s more to come. I hope this mini-series of articles from Ben’s excellent book will give you the impetus to keep reading when discussions evolve into exchanges of a technical nature. Of course, it is no substitute for buying the book itself, something I urge you to do post haste.

Autism Myths

11 Nov

It is my great pleasure to release my latest website – Autism Myths. Its not a blog, its more like a collection of blog posts on very specific subjects regarding autism.

Topics referenced so far are:

The IOM Are Afraid to Look At Susceptibility Groups
The Myth That Autistic Children Can’t Develop
The Myth of No Autistic Adults
The ‘Leaky Gut’ Hypothesis
The Myth of Overwhelming Immunity
Misleading Lab Reports
“Mrs Toast”
The Autism Epidemic
The Verstraten Paper
The Poling Concession
The Simpsonwood Conspiracy
The Amish Anomaly

Please use the contact page to send me comments and suggestions but if you do suggest stuff, please include a link to a blog entry that you think best dispels the myth in question. Please further note that the site is *not* just about vaccines, it is about all myths related to autism.

David Kirby clarifies?

31 Oct

David is obviously a reader of this blog or Autism Vox or Respectful Insolence as these are (so far as I know) the three blogs that commented on his claim that thimerosal was no longer the ‘smoking gun’ for autism causation. Here’s the quote from the New Jersey Star Ledger:

David Kirby, a journalist and author of “Evidence of Harm: Mercury in Vaccines and the Autism Epidemic: A Medical Controversy,” said he believed that thimerosal, which still exists in trace amounts in some childhood vaccines, was no longer the “smoking gun.” Several national studies have found no connection, and a California study found that, even after thimerosal was removed from vaccines, diagnoses of autism continued to rise.

Now that’s a pretty unequivocal statement. Even so, David felt the need to clarify on Age of Autism yesterday:

The term “smoking gun” comes from Sherlock Holmes…..[]….To this writer’s mind…….the term means the “one and only cause,”.

I do not believe that thimerosal is the one and only cause of autism.

Now I’m confused. In the quote from the New Jersey Star Ledger David says thimerosal is no longer the cause of autism. In his own quote on AoA he says it is. Here is the quote that uses the words ‘smoking gun’:

The triggers, as I mentioned, might include, unfortunately, everything, and when I wrote my book I was hopeful that maybe thimerosal was the smoking gun. And if we just got mercury out of vaccines, autism would rapidly reduce. And we haven’t seen that happen yet. But I did say if that does not happen then that’s bad news; now we’re back to square one. It would have been so much nicer, and easier, and cleaner to say, gosh, it was the mercury in the vaccines and now we can take it out and the case is closed. That didn’t happen, and we need to look at everything. And as I said, not only the individual vaccine ingredients, but also the cumulative effects of so many vaccines at once.

So, this then as people said to me, is not David saying ‘its not thiomersal’, its David saying its not just thimerosal.

I’m kind of saddened by this. As David himself says:

There has been so much debate over ‘What is THE cause?’ And for a long time in this country, we were fixated on thimerosal, the vaccine preservative, and I share some of the blame for that because my book focused mostly on thimerosal.

Fixated is the right word. Some of us over and over and over were constantly telling people it couldn’t possibly – based on the available data – be thimerosal. And yet this stopped no-one from saying it was. More importantly it stopped no one from chelating autistic kids needlessly for ‘mercury poisoning’ that didn’t actually exist.

David now officially joins with Jenny McCarthy and the new side of autism/vaccines. Its everything. Individual vaccines ingredients and the cumulative effects of so many vaccines at once. My question is why? What we have here is an instance where a hypotheses was tested and failed to be accurate. It took 10 years for people who believe David to get that message. Many still haven’t.

David also claims that his infamous claim about CDDS data in 2005 (that if the thiomersal hypothesis was correct CDDS rates would fall – they didn’t) failed to take into account key confounders –

1) Falling age of diagnosis
2) Thiomersal in the flu shot
3) Immigration
4) Rising levels of background mercury

With all due respect to David these are pretty shoddy. David asks if the caseload could’ve increased between 1995-96 due to recent falling age of diagnosis and aggressive early intervention. I’m not sure that 95-96 could really be considered recent.

As discussed by Do’C on Autism Street, the whole ‘mercury in flu shots’ thing is rather misleading:

…better than 90% of the 5 year olds in the relevant data set were not even vaccinated. Does the increase in flu shot uptake in this age group that occurred after 2003 even matter with respect to the California data? It doesn’t seem likely given that about 80% of kids in the relevant age group are not even vaccinated during the next couple of years. But aside from that, the ones who were vaccinated were decreasingly likely to receive a thimerosal containing flu shot at all.

I’m not sure what to make of the Immigration thing. It makes me feel a bit uncomfortable – its easy to blame ‘the outsiders’ but without any actual science (and I’m not of the opinion that running CDDS data through Excel is science, sorry) to back those beliefs up, it feels like an easy ‘out’.

This rising levels of background mercury thing puzzles me. It may well be happening. David didn’t source the three studies (I imagine one is the Palmer thing) but I don’t see what background mercury has to do with thiomersal? Maybe I’m missing the obvious here.

David went on to describe what mercury can do:

constriction of visual fields, impaired hearing, emotional disturbances, spastic movements, incontinence, groaning, shouting, dizziness, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and constipation,” (HERE) (otherwise known as every afternoon at the Redwood house, circa 1998 in my book)

That may well be ‘every afternoon in the Redwood house’ but its never been any time of the day in my house. None, I repeat, none of the symptoms David lists form part of the DSM (IV). Whatever it was causing those symptoms every afternoon in the Redwood household, it had nothing to do with autism.

David closes by referring to a study published early this year. He says:

So, despite all the cries of innocence among mercury supporters, the California study authors insist that this trend has not been confirmed.

Not quite. Here’s the quote from the Medical News Today article:

They also cautioned that the evaluation of the trends needs to continue in order to confirm their findings for the children born more recently.

What they’re saying is that their conclusion for the data they’ve looked at is:

The DDS data do not show any recent decrease in autism in California despite the exclusion of more than trace levels of thimerosal from nearly all childhood vaccines. The DDS data do not support the hypothesis that exposure to thimerosal during childhood is a primary cause of autism.

but – quite reasonably – for children they haven’t looked at, they can’t speak for.

David Kirby – Thimerosal does not cause autism

29 Oct

In something of a jaw-on-chest admission, David has finally admitted that thimerosal does not cause autism:

David Kirby, a journalist and author of “Evidence of Harm: Mercury in Vaccines and the Autism Epidemic: A Medical Controversy,” said he believed that thimerosal, which still exists in trace amounts in some childhood vaccines, was no longer the “smoking gun.” Several national studies have found no connection, and a California study found that, even after thimerosal was removed from vaccines, diagnoses of autism continued to rise.

I would go on to say then that the claim that mercury in vaccines ever caused a never-established autism ‘epidemic’ needs to be retracted also. I would further like to see David (who has appeared on TV, Radio and in the press speaking as if thimerosal was definitely the cause) question his previous belief that this was ever a medical controversy.

We need to be clear on this issue. In the US, the idea that mercury in vaccines cause autism is the reason so many parents are not vaccinating their children. David was the chief media spokesperson in this belief and whilst it is gratifying to hear him publicly admit thimerosal does not cause autism – it needs to be proclaimed widely and David needs be much more public than this.

However, its not all good.

But, he said, the links between vaccines and conditions like autism are still strong and more research is needed.

Conditions like autism or autism?

David seems to have moved from targetting thimerosal to simply targeting vaccines in general. Contrary to his statement that there are strong links between autism and vaccines, the fact is that there are none. No decent science supports this hypotheses and (with apologies to David) he has a now self-admittedly bad track record when talking about ‘strong links’ between vaccines and autism. David’s ‘strong link‘ between thiomersal and autism was CDDS data and we all know how that one turned out. I’d ask David to please consider very carefully his ideas about ‘strong links’ of today turning around to bite him in the future. Does international public health really need another three/four year gambol through the wilderness based on a non scientific ‘strong link’ which in reality is simply an opinion?

We all know the recent makeover the vaccine hypotheses has been getting. Generation Rescue now no longer claim that autism is simply mercury poisoning for which the cure is two years chelation resulting in a child 100% neurotypical, no different from their peers. SafeMinds – an organisation dedicated to Mercury in their very name – attack MMR, a vaccine that has never contained mercury. Jenny McCarthy is now on board and gives credence to the idea that an average parent (such as myself) knows more about the sciences of medicine, epidemiology, toxicology etc etc than specialists who have spent years in their field. Whilst at the same time Ms McCarthy simply cannot keep her story straight about incidents from her book or even when her son was recovered or not.

The inconsistencies mount and mount and whilst I am glad that David has admitted the non-role of thimerosal in autism causation this is simply the tip of the iceberg. Are Generation Rescue, SafeMinds, NAA, TreatingAutism, A-CHAMP queuing up to admit the same? Are these same organisation prepared to go back onto the same TV/Radio stations they first proudly proclaimed they knew the cause and had the cure and admit they were wrong? Or will it all continue to be held behind the Emerald City of the new ‘Green Our vaccines where we are urged to never, ever look behind the curtain in case we see the simple, obvious truth about the grand machinations?

Rethinking Expertise II

25 Oct

Recenty, I discussed a new book, Rethinking Expertise. The author took the position that there is a danger in the idea that everyone can be an expert on anything–all that is needed is an internet connection.

What I found most troublesome was the idea that “vaccine scares” were used as a prime example of this false expertise. At the time, I assumed that the author likely meant the autism/vaccine link.

The author, Harry Collins of Cardiff University, was recently interviewed by Ira Flatow of Science Friday. You an listen to the interview on the Science Friday website (or download from there).

In the interview, he specifically mentions the Wakefield/MMR scare.

The autism community is being used as a big example of the dangers of false-expertise. Not a good sign.

Sometimes the HuffPo gets it almost right

25 Oct

Regular readers will know of my concern regarding the HuffingtonPost and its clear antivax agenda. Kim Stagliano, David Kirby and (I think) Barbara Loe Fischer post there and whilst I don’t believe David has an antivax belief, I do think he is unfortunately promoting unfounded statements that feed antivax talking points (eg the claim HHS conceded vaccines caused Hannah Polings autism).

However, I was really pleased to see a post today in my Google Alerts from HuffPo that got it 95% right. Before I say why I have to clarify once again my position as a UK citizen and therefore my belief that I really shouldn’t take a position on the upcoming US elections. However, thats becoming increasingly difficult to do as I read such monumentally stupid things from McCain as:

[Sarah Palin knows]…more about autism then anyone I know…

Which I take to mean that the only person he knows with a connection to autism is Sarah Palin. Also his confused and pretty desperate looking pandering to the antivax crowd is downright annoying. But anyway.

The HuffPo post I’m referring to is Obama and autism by Elaine Hall. She describes:

Neal is my resident expert on autism. Now 14 years old, Neal was adopted from a Russian Orphanage at 23 months, and diagnosed with severe autism at age 3 . Neal is non verbal (or as we prefer to refer to him “a man of few words”) so when he speaks his truth through typing – WE LISTEN.

Me like.

Last January at one of his sessions with Darlene she asked, “”So, Neal, what have you been thinking about lately?”

“The Elections,” he typed on his Alpha Smart keyboard.

“What about the elections?” asked Darlene.

“I’m for Obama, he typed.”

“Obama? Why?”

“Obama is for Autism, ” he finished.

That evening my husband and I Googled Obama and Autism. And there it was, pages and pages from people with autism. Supporting Obama.

Me like even more.

This tells me a number of things. First it tells me that Elaine Hall and her partner are smart enough to see their autistic son as the resident autism expert. What a refreshing attitude. Second it tells me that when their expert speaks – THEY LISTEN. Also a refreshing attitude. Thirdly it tells me that someone being non-verbal does not mean they cannot communicate. I can think of more than a few people who read this blog who need that lesson drummed into their heads. Fourthly, it tells me that autistic people by and large support Obama. This means (for whatever the opinion of a non-voting Brit is worth) that I’m for Obama too.

Now, I said at the start of this piece that HuffPo only got it 95% right. They would’ve got it 100% right if they’d let Neal do the typing. However, he is only 14 and maybe thats why he’s not contributing publicly just yet. For now, I’m more than happy to read Elaine Hall’s words. This is from the front page of her website The Miracle Project:

The Miracle Project is a theatre and film arts program for children with special needs and their typically developing siblings and peers. Our mission is to provide a loving, accepting nurturing environment which celebrates and honors the unique and often unrecognized talents of these young people by guiding them through creative workshops and artistic programs.

Thank you Elaine Hall and thank you Neal. I’ll be looking out for more from both of you.

Story Time With Darwin

24 Oct

When Autism’s False Prophets hit the shelves–heck even before–there was a lot of buzz in the online community. Lot’s of reviews were posted on blogs. There seemed to be a strong correlation between people who actually read the book and people who favorably reviewed the book. AFP was chosen for the Science Blogs Book Club.

There have been a lot of approaches to discussing Autism’s False Prophets online, but I don’t think I would have ever predicted this:

Darwin-AFP Introduction

Yep, someone (not just someone, and autistic adult) reading from Autism’s False Prophets.

I saw that video and thought, “AFP isn’t a really long book, but there’s no way that this guy can cover much of the book.”

I underestimated the will and stamina of Darwin. He has 59 videos up. He’s at least to chapter 8.

Here’s a “commercial” for the YouTube series. You gotta click on this one. It’s short, and made me laugh out loud.

Darwin-AFP commercial

Note: I’m having a little trouble embedding the YouTube videos. I hope to figure that out soon.

Savage Autism

19 Oct

So Denis Leary, one time comedian and currently insulting disabled children, has joined forces with that other prime idiot Micheal Savage to call autistic kids dumb:

There is a huge boom in autism right now because inattentive mothers and competitive dads want an explanation for why their dumb-ass kids can’t compete academically, so they throw money into the happy laps of shrinks.

So, whilst I wipe away the tears of mirth (and only so recently after I had to sew my head back on after I laughed my head off at Tropic Thunder) from my eyes I think to myself – what is it about autism that attracts so much ire from comedians? Well, if I listened to silly people like Ginger Taylor, I’d think it was the CDC’s fault:

It is AAP and CDC’s job to investigate illness and educate the public on said illnesses, but every time a health professional gets on TV and utters the ignorant words, “Mysterious disorder, no know cause or cure” they make one more Dennis Leary, one more Michael Savage…

Thats right, by telling the scientific truth, the AAP and CDC – not only evil promoters of the evil vaccines – also ‘make’ Micheal savage and Denis Leary say stupid things.

Newsflash Ginger – you just said a stoopid thing too. Nobody makes people like savage and Leary say these things. They say it because deep down, they really believe it. Just like Tom Cruise and the other idiot Scientologists really believe that autism doesn’t exist (despite them getting involved with DAN!), the likes of Savage and Leary really believe that parents like you and I _are_ lazy. And its nothing to do with vaccines and its nothing to do with causes. Its to do with lazy thinking.

Ginger goes on to ask:

Or are you perhaps hoping to be able to up the ante and replace the phrase “Refrigerator Mother” with the phrase “Münchhausen Mother”?

Newsflash Number two Ginger – some of your Mother Warrior friends are pretty close to that right now. Not that long ago I posted an entry that described parents chelating 13 month old babies. And here’s a snippet from another Mother Warrior:

My son is 6 and I have to hold him down for the IVs – we’ve done 10. Today he got poked 3 times and has purple hands from blowing veins.

Yummy.

Newsflash Number three Ginger. Although you firmly believe otherwise, there is no science to support the beliefs you have about vaccines and no science to support the ‘treatments’ these people are doing to their children. Without any sort of evidence at all what you and your fellow Mother Warriors are doing _is_ child experimentation. Maybe you should give some thought to the possibility that Savage and Leary are being fed by the endless stream of middleclass know-nothings who think that they know everything there is to know about vaccines? Just a thought

Anyway, I put together a little something for us all to get a little payback against the idiots in celebville. Enjoy

Creativity

15 Oct

I was motivated.
And I was creative. I was in a process of creating a world record.
My Creativity had nothing to do with aesthetic taste that expects an applause or get some kind of price tag attached to it.
My creativity was provoking much stir and turbulence rocking all the boats that came in my way. I was taking big steps.
I was taking big steps as I was trying to test how far my longest footstep would and could reach. My footsteps were breaking their own created record that they made just moments ago. It was not my concern where I was breaking my record and creating a new one. I was in the middle of my classroom and I was supposed to complete some work sheet that was lying on the table like an anchored boat in the midst of a very turbulent sea. Creativity can happen anywhere.
I was that hurricane tossing those dolphins up and down the air to sea and back to air again right under the suspicious gaze of the whales.’All will get a chance.’
I was walking through the class around those desks and chairs, knees and elbows measuring my footsteops breaking record after record.
“Can someone please stop Tito?” Who knows whose voice it was!
Wasn’t that unjust? I have seen all kinds of world records getting created. Longest nail, longest mustache, longest stare, longest time under water and longest time hanging upside down. Creative people fill the wonderful world with all kinds of presentations that are displayed in world record books.
Just because I was in a classroom did not mean someone should stop me from being creative.
Someone did stop me.
So I had to postpone my world record for a new moment. I came back to the anchored boat. The whales could have their time later.

Tito Rajarshi Mukhopadhyay

The Truth About Andrew Wakefield

14 Oct

Regular readers will know that an eminent UK scientist writes the occasional guest blog piece for LB/RB. Here is his piece in the wake of the the Lipkin/Hornig study and the amusing claim that it vindicates Wakefield. Enjoy – Kev.

A scientist who has followed the Wakefield saga from the start sets the record straight.

According to recent newspaper reports Andrew Wakefield is planning to publish his account of the MMR/autism controversy next year, under the title The Lesser Truth. He is currently facing charges of gross professional misconduct at the General Medical Council (the case is expected to conclude in April 2009). Meanwhile, Wakefield and his supporters continue to claim that his research is valid and continue to smear the investigative journalist Brian Deer who exposed the conflicts of interest and dubious ethics – as well as the junk science – behind the claims of a link between MMR and autism. But it was Wakefield who was obliged to back down in court from his libel allegations against Deer. Wakefield was unable to contradict Deer’s claim that he has been “unremittingly evasive and dishonest in an effort to cover up his wrong-doing”.

Here are some truths about Wakefield and his research that may not find their way into The Lesser Truth:

Wakefield was never a respected researcher. His first foray into the Lancet was a controversial paper in 1989 saying that Crohn’s disease was due to problems in the blood supply to the gut (vasculitis). But this was wrong. In the early 1990s he was funded by pharmaceutical companies for research along the same lines, mostly in animal models, and produced a series of low-impact, forgettable, papers.

Wakefield first courted notoriety in 1993 when he claimed to have identified measles virus in Crohn’s disease gut tissue. Coincidently, measles virus can cause vasculitis so it is easy to understand how, from 1989 onwards, Wakefield had to find measles in Crohn’s. We now know this result was not possible: there is no measles virus in Crohn’s disease and the antibodies Wakefield used were not specific for measles either. In Wakefield’s own lab, a good molecular biologist, Nicholas Chadwick, could not find measles in Crohn’s by sensitive molecular techniques. However, Wakefield said he could find measles, using crude techniques using flawed reagents. Suppressing data which ruins your hypothesis is scientific fraud.

In February 1996 Wakefield cooked up the idea that MMR was involved in autism with the solicitor Richard Barr and parent activist Rosemary Kessick. He wrote a research protocol to get into the children’s colons to look for measles virus and gut damage, and applied to the Legal Aid Board for £55K.

By October 1996, the Royal Free team had scoped enough children to provide Wakefield with tissue samples so that his technician could look for measles virus in the guts of autistic children by immunohistochemistry. This was clearly research, without clinical or ethical justification.

By spring/summer 1997 Wakefield had enough cases and enough creative data for his story. He believed that autistic children had gut inflammation and most importantly, he believed that he had discovered the cause – measles virus persisting in the gut from MMR. Wakefield first tried to get this study published in Nature but it was rejected.

Towards the end of 1997 he sent an abstract of this work to be presented at Digestive Diseases Week in the USA in May 1998. He also submitted two papers to the Lancet. The first was accepted and published as the now notorious February 1998 Lancet paper. The second, the study claiming to have identified measles virus in the gut by immunohistochemistry, was rejected. To see Wakefield’s pictures of measles virus in the guts of autistic children go here (slides 37 and 38). The second paper was never published and has now mysteriously disappeared, although Wakefield showed it all over North America for years.

In 2000, Wakefield published a larger series on “autistic enterocolitis”, the new disease he claimed to have identified (Wakefield et al 2000 Enterocolitis in children with developmental disorders. American Journal of Gastroenterology 95: 2285-95). Analysis of the data in this paper has revealed that it was a scam: autistic children do not have a chronic inflammatory bowel disease. Normal findings in children were called pathology, pathological results were re-examined and sexed up, and new abnormalities were manufactured, all to make it appear that these children had gut inflammation (MacDonald TT, Domizio P. Autistic enterocolitis; is it a histopathological entity? Histopathology. 2007 Feb;50(3):371-9).

As the litigation in the UK began to heat up around 2000, the defendants (the MMR manufacturers) started to ask simple questions, such as, where is the paper which shows measles in the gut of autistic children? This was part of the MMR/autism story that was rejected by Nature and the Lancet. Who knows why Wakefield never published it? Maybe he realised it was junk since at the same time his identification of measles virus in Crohn’s disease had unravelled. Maybe he knew that the experts for the defence had looked at the data and the methodology and shown it was junk.

Wakefield now hooked up with Dublin pathologist John O’Leary. O’Leary was supposedly an expert in an unsound and discarded methodology called in cell PCR, which he claimed allowed him to amplify measles genetic material in tissue samples, in this case, from the guts of children with autism, and identify its cellular location. He also set up PCR techniques to amplify measles from samples of gut. The O’Leary lab’s studies of Wakefield’s gut biopsy specimens were published in another notorious paper (Uhlmann et al. Potential viral pathogenic mechanism for new variant inflammatory bowel disease. J Clinical Path: Mol Pathol 2002;55: 84-90).

In his testimony to the Omnibus Autism proceedings in Washington in summer 2007, London-based molecular biologist Professor Stephen Bustin showed the utter incompetence of O’Leary and his lab. He revealed the fact that a result was called positive if the sample contained measles virus but no DNA (a biological impossibility). He also revealed that if they analysed the same autistic sample 6 times and got a positive once, the patient was deemed to be positive, even though they were also getting positive measles results out of samples of pure water.

It seems that O’Leary has belatedly seen the error of his ways: in the recently published Hornig study, his lab – in common with other labs in the USA – failed to find measles in samples from autistic children (Hornig et al 2008 Lack of association between measles virus vaccine and autism with enteropathy: a case-control study. PLOS One 3(9):e3140). The attempts by Wakefield and his acolytes to claim that the Hornig study vindicates the Uhlmann paper are preposterous. Distancing himself from Wakefield as fast as is possible for any man of 20 stone, O’Leary cleaned up his lab and did things properly.

A review of the career of Andrew Wakefield is a trawl through the underbelly of science. Wakefield did not do experiments to seek the truth – he did experiments to confirm his own beliefs. He produced junk science for over a decade and did immense damage to patients with Crohn’s disease, and autistic children and their parents. Hopefully the GMC will nail the charlatan, and show some sympathy for the Royal Free clinicians who thought Wakefield was honest. The Andy Wakefield show has now moved to the USA where he can get the attention he craves and he can play the role of the selfless seeker of truth whom the establishment had to silence. Being a victim is a good career move for him. It will help Thoughtful House sell junk therapies for autism to desperate parents and allow Andy to live in a really big house, where he can entertain his showbiz friends. He really wanted to be a famous scientist, but he was rubbish at that, so he had to become (in)famous by other means.